4 ms·

It doesn't require "lying," per se. It just requires hiding the truth, kind of like what Musk has done for dozens of his other ventures. You do know that SpaceX

by sfblah 2mo ago

It doesn't require "lying," per se. It just requires hiding the truth, kind of like what Musk has done for dozens of his other ventures. You do know that SpaceX owns Twitter now, for example? You do know that he tricked his investors into giving his cousin a ton of money for his fake solar lease scheme? You do know that there's still no new roadster, something like 10 years after he accepted deposits for it? Even if we assume the numbers you're citing are right and this business is insanely profitable, won't this just invite competition? Or are you assuming the government will make SpaceX a monopoly, as it did for Tesla via neverending subsidies?

ggreer 2mo ago
I'm trying to address one very specific point: Whether Starlink is profitable. I'm not trying to litigate other business practices. The development timeline for a different's company's fancy car for the super-rich is not related to whether Starlink is profitable. You can't hide the truth if you say you're following GAAP in your SEC filings, and then publish numbers saying that Starlink is making money. Doing so risks massive fines and even criminal penalties. There are at least three other companies trying to build Starlink competitors (Amazon Leo, Guowang, & Qianfan). It's difficult for them to compete because unlike SpaceX, they don't have reusable boosters. Amazon is hoping that Blue Origin's New Glenn will be able to reduce their launch costs, but until their launch facility is rebuilt, Amazon has to rely on SpaceX, ULA, and Arianespace to get their satellites into orbit. The Chinese competitors also lack reusable spacecraft (and are also working to on that problem), so their launch costs are significantly higher. In the long term, whoever has the lowest launch costs will have the lowest prices, and SpaceX is betting that by the time others have reusable boosters (similar to Falcon 9), they'll have Starship operational. Time will tell if that works out for them. When you say things like, "Or are you assuming the government will make SpaceX a monopoly, as it did for Tesla via neverending subsidies?" I'm not sure how to respond. First, SpaceX is practically a monopoly because their launch costs are so much lower than the competition. They were responsible for approximately 80% of all mass put in orbit in 2025 (over 2,400 tons). They needed subsidies and government contracts when the company started, but that is no longer their main source of revenue. Second, I don't see how Tesla is a monopoly (there are many competing car companies), nor how they're significantly subsidized compared to other US car manufacturers. How much in subsidies do you think Tesla has gotten compared to their revenue over the years, and how do you think that compares to say, Ford?
- sfblah 2mo ago
  ChatGPT estimates Tesla has received $33B in government money directly and indirectly. My guess is it’s much more, since there are intangible benefits such as free marketing. For SpaceX the estimate is $35B+. The reason no one else has lower launch costs is because no one else has a guaranteed customer willing to waste money on pointless rocket launches. SpaceX’s technology isn’t even particularly novel. If space nerds want Star Trek to actually come true, an actually novel propulsion system is needed, not just scaled up versions of the same thing that’s been done since 1957. I am absolutely certain Musk has committed securities fraud, repeatedly. I hope that one day the US government returns to normal operations and he gets the Elizabeth Holmes treatment he deserves. And this has nothing to do with DOGE and woke politics. That’s the one thing where I thought he was on the right side of things, more or less. The problem is straight-up low-interest-rate-enabled financial crime.
  - inemesitaffia 1mo ago
    Has SpaceX committed fraud with respect to its Starlink numbers?

by sfblah 2mo ago

ggreer 2mo ago

I'm trying to address one very specific point: Whether Starlink is profitable. I'm not trying to litigate other business practices. The development timeline for a different's company's fancy car for the super-rich is not related to whether Starlink is profitable. You can't hide the truth if you say you're following GAAP in your SEC filings, and then publish numbers saying that Starlink is making money. Doing so risks massive fines and even criminal penalties. There are at least three other companies trying to build Starlink competitors (Amazon Leo, Guowang, & Qianfan). It's difficult for them to compete because unlike SpaceX, they don't have reusable boosters. Amazon is hoping that Blue Origin's New Glenn will be able to reduce their launch costs, but until their launch facility is rebuilt, Amazon has to rely on SpaceX, ULA, and Arianespace to get their satellites into orbit. The Chinese competitors also lack reusable spacecraft (and are also working to on that problem), so their launch costs are significantly higher. In the long term, whoever has the lowest launch costs will have the lowest prices, and SpaceX is betting that by the time others have reusable boosters (similar to Falcon 9), they'll have Starship operational. Time will tell if that works out for them. When you say things like, "Or are you assuming the government will make SpaceX a monopoly, as it did for Tesla via neverending subsidies?" I'm not sure how to respond. First, SpaceX is practically a monopoly because their launch costs are so much lower than the competition. They were responsible for approximately 80% of all mass put in orbit in 2025 (over 2,400 tons). They needed subsidies and government contracts when the company started, but that is no longer their main source of revenue. Second, I don't see how Tesla is a monopoly (there are many competing car companies), nor how they're significantly subsidized compared to other US car manufacturers. How much in subsidies do you think Tesla has gotten compared to their revenue over the years, and how do you think that compares to say, Ford?

sfblah 2mo ago
ChatGPT estimates Tesla has received $33B in government money directly and indirectly. My guess is it’s much more, since there are intangible benefits such as free marketing. For SpaceX the estimate is $35B+. The reason no one else has lower launch costs is because no one else has a guaranteed customer willing to waste money on pointless rocket launches. SpaceX’s technology isn’t even particularly novel. If space nerds want Star Trek to actually come true, an actually novel propulsion system is needed, not just scaled up versions of the same thing that’s been done since 1957. I am absolutely certain Musk has committed securities fraud, repeatedly. I hope that one day the US government returns to normal operations and he gets the Elizabeth Holmes treatment he deserves. And this has nothing to do with DOGE and woke politics. That’s the one thing where I thought he was on the right side of things, more or less. The problem is straight-up low-interest-rate-enabled financial crime.
- inemesitaffia 1mo ago
  Has SpaceX committed fraud with respect to its Starlink numbers?