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It's difficult to get past what comes across as an attempt to analytically substantiate moralistic reasoning. The contention that it's scandalous to raise capit

It's difficult to get past what comes across as an attempt to analytically substantiate moralistic reasoning. The contention that it's scandalous to raise capital to support an "automated future" then a dotted line to transhumanism and then the conclusion "it's a sham" feels shoddy.

sfblah 2mo ago
To me, the bigger issue with SpaceX is that there's no real argument for how space exploration will benefit humanity in any tangible way. Humans cannot live sustainably on Mars or the moon -- that's just a straight-up lie. Satellites add some value for sure, but it's pretty limited, which helps explain why most of the launches just support StarLink (which itself is probably unsustainable financially). This whole thing is just a bunch of space nerds pushing society down a terrible cul-de-sac which will lower quality of life in meaningful ways in the coming century.
- ggreer 2mo ago
  How is Starlink financially unsustainable? In 2025, Starlink generated $4.42 billion in income from $11.39 billion in revenue. Last quarter Starlink generated $1.6 billion in income from $4.3 billion in revenue.[1] So it's already a profitable enterprise, and their costs will likely go down over time as their launch capabilities improve. 1. https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2...
  - sfblah 2mo ago
    Here's an OK article on the topic: https://archive.is/eKCJu https://archive.is/eKCJu Starlink is almost certainly playing games with capex and depreciation to appear profitable when it is not. They're also using political patronage to get contracts from the government to do things that are probably worthless.
    - ggreer 2mo ago
      The income/profit numbers I used include depreciation, and even if you subtract all space capex from Starlink income, the program would still have a profit of $482 million last quarter. That's a very pessimistic estimate, as it includes costs for many things outside of what's necessary to build Starlink satellites and put them in orbit. The post you linked to seems to be incorrect on matters of fact. For example, it claims that, "...a large portion of the Starlink constellation consists of V1 and V1.5 satellites...". But of the 9,200 operational Starlink satellites today, 8,000 are v2 minis. Over half of the older v1 and v1.5 satellites have been deorbited, so they don't seem critical to its continued operation. The post also claims that higher RAM and fuel prices will increase the cost of Starlink significantly, but neither are significant costs. It costs SpaceX around $1.4 million to construct a v2 mini and put it into orbit. Even if each satellite had 1TB of RAM, that's what, $50k at the most? And propellant is only a few percent of launch costs. The main expenses (besides satellite construction) are building second stages, refurbishing boosters, and vehicle integration. If SpaceX is lying about Starlink's profitability, then it seems like the best way to show that is to focus on the numbers. They have 9,200 operational satellites and 12 million customers, meaning each satellite serves 1,300 customers on average. ARPU is $66/month, which means each satellite earns them $86k/month, or $5 million over a 5 year life. (And this is just consumer revenue, not B2B or government contracts.) Each Falcon 9 launch puts 24-29 v2 mini satellites in orbit, so each launch gets them $120-150 million in expected revenue. So the question is: is the cost to construct the satellites, launch them, and operate the network lower than that? SpaceX charges customers $76 million for a Falcon 9 launch, but their costs are much lower. (Probably around $20 million.) Even with pessimistic cost estimates, it's hard to find a way to make Starlink unprofitable without also making things like ISS missions or GPS satellite launches unprofitable. And if that's the case, then arguing over Starlink's profitability is academic, and the real issue is that SpaceX is blatantly lying in their SEC filings. I seriously doubt that is the case.
      - sfblah 2mo ago
        It doesn't require "lying," per se. It just requires hiding the truth, kind of like what Musk has done for dozens of his other ventures. You do know that SpaceX owns Twitter now, for example? You do know that he tricked his investors into giving his cousin a ton of money for his fake solar lease scheme? You do know that there's still no new roadster, something like 10 years after he accepted deposits for it? Even if we assume the numbers you're citing are right and this business is insanely profitable, won't this just invite competition? Or are you assuming the government will make SpaceX a monopoly, as it did for Tesla via neverending subsidies?

sfblah 2mo ago

To me, the bigger issue with SpaceX is that there's no real argument for how space exploration will benefit humanity in any tangible way. Humans cannot live sustainably on Mars or the moon -- that's just a straight-up lie. Satellites add some value for sure, but it's pretty limited, which helps explain why most of the launches just support StarLink (which itself is probably unsustainable financially). This whole thing is just a bunch of space nerds pushing society down a terrible cul-de-sac which will lower quality of life in meaningful ways in the coming century.

ggreer 2mo ago
How is Starlink financially unsustainable? In 2025, Starlink generated $4.42 billion in income from $11.39 billion in revenue. Last quarter Starlink generated $1.6 billion in income from $4.3 billion in revenue.[1] So it's already a profitable enterprise, and their costs will likely go down over time as their launch capabilities improve. 1. https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2...
- sfblah 2mo ago
  Here's an OK article on the topic: https://archive.is/eKCJu https://archive.is/eKCJu Starlink is almost certainly playing games with capex and depreciation to appear profitable when it is not. They're also using political patronage to get contracts from the government to do things that are probably worthless.
  - ggreer 2mo ago
    The income/profit numbers I used include depreciation, and even if you subtract all space capex from Starlink income, the program would still have a profit of $482 million last quarter. That's a very pessimistic estimate, as it includes costs for many things outside of what's necessary to build Starlink satellites and put them in orbit. The post you linked to seems to be incorrect on matters of fact. For example, it claims that, "...a large portion of the Starlink constellation consists of V1 and V1.5 satellites...". But of the 9,200 operational Starlink satellites today, 8,000 are v2 minis. Over half of the older v1 and v1.5 satellites have been deorbited, so they don't seem critical to its continued operation. The post also claims that higher RAM and fuel prices will increase the cost of Starlink significantly, but neither are significant costs. It costs SpaceX around $1.4 million to construct a v2 mini and put it into orbit. Even if each satellite had 1TB of RAM, that's what, $50k at the most? And propellant is only a few percent of launch costs. The main expenses (besides satellite construction) are building second stages, refurbishing boosters, and vehicle integration. If SpaceX is lying about Starlink's profitability, then it seems like the best way to show that is to focus on the numbers. They have 9,200 operational satellites and 12 million customers, meaning each satellite serves 1,300 customers on average. ARPU is $66/month, which means each satellite earns them $86k/month, or $5 million over a 5 year life. (And this is just consumer revenue, not B2B or government contracts.) Each Falcon 9 launch puts 24-29 v2 mini satellites in orbit, so each launch gets them $120-150 million in expected revenue. So the question is: is the cost to construct the satellites, launch them, and operate the network lower than that? SpaceX charges customers $76 million for a Falcon 9 launch, but their costs are much lower. (Probably around $20 million.) Even with pessimistic cost estimates, it's hard to find a way to make Starlink unprofitable without also making things like ISS missions or GPS satellite launches unprofitable. And if that's the case, then arguing over Starlink's profitability is academic, and the real issue is that SpaceX is blatantly lying in their SEC filings. I seriously doubt that is the case.
    - sfblah 2mo ago
      It doesn't require "lying," per se. It just requires hiding the truth, kind of like what Musk has done for dozens of his other ventures. You do know that SpaceX owns Twitter now, for example? You do know that he tricked his investors into giving his cousin a ton of money for his fake solar lease scheme? You do know that there's still no new roadster, something like 10 years after he accepted deposits for it? Even if we assume the numbers you're citing are right and this business is insanely profitable, won't this just invite competition? Or are you assuming the government will make SpaceX a monopoly, as it did for Tesla via neverending subsidies?