5 ms·
"The complexity of [a bottom-up, biologically-inspired model of the brain] will take a long time to overcome. Since Allen concedes that sufficient computational
by pdog 14y ago
"The complexity of [a bottom-up, biologically-inspired model of the brain] will take a long time to overcome. Since Allen concedes that sufficient computational power is already here, he seems to be arguing that it will take over a hundred years for us to have a detailed model of the human brain."
Given that Paul Allen donated $100 million in 2003 (and pledged an additional $300 million in 2012) to the Allen Brain Atlas[1] and Allen Institute for Brain Science[2], he probably knows more than most people about this. He certainly isn't betting against continued progress.
[1] - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Brain_Atlas http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Brain_Atlas
[2] - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Institute_for_Brain_Science http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Institute_for_Brain_Scien...
- return0 14y agoYet throwing money at sth does not make him an expert. Neuroscience is growing by leaps and bounds, ask any neuroscientist you know. It is indeed peculiar that he has a pessimistic view of it, but i would bet the best neuroscientists do not share that view.
- freshhawk 14y agoYou might want to check in with some neuroscientists. If you take offense at personal attacks at Kurzweil's sanity and intelligence you might want to ... prepare yourself. Imagine if a retired doctor started doing speaking tours about the future of the internet and computing and completely disagreed with the general consensus on HN about what could plausibly happen. Imagine what the comments about him on HN would be. They would view Allen's response as "not delusional" rather than pessimistic. I'm often surprised by how widespread singularity fans think belief in it is. Outside the tech industry, where people have spend their entire lives in a field that has seen no increasing exponential returns (other than problems solved purely by computation, which they consider a wonderful thing but often not a fundamental advancement to their field) there is very very little belief that "the singularity is near" or that kurzweils utopian interpretation of the singularity is correct.
- pknight 14y agoNeuroscience, as a science, might be growing by leaps and bounds but if you ask the average neuroscientist how much the field currently knows about how the brain works I think the answer will be a great deal more modest. It's very early days still I think. Not to mention the fact that nobody understands how and why consciousness works, which seems to me a key feature in eclipsing human intelligence with AI.
- salemh 14y agoJob prospects for neuroscientists are completely bleak. Which is a weird dynamic of "need" vs "supplied" (or, will pay/fund). It's rather sad.