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I wonder if this kind of analysis will give us a way to check if the frontier labs are waiting for the right moment to release their models. To me it feels obvi
by myworkaccount2 2mo ago
I wonder if this kind of analysis will give us a way to check if the frontier labs are waiting for the right moment to release their models.
To me it feels obvious that these companies are not releasing models as soon as they are done doing their post training / testing with any new model.
But there is no real way to know how much of this "waiting" any lab is doing, if we can get better estimates this way maybe we can gauge how far the open weights models really are.
- theplumber 2mo agoIt’s also worth to say that developers in general always have one more thing to fix before a release but if their hand is forced they can push it straight into main!
- simonw 2mo agoGiven how competitive the space is any form of waiting seems like it has more downside than upside to me. If you have the new "best" model you may only have a few weeks of time in the market before some other lab releases a new model that beats yours. This means you should get it out ASAP so you can maximize the time during which your model is "best". Once your model isn't best any more you're going to lose a lot of revenue to the new leader.
- AussieWog93 2mo agoI was about to "correct" you but then read the username - has the best model for agentic coding/sysadmin not just been Claude every single day since Opus 4.5 released last November?
- simonw 2mo agoI think GPT-5.6 Sol is giving Claude some genuine competition right now. I wouldn't say it beats it, but it's half the price and can solve most of the same problems.
- AussieWog93 2mo agoIt's funny you say that, I do see where you're coming from. I don't personally see cost as an issue, since I'm using it for a small business with a subsidised consumer subscription (subscription cost is negligible compared to efficiency returns from the last 6 months), but I have found myself going to GPT over Claude for specific niche tasks - namely visual web design and SVG graphics. It does a good job of more things than just pelicans - its N64 controllers are good too!
- PeterStuer 2mo agoThey are releasing as little as they can get away with. The Open Weights models are one of the big reasons we have seen the progress we have had.