The math works, based on the model. The model works based on the human guessing what the model should be. The real problem is that '25-sigma' events in the mode

The math works, based on the model. The model works based on the human guessing what the model should be. The real problem is that '25-sigma' events in the model are completely overshadowed by the not-all-that-small chance that the model is wrong. So talking about 25-sigma events as if it was something you could manage and control, when they are so far below the noise level of human error (or lack of information/understanding) is nonsense. It tells you something, but if you throw away the context, it will happily lie to you.