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No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait. A select group of tankers has been bypassing the Iranian "blockade" and ferrying oil across for months now.

No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait. A select group of tankers has been bypassing the Iranian "blockade" and ferrying oil across for months now. > US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday that the American military continues to escort barrels through Hormuz, and that about 13 million barrels a day are leaving the Gulf — half through the strait and half via bypass pipelines. US Central Command said on Wednesday that since early May, it has helped about 500 million barrels of oil leave Hormuz, suggesting roughly 5.6 million barrels a day over the period. https://gcaptain.com/hormuz-oil-shuttling-trade-is-picking-up-again-after-lull/ https://gcaptain.com/hormuz-oil-shuttling-trade-is-picking-u... https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/06/05/us-secretly-guides-ships-strait-hormuz-iran-war-tankers/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/06/05/us-secretl... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/dark-ships-and-oman-transfers-indicate-hormuz-transits-continue https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/dark-ship... https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-is-using-an-iranian-smuggling-tactic-sneak-oil-out-gulf-2026-06-16/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-is-using-an-irani...

kajaktum 2mo ago
There’s also a landed pipeline that is able to carry oil out to the west
- IAmBroom 2mo ago
  It's all of these. If you maintain any major export path, or decrease demand, prices rise far less than they would otherwise.
petesergeant 2mo ago
Adding in this chart: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/oil-producer-exports-from-gulf-countries-february-2026-june-2026 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/oil-producer-...
edaemon 2mo ago
That doesn't fully explain it, the amount of oil making it through the strait is a small fraction (less than 25%) of the amount that normally flows through there.
- deleted 2mo ago
  [deleted]
- tristanj 2mo ago
  Exports from the gulf are only down to 13 million barrels/day from 20 million barrels/day. Gulf exporters are not running at 25% capacity.
  - edaemon 2mo ago
    Right, but oil transiting the strait is down below 25% of its normal amount.
nextaccountic 2mo ago
> No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait. This Youtuber did a napkin math to show this effect, plus the land pipeline and other supply increases can't be the sole explanation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0 There was a sharp decrease in demand too, and China did it without domestic oil shortages
- tristanj 2mo ago
  That author greatly overstates China’s role as the single savior and doesn't address the covert fleet of tankers doing daily blockade runs. He (wrongly) attributes everything to China.
  - defrost 2mo ago
    > attributes everything to China aside from: petro-monarchs in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh [...] Ministers in Washington and Tokyo [...] state-led rationing in poorer countries as listed in the first paragraph.
    - tristanj 2mo ago
      Wrong article dude. I'm clearly replying to the video posted in the parent comment, not the submitted article
      - defrost 2mo ago
        Very much my bad, I missed that context - apologies.

kajaktum 2mo ago

There’s also a landed pipeline that is able to carry oil out to the west

IAmBroom 2mo ago
It's all of these. If you maintain any major export path, or decrease demand, prices rise far less than they would otherwise.

petesergeant 2mo ago

Adding in this chart: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/oil-producer-exports-from-gulf-countries-february-2026-june-2026 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/oil-producer-...

edaemon 2mo ago

That doesn't fully explain it, the amount of oil making it through the strait is a small fraction (less than 25%) of the amount that normally flows through there.

deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]
tristanj 2mo ago
Exports from the gulf are only down to 13 million barrels/day from 20 million barrels/day. Gulf exporters are not running at 25% capacity.
- edaemon 2mo ago
  Right, but oil transiting the strait is down below 25% of its normal amount.

nextaccountic 2mo ago

> No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait. This Youtuber did a napkin math to show this effect, plus the land pipeline and other supply increases can't be the sole explanation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0 There was a sharp decrease in demand too, and China did it without domestic oil shortages

tristanj 2mo ago
That author greatly overstates China’s role as the single savior and doesn't address the covert fleet of tankers doing daily blockade runs. He (wrongly) attributes everything to China.
- defrost 2mo ago
  > attributes everything to China aside from: petro-monarchs in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh [...] Ministers in Washington and Tokyo [...] state-led rationing in poorer countries as listed in the first paragraph.
  - tristanj 2mo ago
    Wrong article dude. I'm clearly replying to the video posted in the parent comment, not the submitted article
    - defrost 2mo ago
      Very much my bad, I missed that context - apologies.