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Malcolm Gladwell outlined the Black Swan strategy Taleb used at Empirica in this New Yorker article from way back in 2002: http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04
by klenwell 14y ago
Malcolm Gladwell outlined the Black Swan strategy Taleb used at Empirica in this New Yorker article from way back in 2002:
http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm
Here's the part that resonated with me:
"We cannot blow up, we can only bleed to death," Taleb says, and bleeding to death, absorbing the pain of steady losses, is precisely what human beings are hardwired to avoid. "Say you've got a guy who is long on Russian bonds," Savery says. "He's making money every day. One day, lightning strikes and he loses five times what he made. Still, on three hundred and sixty-four out of three hundred and sixty-five days he was very happily making money. It's much harder to be the other guy, the guy losing money three hundred and sixty-four days out of three hundred and sixty-five, because you start questioning yourself. Am I ever going to make it back? Am I really right? What if it takes ten years? Will I even be sane ten years from now?" What the normal trader gets from his daily winnings is feedback, the pleasing illusion of progress.
[Hmmm. Can't get italics to work on the quotation.]
- aristus 14y agoTen years on Empirica is closed, and its record of returns is interestingly vague, given all the media attention at the onset. Universa Investments L.P. sprung up from the ashes in 2007. Again, the record of return is "secret", except for careful leaks in the press when things happen to pay off. But wait, there's more! They have a brand-new "Black Swan ETF" that hedges the S&P 500 and charges you 0.95% for the privilege. It looks a whole lot like the usual hedge fund bullshit play to me. Make lots of noise for a few years, get the punters to play, close down, then open up under a new name. Lather, rinse, repeat.