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Yes, Google has massive advantages, but I was shocked to realize that their infra advantage is not that massive when we found out they were paying SpaceX about
by keeda 2mo ago
Yes, Google has massive advantages, but I was shocked to realize that their infra advantage is not that massive when we found out they were paying SpaceX about a billion a month for compute, along with enough CapEx spend to turn their free cash flow negative, which inevitably hit their stock price.
Then notice how many of the advantages you enumerated are directly related to their ad business. But the ad business itself is under threat. I just cannot see how they can stuff as many ads in an agentic interface as their SERPs. E.g. what's the net outcome of shoving AI everywhere if it's not going to be monetized nearly as well as their ads?
My point is, Google has finetuned their ad business and surrounding ecosystem to an extreme level to sustain this absolute firehose of cash (including antitrust and rig-bidding shenanigans they were literally found guilty of) but almost all of that is disrupted by the shift to chat interfaces.
I think Google will do extremely well as an AI chatbot / agent and cloud AI provider, but it will not be nearly as lucrative as the ad business they have to cannibalize to get there.