6 ms·

Not sure there is much actual profit in LLMs. It will be interesting to see promise meet reality, indeed.

by suncore 2mo ago

noduerme 2mo ago
I mean, it's obviously that they think they're going way beyond LLMs to get to something that is profitable, like some ultimate goldmine of intelligence. But if they miss that target by a hair or two, can we buy some of that RAM? I'd like my next MacBook not to cost $10,000.
- SecretDreams 2mo ago
  I'm going to be very pumped when this comes crashing down. It's going to look a bit like oligarchs subsidizing consumer tech as they try to offload more ram than God could own.
  - bilegeek 2mo ago
    Everybody from OpenAI to Micron to the US Government is actively colluding to keep things going. I would love for you to be right, but I'm cynical from the decades that have been spent insulating these companies from consequences.
    - SecretDreams 2mo ago
      It really does feel like this. But it can't go indefinitely. What may seem bleak today could look very different a year out. The velocity of this whole thing won't just apply to the upwards direction. But velocity down probably will mean a meaningful recession, so there's that.
    - happyPersonR 2mo ago
      you're right ... but china hahaha
Cthulhu_ 2mo ago
It's once again a market where there's morbillions of money being invested but no money is being made yet. The next few years will show whether AI becomes established in e.g. large enterprises who use it as part of their daily business. But there's a lot of competition and wishes to cut costs as well so profit margins will dwindle. I also think most hardware expenditures done today will lose their value quickly; as we saw with crypto, hardware manufacturers will make specialized hardware so the cost/performance ratio will go down by at least 90% within a few years, possibly more.
SecretDreams 2mo ago
The profit is in the stock price rising, not the actual revenue. They need stories to keep the stocks going up.

Not sure there is much actual profit in LLMs. It will be interesting to see promise meet reality, indeed.

by suncore 2mo ago

Not sure there is much actual profit in LLMs. It will be interesting to see promise meet reality, indeed.

I mean, it's obviously that they think they're going way beyond LLMs to get to something that is profitable, like some ultimate goldmine of intelligence. But if they miss that target by a hair or two, can we buy some of that RAM? I'd like my next MacBook not to cost $10,000.

SecretDreams 2mo ago
I'm going to be very pumped when this comes crashing down. It's going to look a bit like oligarchs subsidizing consumer tech as they try to offload more ram than God could own.
- bilegeek 2mo ago
  Everybody from OpenAI to Micron to the US Government is actively colluding to keep things going. I would love for you to be right, but I'm cynical from the decades that have been spent insulating these companies from consequences.
  - SecretDreams 2mo ago
    It really does feel like this. But it can't go indefinitely. What may seem bleak today could look very different a year out. The velocity of this whole thing won't just apply to the upwards direction. But velocity down probably will mean a meaningful recession, so there's that.
  - happyPersonR 2mo ago
    you're right ... but china hahaha

Cthulhu_ 2mo ago

It's once again a market where there's morbillions of money being invested but no money is being made yet. The next few years will show whether AI becomes established in e.g. large enterprises who use it as part of their daily business. But there's a lot of competition and wishes to cut costs as well so profit margins will dwindle. I also think most hardware expenditures done today will lose their value quickly; as we saw with crypto, hardware manufacturers will make specialized hardware so the cost/performance ratio will go down by at least 90% within a few years, possibly more.

SecretDreams 2mo ago

The profit is in the stock price rising, not the actual revenue. They need stories to keep the stocks going up.