4 ms·
This is exactly the sort of bad incentives that lead to things like deliberately throwing drug trials. Very small amounts of money make people do horrible thing
by idiotsecant 2mo ago
This is exactly the sort of bad incentives that lead to things like deliberately throwing drug trials. Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, by what magic would this be an exception?
- kwikiel 2mo agoUsually the reverse problem is happening - company does pump its stock based on potentially having their drug accepted but it’s usually the case that it will be rejected - but you don’t k ow that for sure for many years - prediction market may help here
- bb88 2mo agoBut through short selling the stock market already allows the ability to bet against a company.
- andai 2mo ago> Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, What is this referring to?
- tencentshill 2mo agoRussia and Iran are known to hire teenagers online to kill targets in Europe for little money.
- zaik 2mo agoI never heard of this. Do we know somebody who was killed this way?
- tencentshill 2mo agohttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czrjyevmv61o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czrjyevmv61o This group has been linked to 35 murders since 2022 https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/02/09/to-build-a-fire https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/02/09/to-build-a-fir...
- andai 2mo agoI don't know about teenagers but my last boss was bragging about how little money it costs to have someone killed. I think he was trying to boost morale.
- glaslong 2mo agoTurns out the Spokane wildfire was arson initiated. While Kalshi and PM have bets going on wildfire predictions. I don't think there's a smoking Molotov there yet, but the incentives sure don't seem great! Doesn't seem a huge leap there. Nor does a pissed off janitor who could turn $100 into $1,000 by trashing the wrong samples. Or a bigger player who can turn their $500k into $5M by paying that janitor $1,000.
- meric_ 2mo agoA janitor doesn't need prediction markets. They could just short the stock (and profit way more that way)
- glaslong 2mo agoThe janitor doesnt need a prediction market, but that's 100% who Kalshi and PM are currently blasting ads at, because the janitors with $100 to kill are the bag holders that pay the insiders. At least in general, not for this specific Evil Janitor, who is the rarer unsophisticated-schemer/patsy/insider in my contrived hypothetical.
- jeffreyames 2mo agoYou’re imagining a 10x payout for sabotaging a trial. That would be a trial with about 90% odds of succeeding when most trials are likely to fail. And this isn’t a high school science experiment a single janitor can easily sabotage. Any drug with high odds for approval has already shown significant evidence of efficacy and safety. Tampering would not shut down the whole development process with hundreds of millions poured into it.
- bb88 2mo agoN=1 here, but I'm sure you can find many many more examples. In a mass shooting in Boise, Idaho, a woman stole items off a fallen security guard that was lying on the floor. https://idahonews.com/news/local/police-idaho-woman-stole-items-from-victim-in-mall-shooting https://idahonews.com/news/local/police-idaho-woman-stole-it...
- jeffreyames 2mo agoA system that’s more robust to meddling than you’re imagining