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I saw on Twitter that TSMC has made 1B worth of chips for Apple that they cannot package because of missing memory. (PS: It is time to let ASML sell to CXMT.)
by chvid 2mo ago
I saw on Twitter that TSMC has made 1B worth of chips for Apple that they cannot package because of missing memory.
(PS: It is time to let ASML sell to CXMT.)
- vdfs 2mo ago> (PS: It is time to let ASML sell to CXMT.) Why? High demand and low supply is very good for shareholders and make indexes go up, their goal is not to meet demand, they want exponential qurartly revunes
- stingraycharles 2mo agoIt’s temporary revenue, it’s not as if those businesses are suddenly fundamentally better. To me it seems like they’re just riding the AI hype out, expecting a crash after, and not willing to risk a lot of capital on someone else’s bubble.
- Foobar8568 2mo agoTemporary revenues for decades to come.
- stingraycharles 2mo agoThat’s very much up for debate.
- chvid 2mo agoTrue - but what is happening now is very destructive to a lot of important companies.
- ethbr1 2mo agoIndeed. There's a reason the US government has historically stopped air traffic / railroad / longshore strikes: cascading effects. If memory is now upstream of so many companies, then maybe a higher regulatory involvement would be appropriate (like power companies). Specifically, and it could fix all of this, capping the max % of their supply they're allowed to sell into the AI space.
- nixon_why69 2mo agoI hear what you're saying but memory ultimately is not infrastructure, it's a commodity that's shipped over infrastructure. The arguments for infrastructure being managed more tightly by the government is because it's a natural monopoly that everything depends on. Memory isn't a natural monopoly, if we found ourselves in a spot where we all depend on 3 companies then that's not a law of nature, we need more companies.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 2mo agoThe government interferes with many commodities. Food, oil, rare-earth elements, sugar, airplane frames, etc
- ethbr1 2mo agoAll of these have the feature that you can produce them more economically-efficiently at scale AND that boom-bust cycles can be catastrophic for producers. Memory absolutely fits both these criteria. As for the net public good weighing, at the end of the day the question would be if it would be more economically efficient to mass produce memory with a managed price structure (i.e. US agrees to buy X amount at $Y regularly). Which turns into whether having an anchor buyer allows the producer to economically create (and continually run) more production capacity than they would otherwise. It feels like for semiconductors, the planet as a whole would benefit from maximizing production to floor cost. Granted, AI infra mania current times is an anomaly, as was internet build-out.
- nixon_why69 2mo agoSet aside the mania, OP said: Food, oil, rare-earth elements, sugar, airplane frames, etc I put "food" and "airplane frames" in the "worth it for state intervention" category personally. Memory is obviously not food, the question is whether it is airplane frames at this point in time. Maybe? I'd give it a solid 55/45 maybe. But we shouldn't sponsor korean/taiwanese companies, so what's the plan for an American memory company?
- preisschild 2mo agoIts not like demand will be lowered by this though, I dont see how this would be bad for ASML (besides PR-China generally not respecting IP and them reverse engineering it)
- inigyou 2mo agoYou still have to actually meet the demand. It's not good if you don't sell any products.
- znpy 2mo agoI just thought… didn’t Intel start as a memory chip company? Couldn’t intel repurpose some of its fabs (maybe the old ones?) to produce memory? I’m no expert but… seems like an easy win?
- HarHarVeryFunny 2mo agoI thought CXMT already have plenty of capacity - Apple are currently talking to the US government for blessing to buy from them. Other manufactures like Micron do have aggressive expansion plans, but fabs take a long time to build and bring online - multiple years.
- dist-epoch 2mo agoCXMT is sold out too. https://www.guru3d.com/story/cxmt-dram-capacity-reportedly-sold-out-through-2027-as-major-oems-fight-for-supply/ https://www.guru3d.com/story/cxmt-dram-capacity-reportedly-s...
- LargoLasskhyfv 2mo agoThere is TWSC: https://en.twsc.com.cn/ https://en.twsc.com.cn/ Traded as CUSU for end-users: https://en.twsc.com.cn/enCUSU/index.html https://en.twsc.com.cn/enCUSU/index.html
- LargoLasskhyfv 2mo agoBtw. if anybody had hopes for Nanya? Nope! https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nanya-technology-shares-surge-10-after-25-billion-private-placement-2026-03-26/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nanya-technology-... https://www.blocksandfiles.com/flash/2026/03/27/three-ssd-makers-buy-into-nanya-to-secure-dram-supply/5211628 https://www.blocksandfiles.com/flash/2026/03/27/three-ssd-ma... https://thenextweb.com/news/nanya-6-billion-2027-ai-memory https://thenextweb.com/news/nanya-6-billion-2027-ai-memory
- tooltalk 2mo agoDon't really need the EUVs for commodity DRAMs and China has plenty of DUVs capable of 10nm. CXMT's DDR5 is known to use 1z nodes (17nm) vs 1c (10nm) used by the big three -- ie, higher cost, less efficiency, less density. The big three are also expanding their capacity. IMO, it seems to make more sense to sell equipments to those who could make better, efficient use of them. ASML has a backlog of €38.8 billion and is fully booked for 2027.