4 ms·

>If Taiwan toasts TSMC when that happens ... You can bet that all TSMC chip factories in Taiwan have strategic installs of explosives just for this scenario, C

>If Taiwan toasts TSMC when that happens ... You can bet that all TSMC chip factories in Taiwan have strategic installs of explosives just for this scenario, China will get nothing, and the US has multiple TSMC chip factories now and will gladly accept Taiwan victims.

toomuchtodo 2mo ago
As mentioned, they won’t need the fabs. They’re spending tens of billions of dollars to advance their own vertical chip industry. The US just pulled temporary status from hundreds of thousands of Hatians, so I wouldn’t be so confident what the future looks like for Taiwanese refugees in the US. TLDR China is going to build whatever chip technology they need to accomplish their technology and geopolitical goals. They have the resources, the will, and the time. China’s EUV Lithography Progress: Parsing Signal From Noise - https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/chinas-euv-lithography-progress-parsing-signal-from-noise/ https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/chinas-euv-lithography-progr... - July 2nd, 2026 China begins mass production of homegrown DUV chipmaking tools - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49076684 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49076684 - July 2026 China Tells Telecom Carriers to Phase Out Foreign Chips by 2027 (2024) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48767466 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48767466 - July 2026 US tells ASML it is concerned China may have top chip tool - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48602369 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48602369 - June 2026
- fragmede 2mo ago
  The US has a long history of importing scientists, dating back to Vernon von Braun during WWII. It's sad, it's because Hatians aren't TSMC engineers.
  - toomuchtodo 2mo ago
    The US also has a recent history of making it so hostile that they’re exporting scientists to China, Europe, and Singapore (not exhaustive). Hard to predict the future of who will be welcomed, if they’ll be welcomed, for how long, and if they even want to come to the US. There are many better places to go after all. Physics PhDs Are Leaving the US at a Record-high Rate - https://www.aip.org/fyi/physics-phds-are-leaving-the-us-at-a-record-high-rate https://www.aip.org/fyi/physics-phds-are-leaving-the-us-at-a... - August 4th, 2026 Top researchers leave USA for the Netherlands - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48816003 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48816003 - July 2026 (260 comments) Pushed by Trump policies, top U.S. battery scientist is moving to Singapore - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47985353 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47985353 - May 2026 (37 comments) Europe to burned American scientists: We’ll take you in - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47906102 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47906102 - May 2026 (12 comments)
maxglute 2mo ago
Bad bet, wanking about TW blowing up their golden goose fabs is US hopium/threat - literally US Army War College insinuated US would blow up fabs to deny PRC while TW politicians/defense minister retorted under no circumstances was that acceptable nor would they evacuate semi talent to US before women and children. Not that they could under PRC blockade/quarantine. The entire notion is fundamentally stupid, TW with fabs is at least useful to PRC and sustains wealth after, or they'd be subsistence pineapple farmers. US has 0 TSMC factories that would operate for long with TW semi sole supplier, Arizonal would grind to halt until US reshores every piece of semi supply chain which even CHIPS ACT didn't pretend US was capable of. Only PRC pursuing end to end full vertical semi integration. TW goes byebye in next few years, PRC will likely be capable of making wholey indigenize 7+nm while entire western semi is fucked because they lost TW inputs. Now consider PRC land based munitions can make anything on TW go byebye in 7 minutes, reality is PRC has maximum semi leverage during war while US has semi leverage during peacetime (lawfare/export controls etc).

toomuchtodo 2mo ago

As mentioned, they won’t need the fabs. They’re spending tens of billions of dollars to advance their own vertical chip industry. The US just pulled temporary status from hundreds of thousands of Hatians, so I wouldn’t be so confident what the future looks like for Taiwanese refugees in the US. TLDR China is going to build whatever chip technology they need to accomplish their technology and geopolitical goals. They have the resources, the will, and the time. China’s EUV Lithography Progress: Parsing Signal From Noise - https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/chinas-euv-lithography-progress-parsing-signal-from-noise/ https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/chinas-euv-lithography-progr... - July 2nd, 2026 China begins mass production of homegrown DUV chipmaking tools - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49076684 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49076684 - July 2026 China Tells Telecom Carriers to Phase Out Foreign Chips by 2027 (2024) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48767466 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48767466 - July 2026 US tells ASML it is concerned China may have top chip tool - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48602369 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48602369 - June 2026

fragmede 2mo ago
The US has a long history of importing scientists, dating back to Vernon von Braun during WWII. It's sad, it's because Hatians aren't TSMC engineers.
- toomuchtodo 2mo ago
  The US also has a recent history of making it so hostile that they’re exporting scientists to China, Europe, and Singapore (not exhaustive). Hard to predict the future of who will be welcomed, if they’ll be welcomed, for how long, and if they even want to come to the US. There are many better places to go after all. Physics PhDs Are Leaving the US at a Record-high Rate - https://www.aip.org/fyi/physics-phds-are-leaving-the-us-at-a-record-high-rate https://www.aip.org/fyi/physics-phds-are-leaving-the-us-at-a... - August 4th, 2026 Top researchers leave USA for the Netherlands - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48816003 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48816003 - July 2026 (260 comments) Pushed by Trump policies, top U.S. battery scientist is moving to Singapore - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47985353 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47985353 - May 2026 (37 comments) Europe to burned American scientists: We’ll take you in - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47906102 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47906102 - May 2026 (12 comments)

maxglute 2mo ago

Bad bet, wanking about TW blowing up their golden goose fabs is US hopium/threat - literally US Army War College insinuated US would blow up fabs to deny PRC while TW politicians/defense minister retorted under no circumstances was that acceptable nor would they evacuate semi talent to US before women and children. Not that they could under PRC blockade/quarantine. The entire notion is fundamentally stupid, TW with fabs is at least useful to PRC and sustains wealth after, or they'd be subsistence pineapple farmers. US has 0 TSMC factories that would operate for long with TW semi sole supplier, Arizonal would grind to halt until US reshores every piece of semi supply chain which even CHIPS ACT didn't pretend US was capable of. Only PRC pursuing end to end full vertical semi integration. TW goes byebye in next few years, PRC will likely be capable of making wholey indigenize 7+nm while entire western semi is fucked because they lost TW inputs. Now consider PRC land based munitions can make anything on TW go byebye in 7 minutes, reality is PRC has maximum semi leverage during war while US has semi leverage during peacetime (lawfare/export controls etc).