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I wouldn't call what they're doing "staying on the sidelines". It's a very big thing they're doing to stop global oil prices from shooting up by using up their

I wouldn't call what they're doing "staying on the sidelines". It's a very big thing they're doing to stop global oil prices from shooting up by using up their stockpile for as long as they can. As to why, it's just the... I dunno, Chinese? thing to do. Quietly fix someone else's fuckup and not seek glory. Whatever you want to attribute it to, it's an ethos and makes total sense to some, because things are gonna get fuuuuuucked if gas prices go to the moon.

toomuchtodo 3mo ago
China’s economy depends on exporting to the world, as it will never have enough domestic demand to meet domestic supply. If the global economy crashes from an oil price shock, China goes down with it.
- fragmede 3mo ago
  Power is better than money though. China is communist in name only now, but they could extract huge concessions out of the rest of the world right now if they wanted to.
  - toomuchtodo 3mo ago
    They could, but they’ll wait, they’re not ready yet. Until then, they’ll continue to electrify their economy, build out domestic energy supply, rebuild their oil inventories from Russia and Iran when able (at below market prices, dominated in yuan, avoiding dollar systems and sanctions) and prepare to take Taiwan as the US continues to weaken itself. If Taiwan toasts TSMC when that happens, well, that’s part of what China is rapidly building out their domestic chip industry. China will then have a monopoly on that chip production besides what can be produced in the US and Europe, and have achieved reunification. And who is going to stop them? Nobody, based on the evidence and current trajectories.
    - DivingForGold 3mo ago
      >If Taiwan toasts TSMC when that happens ... You can bet that all TSMC chip factories in Taiwan have strategic installs of explosives just for this scenario, China will get nothing, and the US has multiple TSMC chip factories now and will gladly accept Taiwan victims.
      - toomuchtodo 3mo ago
        As mentioned, they won’t need the fabs. They’re spending tens of billions of dollars to advance their own vertical chip industry. The US just pulled temporary status from hundreds of thousands of Hatians, so I wouldn’t be so confident what the future looks like for Taiwanese refugees in the US. TLDR China is going to build whatever chip technology they need to accomplish their technology and geopolitical goals. They have the resources, the will, and the time. China’s EUV Lithography Progress: Parsing Signal From Noise - https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/chinas-euv-lithography-progress-parsing-signal-from-noise/ https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/chinas-euv-lithography-progr... - July 2nd, 2026 China begins mass production of homegrown DUV chipmaking tools - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49076684 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49076684 - July 2026 China Tells Telecom Carriers to Phase Out Foreign Chips by 2027 (2024) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48767466 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48767466 - July 2026 US tells ASML it is concerned China may have top chip tool - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48602369 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48602369 - June 2026
        fragmede 3mo ago
        The US has a long history of importing scientists, dating back to Vernon von Braun during WWII. It's sad, it's because Hatians aren't TSMC engineers.
        toomuchtodo 3mo ago
        The US also has a recent history of making it so hostile that they’re exporting scientists to China, Europe, and Singapore (not exhaustive). Hard to predict the future of who will be welcomed, if they’ll be welcomed, for how long, and if they even want to come to the US. There are many better places to go after all. Physics PhDs Are Leaving the US at a Record-high Rate - https://www.aip.org/fyi/physics-phds-are-leaving-the-us-at-a-record-high-rate https://www.aip.org/fyi/physics-phds-are-leaving-the-us-at-a... - August 4th, 2026 Top researchers leave USA for the Netherlands - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48816003 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48816003 - July 2026 (260 comments) Pushed by Trump policies, top U.S. battery scientist is moving to Singapore - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47985353 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47985353 - May 2026 (37 comments) Europe to burned American scientists: We’ll take you in - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47906102 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47906102 - May 2026 (12 comments)
aprilthird2021 3mo ago
It is to their benefit in several ways: They can use this ability to keep oil prices down to sort of back up their strategic goals. They could block a strait themselves while taking Taiwan. They could open the stores for concessions in other ways. They can also use this current Iran War to study how the US handles economic problems like oil-inflation. By having their finger on the scale they can push and pull and see how the US reacts in a war scenario.
acdha 3mo ago
China isn’t trying to crash the global economy but they’re letting prices rise to the point that their EV, solar, and battery companies are seeing huge demand. They don’t want a depression, just acceleration of that trend.

toomuchtodo 3mo ago

China’s economy depends on exporting to the world, as it will never have enough domestic demand to meet domestic supply. If the global economy crashes from an oil price shock, China goes down with it.

fragmede 3mo ago
Power is better than money though. China is communist in name only now, but they could extract huge concessions out of the rest of the world right now if they wanted to.
- toomuchtodo 3mo ago
  They could, but they’ll wait, they’re not ready yet. Until then, they’ll continue to electrify their economy, build out domestic energy supply, rebuild their oil inventories from Russia and Iran when able (at below market prices, dominated in yuan, avoiding dollar systems and sanctions) and prepare to take Taiwan as the US continues to weaken itself. If Taiwan toasts TSMC when that happens, well, that’s part of what China is rapidly building out their domestic chip industry. China will then have a monopoly on that chip production besides what can be produced in the US and Europe, and have achieved reunification. And who is going to stop them? Nobody, based on the evidence and current trajectories.
  - DivingForGold 3mo ago
    >If Taiwan toasts TSMC when that happens ... You can bet that all TSMC chip factories in Taiwan have strategic installs of explosives just for this scenario, China will get nothing, and the US has multiple TSMC chip factories now and will gladly accept Taiwan victims.
    - toomuchtodo 3mo ago
      As mentioned, they won’t need the fabs. They’re spending tens of billions of dollars to advance their own vertical chip industry. The US just pulled temporary status from hundreds of thousands of Hatians, so I wouldn’t be so confident what the future looks like for Taiwanese refugees in the US. TLDR China is going to build whatever chip technology they need to accomplish their technology and geopolitical goals. They have the resources, the will, and the time. China’s EUV Lithography Progress: Parsing Signal From Noise - https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/chinas-euv-lithography-progress-parsing-signal-from-noise/ https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/chinas-euv-lithography-progr... - July 2nd, 2026 China begins mass production of homegrown DUV chipmaking tools - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49076684 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49076684 - July 2026 China Tells Telecom Carriers to Phase Out Foreign Chips by 2027 (2024) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48767466 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48767466 - July 2026 US tells ASML it is concerned China may have top chip tool - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48602369 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48602369 - June 2026
      - fragmede 3mo ago
        The US has a long history of importing scientists, dating back to Vernon von Braun during WWII. It's sad, it's because Hatians aren't TSMC engineers.
        toomuchtodo 3mo ago
        The US also has a recent history of making it so hostile that they’re exporting scientists to China, Europe, and Singapore (not exhaustive). Hard to predict the future of who will be welcomed, if they’ll be welcomed, for how long, and if they even want to come to the US. There are many better places to go after all. Physics PhDs Are Leaving the US at a Record-high Rate - https://www.aip.org/fyi/physics-phds-are-leaving-the-us-at-a-record-high-rate https://www.aip.org/fyi/physics-phds-are-leaving-the-us-at-a... - August 4th, 2026 Top researchers leave USA for the Netherlands - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48816003 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48816003 - July 2026 (260 comments) Pushed by Trump policies, top U.S. battery scientist is moving to Singapore - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47985353 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47985353 - May 2026 (37 comments) Europe to burned American scientists: We’ll take you in - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47906102 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47906102 - May 2026 (12 comments)

aprilthird2021 3mo ago

It is to their benefit in several ways: They can use this ability to keep oil prices down to sort of back up their strategic goals. They could block a strait themselves while taking Taiwan. They could open the stores for concessions in other ways. They can also use this current Iran War to study how the US handles economic problems like oil-inflation. By having their finger on the scale they can push and pull and see how the US reacts in a war scenario.

acdha 3mo ago

China isn’t trying to crash the global economy but they’re letting prices rise to the point that their EV, solar, and battery companies are seeing huge demand. They don’t want a depression, just acceleration of that trend.