6 ms·

Google's capex is to capture the compute purchases from the other labs. The amount they are spending on Gemini is probably shockingly low...and hence researche

Google's capex is to capture the compute purchases from the other labs. The amount they are spending on Gemini is probably shockingly low...and hence researchers leaving for better watered pastures.

dnnehgf 3mo ago
this is roughly how i've been reading their approach, but i wonder when/if this changes. what actually makes them start caring about having the most capable model? maybe nothing. i suppose they could be happy in a world where they (a) are still the agents' preferred search index and (b) own or produce a good percentage of the hardware that anthropic and openai run on.
- weatherlite 3mo ago
  > i suppose they could be happy in a world where they (a) are still the agents' preferred search index and (b) own or produce a good percentage of the hardware that anthropic and openai run on. If the goal is to maximize share price (which it is) this is probably the safest approach. Why do they have to keep chasing developing the best model when they can a) charge everyone for the cloud infra b) have a "good enough" experience for normal consumers Their current setup will be worth trillions. Already is. Let anthropic get paid for the most expensive queries while they get a bill from Google for their cloud/TPU use. GCP grew 82% YOY with 24B revenue and improving margins. So GCP became a 100B business. Anyone doubts it's gonna double in less than 5 years? Gemini just needs to be good enough for normal folks who want personal agents for everyday use. I don't think Google has to compete with Anthropic on making the best agentic programming model.
mikert89 3mo ago
I’ve heard the pay at deep mind is low and people are complaining about it
- bmitc 3mo ago
  How low are we talking?
  - mikert89 3mo ago
    Nowhere near what other ai labs are paying. Most deep mind employees make what typical Google employees make
    - bmitc 3mo ago
      So, how low?
      - mikert89 3mo ago
        they are paying them like rank and file google employees, aside from a few star researchers
        HarHarVeryFunny 3mo ago
        Of course it does matter what other companies are paying, but I wonder how many DeepMind employees actually deserve to be paid more than any other "rank and file" Google employee? What unique skill do they have (esp. relative to what Google are now doing), and what value are they creating? I don't get the impression that the difference between one company succeeding to build SOTA LLMs, and another struggling, comes down to individual employees - it seems to be more about the organization itself and their ability to manage teams and projects of this type. No doubt there are a few rockstars generating huge value, such as Noam Shazeer had been, but they are the exceptions. When DeepMind was first created, before Google acquired it, they were famous for the high salaries, especially for the UK, but this was an assemblage of the brightest and best PhDs, expected to be solving challenging research problems along the unknown path to AGI. Many of these original employees may still be there, but it seems their job and value proposition has changed - are they any more capable, or key to, helping Gemini catch up with the competition than some "rank and file" employee familiar with LLMs? And if so, why haven't they done it?
michaelt 3mo ago
> The amount they are spending on Gemini is probably shockingly low IDK, haven't Google been putting Gemini front and centre in pretty much all of their products? I'm seeing Gemini on my slide decks, Gemini on my e-mails, Gemini on my searches, Gemini on my videoconferences, Gemini on my database query console. My impression was they were doing a Google Plus style attempt to marshal all the company's efforts behind one product.
- WarmWash 3mo ago
  Their capex is primarily in building DCs (and what goes into them), which they fully intend to monetize in order to capture that $500B backlog. In that context, the amount of new capacity that will be given to Deepmind could be surprisingly small, since the ROI of selling pickaxes rather than mining gold is so much better right now.

Google's capex is to capture the compute purchases from the other labs. The amount they are spending on Gemini is probably shockingly low...and hence researchers leaving for better watered pastures.

dnnehgf 3mo ago

this is roughly how i've been reading their approach, but i wonder when/if this changes. what actually makes them start caring about having the most capable model? maybe nothing. i suppose they could be happy in a world where they (a) are still the agents' preferred search index and (b) own or produce a good percentage of the hardware that anthropic and openai run on.

weatherlite 3mo ago
> i suppose they could be happy in a world where they (a) are still the agents' preferred search index and (b) own or produce a good percentage of the hardware that anthropic and openai run on. If the goal is to maximize share price (which it is) this is probably the safest approach. Why do they have to keep chasing developing the best model when they can a) charge everyone for the cloud infra b) have a "good enough" experience for normal consumers Their current setup will be worth trillions. Already is. Let anthropic get paid for the most expensive queries while they get a bill from Google for their cloud/TPU use. GCP grew 82% YOY with 24B revenue and improving margins. So GCP became a 100B business. Anyone doubts it's gonna double in less than 5 years? Gemini just needs to be good enough for normal folks who want personal agents for everyday use. I don't think Google has to compete with Anthropic on making the best agentic programming model.

mikert89 3mo ago

I’ve heard the pay at deep mind is low and people are complaining about it

bmitc 3mo ago
How low are we talking?
- mikert89 3mo ago
  Nowhere near what other ai labs are paying. Most deep mind employees make what typical Google employees make
  - bmitc 3mo ago
    So, how low?
    - mikert89 3mo ago
      they are paying them like rank and file google employees, aside from a few star researchers
      - HarHarVeryFunny 3mo ago
        Of course it does matter what other companies are paying, but I wonder how many DeepMind employees actually deserve to be paid more than any other "rank and file" Google employee? What unique skill do they have (esp. relative to what Google are now doing), and what value are they creating? I don't get the impression that the difference between one company succeeding to build SOTA LLMs, and another struggling, comes down to individual employees - it seems to be more about the organization itself and their ability to manage teams and projects of this type. No doubt there are a few rockstars generating huge value, such as Noam Shazeer had been, but they are the exceptions. When DeepMind was first created, before Google acquired it, they were famous for the high salaries, especially for the UK, but this was an assemblage of the brightest and best PhDs, expected to be solving challenging research problems along the unknown path to AGI. Many of these original employees may still be there, but it seems their job and value proposition has changed - are they any more capable, or key to, helping Gemini catch up with the competition than some "rank and file" employee familiar with LLMs? And if so, why haven't they done it?

michaelt 3mo ago

> The amount they are spending on Gemini is probably shockingly low IDK, haven't Google been putting Gemini front and centre in pretty much all of their products? I'm seeing Gemini on my slide decks, Gemini on my e-mails, Gemini on my searches, Gemini on my videoconferences, Gemini on my database query console. My impression was they were doing a Google Plus style attempt to marshal all the company's efforts behind one product.

WarmWash 3mo ago
Their capex is primarily in building DCs (and what goes into them), which they fully intend to monetize in order to capture that $500B backlog. In that context, the amount of new capacity that will be given to Deepmind could be surprisingly small, since the ROI of selling pickaxes rather than mining gold is so much better right now.