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I disagree - I will be surprised if google doesnt win the AI race long term. They have the money, the chips, and the ability to attract talent.
by misiti3780 2mo ago
I disagree - I will be surprised if google doesnt win the AI race long term. They have the money, the chips, and the ability to attract talent.
- gboss 2mo agoEver heard of the innovator’s dilemma? Don’t underestimate the inertia of large companies and their unwillingness to pivot from their cash cow.
- jerlam 2mo agoGoogle specifically has a track record. You could have made the same argument about social media (Google+) a decade ago.
- krapht 2mo agosocial media is a completely different market though - since there are massive returns to scale, it's incredibly hard for a new entrant to break in. model training and inference is the opposite. people switch LLMs like people change clothes in the morning. there are popular services (openrouter) that make moving as easy as changing a model string.
- rowyourboat 2mo agoWhich poses the question: Why does Google even need to catch up? At least currently, the name of the game is integration. The actual model is a commodity.
- andsoitis 2mo agoIf the new cow doesn’t have cash, it is better to stick to the cow you know.
- keeda 2mo agoUnfortunately the new cow is cannibalizing the old cow, so Google is in a bit of a bind here. (So far I cannot imagine them monetizing AI overviews enough to compensate for the sharp loss of ads on SERPs.) To its credit Google seems willing to disrupt itself before its competitors can.
- andsoitis 2mo agoOne option would be to become vegetarian.
- jodrellblank 2mo agoYou don't eat the cash cow, you milk the cash cow.
- baq 2mo agoDemis will get an offer he can’t refuse - they’ll make him the CEO of Alphabet and have the whole company go all in - the question is when.
- xnx 2mo agoHow is the company not "all in" now? Google is going to spend $200B on AI buildout this year.
- temp_praneshp 2mo agoDoesn't mean much for DeepMind if that's spent on Google Cloud, to rent out for Anthropic et al.
- reducesuffering 2mo ago> ability to attract talent. No, the top talent is clearly at Anthropic and OpenAI
- hypnodrones 2mo agoAgree that I would (and do) still place my bet on them for the long term. Maybe the outcome will be a couple of good startups seeded and DeepMind _really_ focusing on LLMs now.
- DANmode 2mo agoThey’d be hard pressed to lose, if it’s what they want. They need to route all browser search strings to an LLM, and slowly begin to charge where people will pay. Likely ad space.
- nemomarx 2mo agoAre they measurably attracting more talent here? It seems like they're losing some of it right now, so is there public info about numbers of researchers they have or etc
- rdtsc 2mo agoI said that too at the start of the year, but that's a looong time in "AI years". I feel like by now they should have announced a Fable-killer model. They may still do it but looking back I am becoming less convinced now than I was 6 months ago.
- logicchains 2mo agoThey also have the money, the hardware and the talent to be the best cloud infrastructure provider, yet they're still far behind AWS (for good reason, as anyone who's dealt with their customer service will understand).