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> The idea that that a huge number of people will give up their private cars for robot-taxis in the next 20 years is laughable. They don't even exist in the vas
by testing22321 2mo ago
> The idea that that a huge number of people will give up their private cars for robot-taxis in the next 20 years is laughable. They don't even exist in the vast majority of the country, and it's not even clear that they can function everywhere with our current technology. In just the past year we've seen how the technology we have today is still struggling with how to properly deal with basic things like red traffic lights and school buses
(2007)
The idea that smartphones will replace landlines in the next 20 years is laughable. The CEO of the biggest competitor even wrote it off as too expensive.
Same identical story with reusable rockets, right down to the competition saying it will never happen.
Same identical story with other industries and products.
My point is, When it happens, it will happen fast. Also cars are even more likely to do this because you have to Keep in mind that outside enthusiasts, nobody wants the expense and hassle of private car ownership.
They want the convenience of personal transport, but they’re stupidly expensive.
The first company that gives the mass market what they want at scale will be massive.
- dumberquestions 2mo agoRobot-taxis don't offer the same convenience and status gain of a private car, while a smartphone does every single thing a landline can and more, this is not a good analogy.
- testing22321 2mo agoAbsolutely you’re right. The question is how much less convenience will people accept for how much of a saving compared to depreciation, insurance, gas, maintenance, tires, parking repairs and all the rest. If it’s slightly less convenient and a decent saving, I’m quite sure the vast majority of car owners won’t want to own anymore. For most, car ownership is a massive burden.
- autoexec 2mo agoRobotaxis will have to pass the costs of depreciation, insurance, gas, maintenance, tires, parking repairs and all the rest onto the consumer anyway, and then also charge consumers even more because they want to stuff their pockets with cash and not just break even. If it takes $8.00 in gas to get you where you want to go, you'd better believe you're going to be paying $8.00 no matter who is driving.
- testing22321 2mo agoAt this point we can speculate till the cows come home about how much it’s going to cost and how convenient it will be. I’ll wait and see.