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The problem is the numbers and the timeframe. I avoid making predictions on tech: - AI may speed up on improvements and be a singularity moment, truly a new i
by surgical_fire 2mo ago
The problem is the numbers and the timeframe.
I avoid making predictions on tech:
- AI may speed up on improvements and be a singularity moment, truly a new industrial revolution.
- AI may have only incremental improvements in the next few decades with diminishing returns.
- AI improvements may plateau and fizzle out.
All those are possible scenarios, and if you dig you may find evidence and historical precedence for all of those. I don't think making wild bets that can tank the whole economy based on a FOMO-fueled prediction that everything will work out in a best-case scenario is healthy.
- tim333 2mo agoI see your point but there's been a Moore's law like trend in compute/dollar that's progressed steadily for about a century and has a very high probability of continuing. How that maps into AI products is a bit uncertain but there's definitely a trend in that direction. As an example of the predictability, Hand Moravec wrote quite a well argued paper in 1989 predicting human level hardware capabilities would be available in inexpensive machines around the mid 2020s which I think was fairly spot on. He also argued once those capabilities were there, software guys would figure things to use if for.