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> Because a single autonomous vehicle operating in a shared fleet can replace multiple privately owned cars, the widespread adoption of this technology can’t h

> Because a single autonomous vehicle operating in a shared fleet can replace multiple privately owned cars, the widespread adoption of this technology can’t help but reduce new-car sales volumes. The idea that that a huge number of people will give up their private cars for robot-taxis in the next 20 years is laughable. They don't even exist in the vast majority of the country, and it's not even clear that they can function everywhere with our current technology. In just the past year we've seen how the technology we have today is still struggling with how to properly deal with basic things like red traffic lights and school buses. They haven't even come close to replacing the private cars in the few areas where they do operate. Most people like to be able to go wherever they want whenever they want without begging someone else to come and get them then waiting around for the ride to show up. They like to keep stuff in their cars. They like not having to worry about availability or surge pricing/price gouging or that a lost phone or dead battery or broken app will leave them stranded. If anything will keep Americans from buying new cars it will be because they can't afford them. You can bet it won't be the sudden popularity of "Vertical Takeoff and Landing aircraft"! One reason I'm starting to see turn people away from new cars are the anti-features. My next new car will already be an old car because I don't want a camera recording my face the entire time I drive, or microphones recording my conversations, or basic controls buried in touchscreen menus, or features that cause my car to brake unexpectedly or jerk the wheel suddenly from under my hands, or make me pay a monthly subscription fee for anything. I don't want a car that gets software updates over the air. I don't want it internet connected at all. I want my car to work for me and do what I tell it to do.

bryanlarsen 2mo ago
The article isn't talking about total number of cars in America, which likely won't go down substantially. It's taking about new car sales. If people start using robotaxis more, the car in their driveway gets used less and replaced less often. Old people own as many cars as young people, but drive less so replace less frequently.
testing22321 2mo ago
> The idea that that a huge number of people will give up their private cars for robot-taxis in the next 20 years is laughable. They don't even exist in the vast majority of the country, and it's not even clear that they can function everywhere with our current technology. In just the past year we've seen how the technology we have today is still struggling with how to properly deal with basic things like red traffic lights and school buses (2007) The idea that smartphones will replace landlines in the next 20 years is laughable. The CEO of the biggest competitor even wrote it off as too expensive. Same identical story with reusable rockets, right down to the competition saying it will never happen. Same identical story with other industries and products. My point is, When it happens, it will happen fast. Also cars are even more likely to do this because you have to Keep in mind that outside enthusiasts, nobody wants the expense and hassle of private car ownership. They want the convenience of personal transport, but they’re stupidly expensive. The first company that gives the mass market what they want at scale will be massive.
- dumberquestions 2mo ago
  Robot-taxis don't offer the same convenience and status gain of a private car, while a smartphone does every single thing a landline can and more, this is not a good analogy.
  - testing22321 2mo ago
    Absolutely you’re right. The question is how much less convenience will people accept for how much of a saving compared to depreciation, insurance, gas, maintenance, tires, parking repairs and all the rest. If it’s slightly less convenient and a decent saving, I’m quite sure the vast majority of car owners won’t want to own anymore. For most, car ownership is a massive burden.
    - autoexec 2mo ago
      Robotaxis will have to pass the costs of depreciation, insurance, gas, maintenance, tires, parking repairs and all the rest onto the consumer anyway, and then also charge consumers even more because they want to stuff their pockets with cash and not just break even. If it takes $8.00 in gas to get you where you want to go, you'd better believe you're going to be paying $8.00 no matter who is driving.

bryanlarsen 2mo ago

The article isn't talking about total number of cars in America, which likely won't go down substantially. It's taking about new car sales. If people start using robotaxis more, the car in their driveway gets used less and replaced less often. Old people own as many cars as young people, but drive less so replace less frequently.

testing22321 2mo ago

> The idea that that a huge number of people will give up their private cars for robot-taxis in the next 20 years is laughable. They don't even exist in the vast majority of the country, and it's not even clear that they can function everywhere with our current technology. In just the past year we've seen how the technology we have today is still struggling with how to properly deal with basic things like red traffic lights and school buses (2007) The idea that smartphones will replace landlines in the next 20 years is laughable. The CEO of the biggest competitor even wrote it off as too expensive. Same identical story with reusable rockets, right down to the competition saying it will never happen. Same identical story with other industries and products. My point is, When it happens, it will happen fast. Also cars are even more likely to do this because you have to Keep in mind that outside enthusiasts, nobody wants the expense and hassle of private car ownership. They want the convenience of personal transport, but they’re stupidly expensive. The first company that gives the mass market what they want at scale will be massive.

dumberquestions 2mo ago
Robot-taxis don't offer the same convenience and status gain of a private car, while a smartphone does every single thing a landline can and more, this is not a good analogy.
- testing22321 2mo ago
  Absolutely you’re right. The question is how much less convenience will people accept for how much of a saving compared to depreciation, insurance, gas, maintenance, tires, parking repairs and all the rest. If it’s slightly less convenient and a decent saving, I’m quite sure the vast majority of car owners won’t want to own anymore. For most, car ownership is a massive burden.
  - autoexec 2mo ago
    Robotaxis will have to pass the costs of depreciation, insurance, gas, maintenance, tires, parking repairs and all the rest onto the consumer anyway, and then also charge consumers even more because they want to stuff their pockets with cash and not just break even. If it takes $8.00 in gas to get you where you want to go, you'd better believe you're going to be paying $8.00 no matter who is driving.