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Great article as well, but I'd even be happy with an initial 5% rate out of the gate given ~90% of startups fail. AI build out is a risk. Is anyone serious say
by LogicFailsMe 2mo ago
Great article as well, but I'd even be happy with an initial 5% rate out of the gate given ~90% of startups fail.
AI build out is a risk. Is anyone serious saying it isn't? It might blow up, certainly some egregiously overpriced endeavors will revert to mean, but risk taking is what businesses and investors do for a living. But for giggles, I threw Nvidia's latest 10Q into Sol 5.6 to analyze it as Patrick Boyle suggested that was the only way to understand the games they're playing. And its summary:
"financial distress risk is very low; earnings-volatility risk is moderate to high. NVIDIA’s debt is trivial relative to earnings and liquidity. The main downside scenario is not creditors forcing distress—it is an AI-demand slowdown or regulatory shock colliding with enormous supply commitments, concentrated customers, and investment exposure. Even then, its margins, cash generation, net-cash position, and discretionary buybacks provide a substantial cushion."
So broadly nothing I didn't more or less know already.