4 ms·

We don't measure aggregate risk by discarding a part of the population, even if it's the poorer-performing part. Even today, you cannot fully avoid this risk:

We don't measure aggregate risk by discarding a part of the population, even if it's the poorer-performing part. Even today, you cannot fully avoid this risk: when you get into a vehicle driven by a stranger, you don't know a priori whether the driver is excellent or average. Ideally customer feedback weeds out poor drivers and reduces accident rates, but I'm not privy to data that would prove or disprove whether that actually happens - especially because new drivers join the pool every day.

kube-system 3mo ago
We absolutely can and do mitigate these risks when getting into vehicles driven by strangers: professional drivers typically have higher standards for driving history, and people can physically observe whether a friend/etc is drunk/distracted/etc. But besides that, the people who are in the socioeconomic demographic to buy an expensive self driving car overlap with the demographic that have lower driving risk. For them, the self-driving car is more dangerous than driving themselves.
- deleted 3mo ago
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- otterley 3mo ago
  That suggests the comparative bar should be "professional driver," which is perhaps somewhat higher than "average driver" (1.5x? 2x?) but not 10x higher.
  - kube-system 3mo ago
    That sounds reasonable for a practical general regulatory standard. For a personal standard, it is reasonable that an individual purchaser may use their own risk profile as that standard... as many of the risks involved are not random but can be controlled through choice or are inherently personal. For example, about half of all traffic deaths are due to drowsy or drunk driving. Accident risk for any given driver is highly distributed. For someone making a marginal choice to purchase a car, the choice they are faced with is choosing between the safety profile of a self-driving car and their own personal risk profile.

kube-system 3mo ago

We absolutely can and do mitigate these risks when getting into vehicles driven by strangers: professional drivers typically have higher standards for driving history, and people can physically observe whether a friend/etc is drunk/distracted/etc. But besides that, the people who are in the socioeconomic demographic to buy an expensive self driving car overlap with the demographic that have lower driving risk. For them, the self-driving car is more dangerous than driving themselves.

deleted 3mo ago
[deleted]
otterley 3mo ago
That suggests the comparative bar should be "professional driver," which is perhaps somewhat higher than "average driver" (1.5x? 2x?) but not 10x higher.
- kube-system 3mo ago
  That sounds reasonable for a practical general regulatory standard. For a personal standard, it is reasonable that an individual purchaser may use their own risk profile as that standard... as many of the risks involved are not random but can be controlled through choice or are inherently personal. For example, about half of all traffic deaths are due to drowsy or drunk driving. Accident risk for any given driver is highly distributed. For someone making a marginal choice to purchase a car, the choice they are faced with is choosing between the safety profile of a self-driving car and their own personal risk profile.