38 ms·

Coincidentally it’s also the biggest scam in the west. Wait till the IPO and the inevitable 80% stock drop of OpenAI ….

spiderfarmer 3mo ago
If someone who is as unpopular as Elon the cringelord Musk can convince the markets that Tesla is worth its current stock price, I doubt the AI bubble will burst.
- asdfman123 3mo ago
  He can keep the scam going for a long time but not forever.
  - usernametaken29 3mo ago
    Looking at SPCX it lost half of its valuation in a month and the trajectory is only heading downwards. Out of the three expedited IPO requests (OpenAI, SPCX, Anthropoid) to the S&P 500 only SPCX was approved. The other two did not fulfill expedited IPO requirements. To recap, the only AI company (xAI) going into the market lost half of its valuation in a month, and the other players are tooo dodgy to enter. When they will eventually, boy will you see the bubble pop
  - carlosjobim 3mo ago
    Consider everything it takes in organization to be able to send rockets to space and bring them back. That kind of organization would be able to do anything. There is where the value is. The world is not static and people are not static.
- SchemaLoad 3mo ago
  It's already burst in South Korea when China showed they can make memory chips too. And it would have burst by now in the US if OpenAI and Anthropic were public.
  - Nition 3mo ago
    The SK stock market is still up 55% since the start of this year.
    - BLKNSLVR 3mo ago
      It is interesting looking at a long term chart how obvious that it was due for correction. Having said that, it's easy to say that after the correction because 'the top' is impossible to predict. But if investors hadn't been taking profits on the incline, then I have little sympathy for them skiing down the decline. (This is a harsh opinion, but people getting into investing should be doing it actively, not passively, ie. do some research, make a plan. Also, for those who are invested passively, long term, via ETFs, then they're still up 55% as @Nition says, so they're all good)
      - SchemaLoad 2mo ago
        Active investing was the source of the problem here. Retail investors were buying leveraged bets on Samsung and SK Hynix which has wiped out their investment now it's crashed. Had they passively invested in indexes over a long time they would be up still.
- cortesoft 3mo ago
  People buying shares at a given price does not necessarily mean they believe the company is worth that much https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
  - Barbing 3mo ago
    Can a person get their Roth IRA on a stoploss to make sure it’s everyone else left holding the bag? Asking for an antisocial friend Ah with a decade or two time horizon it shouldn’t matter how hard it crashes if Zitron & Doctorow are proven right… rightttt!
  - bookofjoe 3mo ago
    >Keynesian beauty contest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest
- amazingamazing 3mo ago
  It is only a matter of time until China can make everything needed for sub 8nm chips in their own country. Maybe 10 years away, but it is inevitable.
- karim79 3mo ago
  +1 for the word Cringelord. I have taken this and shall use it on my journeys.
- underlipton 3mo ago
  This is also why nothing will lower housing prices significantly. The problem isn't inventory, or that we're not subsidizing builders enough, or whatever. It's that we've decided that propping up housing values is more important than housing being affordable. And you cannot have both, full stop.
- grg0 3mo ago
  "cringelord" I cracked. Had never seen that used before, yet so obvious now in retrospect. Pure poetry.
slig 3mo ago
Do you plan to bet on this by buying PUTs? Should be easy money, right? /s
- amazingamazing 3mo ago
  OpenAI isn’t public so… /s
- ecshafer 3mo ago
  Tesla is imo overvalued and has been for a long time. Its bankrupted a lot of pretty savvy investors in the last 10 years trying to short them because its obviously over valued. Market irrationality vs solvency and all of that.
  - thenewnewguy 3mo ago
    While I agree with you in general, usernametaken29 made a specific prediction about OpenAI's IPO which is an event that will very likely happen in the next year or so. That said, OpenAI isn't public, so you can't directly short it easily. I guess you could short Microsoft but I don't know if that gives you enough exposure to truly be worth it, even if you do genuinely believe what OOP claims.
    - jerf 3mo ago
      IPOs experiencing significant drops after their IPO is not a crazy theory, it's pretty much the norm: https://potomacwealthmanagementllc.com/2026/03/04/underperforming-ipo-stocks/ https://potomacwealthmanagementllc.com/2026/03/04/underperfo... Not guaranteed, but the norm. I've never tried to buy PUTs on a big IPO but I wouldn't be surprised that there's a premium on them, if options trading is even available.
      - fadesibert 3mo ago
        Your instinct is correct. Options markets are wide following an IPO (ie there is a significant difference between the price at which a dealer will sell a specific option at a specific strike for a specific time). That tends to settle down ~60 days after trading, with seasonsed order flow, a realized volatility pattern, Observed volumes, open interest, liquidity in the stock (eg hedging becomes cheaper) and naturally - competition between market makers. Wide spreads are profitable for options dealers (and you need that profit to absorb losses where risk is misjudged or the stock is unpredictable) - but if two dealers are making excess profits offering wide markets in an option, a 3rd will join and undercut them. Source - I was a quant at a large investment bank, with ~5 years facing the Equity markets / 13 years across many desks and teams. Here's a chart of the last 20 IPOs with their Relative Spread (Bid + Offer / Midpoint) on each successive day of trading to show the tightening of spreads over time. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-bLekd5OonnrlEZyjRPNQYZmvnGZXigt/view https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-bLekd5OonnrlEZyjRPNQYZmvnG...
ProllyInfamous 3mo ago
When the majority of a decades-long-scams' victims are Boomers getting hacked with AIs (clearing out your possibly-lesser inheritances)... does it still matter if the /u/usernametake29s of this world are still stuck thinking LLMs are "a scam" ? Still? ---- This thought-provoker is 100% human-derived. #They'reMadeOutOfWeights ---- I didn't even realize how serious I was being, back in late 2022, when I was telling my Boomer friends (twice my age, but still closer than most "family") "make sure if you're grand-daugther calls 'begging for her life,' you need to ask the kidnappers something only she would know – and then *you can never ask that same question again (for verification, at least; ask whatever you want). We are here.

If someone who is as unpopular as Elon the cringelord Musk can convince the markets that Tesla is worth its current stock price, I doubt the AI bubble will burst.

asdfman123 3mo ago
He can keep the scam going for a long time but not forever.
- usernametaken29 3mo ago
  Looking at SPCX it lost half of its valuation in a month and the trajectory is only heading downwards. Out of the three expedited IPO requests (OpenAI, SPCX, Anthropoid) to the S&P 500 only SPCX was approved. The other two did not fulfill expedited IPO requirements. To recap, the only AI company (xAI) going into the market lost half of its valuation in a month, and the other players are tooo dodgy to enter. When they will eventually, boy will you see the bubble pop
- carlosjobim 3mo ago
  Consider everything it takes in organization to be able to send rockets to space and bring them back. That kind of organization would be able to do anything. There is where the value is. The world is not static and people are not static.
SchemaLoad 3mo ago
It's already burst in South Korea when China showed they can make memory chips too. And it would have burst by now in the US if OpenAI and Anthropic were public.
- Nition 3mo ago
  The SK stock market is still up 55% since the start of this year.
  - BLKNSLVR 3mo ago
    It is interesting looking at a long term chart how obvious that it was due for correction. Having said that, it's easy to say that after the correction because 'the top' is impossible to predict. But if investors hadn't been taking profits on the incline, then I have little sympathy for them skiing down the decline. (This is a harsh opinion, but people getting into investing should be doing it actively, not passively, ie. do some research, make a plan. Also, for those who are invested passively, long term, via ETFs, then they're still up 55% as @Nition says, so they're all good)
    - SchemaLoad 2mo ago
      Active investing was the source of the problem here. Retail investors were buying leveraged bets on Samsung and SK Hynix which has wiped out their investment now it's crashed. Had they passively invested in indexes over a long time they would be up still.
cortesoft 3mo ago
People buying shares at a given price does not necessarily mean they believe the company is worth that much https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
- Barbing 3mo ago
  Can a person get their Roth IRA on a stoploss to make sure it’s everyone else left holding the bag? Asking for an antisocial friend Ah with a decade or two time horizon it shouldn’t matter how hard it crashes if Zitron & Doctorow are proven right… rightttt!
- bookofjoe 3mo ago
  >Keynesian beauty contest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest
amazingamazing 3mo ago
It is only a matter of time until China can make everything needed for sub 8nm chips in their own country. Maybe 10 years away, but it is inevitable.
karim79 3mo ago
+1 for the word Cringelord. I have taken this and shall use it on my journeys.
underlipton 3mo ago
This is also why nothing will lower housing prices significantly. The problem isn't inventory, or that we're not subsidizing builders enough, or whatever. It's that we've decided that propping up housing values is more important than housing being affordable. And you cannot have both, full stop.
grg0 3mo ago
"cringelord" I cracked. Had never seen that used before, yet so obvious now in retrospect. Pure poetry.

slig 3mo ago

Do you plan to bet on this by buying PUTs? Should be easy money, right? /s

amazingamazing 3mo ago
OpenAI isn’t public so… /s
ecshafer 3mo ago
Tesla is imo overvalued and has been for a long time. Its bankrupted a lot of pretty savvy investors in the last 10 years trying to short them because its obviously over valued. Market irrationality vs solvency and all of that.
- thenewnewguy 3mo ago
  While I agree with you in general, usernametaken29 made a specific prediction about OpenAI's IPO which is an event that will very likely happen in the next year or so. That said, OpenAI isn't public, so you can't directly short it easily. I guess you could short Microsoft but I don't know if that gives you enough exposure to truly be worth it, even if you do genuinely believe what OOP claims.
  - jerf 3mo ago
    IPOs experiencing significant drops after their IPO is not a crazy theory, it's pretty much the norm: https://potomacwealthmanagementllc.com/2026/03/04/underperforming-ipo-stocks/ https://potomacwealthmanagementllc.com/2026/03/04/underperfo... Not guaranteed, but the norm. I've never tried to buy PUTs on a big IPO but I wouldn't be surprised that there's a premium on them, if options trading is even available.
    - fadesibert 3mo ago
      Your instinct is correct. Options markets are wide following an IPO (ie there is a significant difference between the price at which a dealer will sell a specific option at a specific strike for a specific time). That tends to settle down ~60 days after trading, with seasonsed order flow, a realized volatility pattern, Observed volumes, open interest, liquidity in the stock (eg hedging becomes cheaper) and naturally - competition between market makers. Wide spreads are profitable for options dealers (and you need that profit to absorb losses where risk is misjudged or the stock is unpredictable) - but if two dealers are making excess profits offering wide markets in an option, a 3rd will join and undercut them. Source - I was a quant at a large investment bank, with ~5 years facing the Equity markets / 13 years across many desks and teams. Here's a chart of the last 20 IPOs with their Relative Spread (Bid + Offer / Midpoint) on each successive day of trading to show the tightening of spreads over time. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-bLekd5OonnrlEZyjRPNQYZmvnGZXigt/view https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-bLekd5OonnrlEZyjRPNQYZmvnG...

ProllyInfamous 3mo ago

When the majority of a decades-long-scams' victims are Boomers getting hacked with AIs (clearing out your possibly-lesser inheritances)... does it still matter if the /u/usernametake29s of this world are still stuck thinking LLMs are "a scam" ? Still? ---- This thought-provoker is 100% human-derived. #They'reMadeOutOfWeights ---- I didn't even realize how serious I was being, back in late 2022, when I was telling my Boomer friends (twice my age, but still closer than most "family") "make sure if you're grand-daugther calls 'begging for her life,' you need to ask the kidnappers something only she would know – and then *you can never ask that same question again (for verification, at least; ask whatever you want). We are here.