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Because driving risk is far from evenly distributed. If a self-driving car drives like an average human driver, for responsible drivers, this would mean incurr

Because driving risk is far from evenly distributed. If a self-driving car drives like an average human driver, for responsible drivers, this would mean incurring more risk by getting into one. A huge portion of the risk of human drivers is due to confounding human factors like negligence, distraction, medical issues, fatigue, etc. Responsible drivers can take most of these factors into their own hands -- not driving while sleepy, not driving drunk, not using their cell phone. These people don't want a vehicle A better comparison would be comparing the capability of a self-driving car to the skill of a human driver driving under ideal circumstances of health/responsibility/etc.

otterley 2mo ago
We don't measure aggregate risk by discarding a part of the population, even if it's the poorer-performing part. Even today, you cannot fully avoid this risk: when you get into a vehicle driven by a stranger, you don't know a priori whether the driver is excellent or average. Ideally customer feedback weeds out poor drivers and reduces accident rates, but I'm not privy to data that would prove or disprove whether that actually happens - especially because new drivers join the pool every day.
- kube-system 2mo ago
  We absolutely can and do mitigate these risks when getting into vehicles driven by strangers: professional drivers typically have higher standards for driving history, and people can physically observe whether a friend/etc is drunk/distracted/etc. But besides that, the people who are in the socioeconomic demographic to buy an expensive self driving car overlap with the demographic that have lower driving risk. For them, the self-driving car is more dangerous than driving themselves.
  - deleted 2mo ago
    [deleted]
  - otterley 2mo ago
    That suggests the comparative bar should be "professional driver," which is perhaps somewhat higher than "average driver" (1.5x? 2x?) but not 10x higher.
    - kube-system 2mo ago
      That sounds reasonable for a practical general regulatory standard. For a personal standard, it is reasonable that an individual purchaser may use their own risk profile as that standard... as many of the risks involved are not random but can be controlled through choice or are inherently personal. For example, about half of all traffic deaths are due to drowsy or drunk driving. Accident risk for any given driver is highly distributed. For someone making a marginal choice to purchase a car, the choice they are faced with is choosing between the safety profile of a self-driving car and their own personal risk profile.

otterley 2mo ago

We don't measure aggregate risk by discarding a part of the population, even if it's the poorer-performing part. Even today, you cannot fully avoid this risk: when you get into a vehicle driven by a stranger, you don't know a priori whether the driver is excellent or average. Ideally customer feedback weeds out poor drivers and reduces accident rates, but I'm not privy to data that would prove or disprove whether that actually happens - especially because new drivers join the pool every day.

kube-system 2mo ago
We absolutely can and do mitigate these risks when getting into vehicles driven by strangers: professional drivers typically have higher standards for driving history, and people can physically observe whether a friend/etc is drunk/distracted/etc. But besides that, the people who are in the socioeconomic demographic to buy an expensive self driving car overlap with the demographic that have lower driving risk. For them, the self-driving car is more dangerous than driving themselves.
- deleted 2mo ago
  [deleted]
- otterley 2mo ago
  That suggests the comparative bar should be "professional driver," which is perhaps somewhat higher than "average driver" (1.5x? 2x?) but not 10x higher.
  - kube-system 2mo ago
    That sounds reasonable for a practical general regulatory standard. For a personal standard, it is reasonable that an individual purchaser may use their own risk profile as that standard... as many of the risks involved are not random but can be controlled through choice or are inherently personal. For example, about half of all traffic deaths are due to drowsy or drunk driving. Accident risk for any given driver is highly distributed. For someone making a marginal choice to purchase a car, the choice they are faced with is choosing between the safety profile of a self-driving car and their own personal risk profile.