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So in a couple years now, AI will be as gone as cabbage patch kids and pet rocks? IMO that's anti-AI Psychosis, the evil twin of believing GPT-4o was sentient.

So in a couple years now, AI will be as gone as cabbage patch kids and pet rocks? IMO that's anti-AI Psychosis, the evil twin of believing GPT-4o was sentient. And a really bad case of it is labeling anyone who disagrees with you in any way as having AI Psychosis for doing so. And your first line sounds exactly like that to me. IMO coding agents alone have made AI viable. Healthcare applications have done the same, but coding agents will print money as the cost of tokens drops, and it is dropping. In the meantime, max plans are obviously subsidized, but as long as most of their holders don't token max, they are the netflix of AI until that changes. https://pricepertoken.com/trends https://pricepertoken.com/trends We needed OpenAI and Anthropic to get us there, but we're there now, and they need to adapt or they will be reduced to glorified neoclouds in the long run. I also predict publicly traded companies that are AI-first with huge PE ratios will go through some things. What I will not do is even try to pin a date on that. The market can stay irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent. But I wouldn't worry so much about companies with high gross margin and PE ratios of 40 or less. Time in the market beats timing the market and all that. TBF my realtor was telling me about the "Got a pulse? Here's your mortgage!" issue starting in late 2004 after a bizarre conversation with his favorite loan agent after she had done too many tequila shots and started blabbing about basically giving loans to anyone. 100% true story. But again, good luck timing the crash.

dofm 2mo ago
> So in a couple years now, AI will be as gone as cabbage patch kids and pet rocks? > IMO that's anti-AI Psychosis, the evil twin of believing GPT-4o was sentient. IMO that’s a particularly scraggly straw man. Even Ed Zitron, who we can stipulate is among the most cynical, thinks that some value will be left after the bubble either deflates or bursts.
- LogicFailsMe 2mo ago
  So some value, but how much value? You clearly don't like the idea there are some businesses in the AI mix that will continue making money and/or diversify their divisions to cover for any losses they suffer during this hypothetical crash or I wouldn't be getting downvoted for it. META, for example, is running a gross margin of 80% or so right now. You really think they're in trouble? So really, after all of these companies are wiped off the map because the bubble popped and they went broke, what will be left? Let's get specific here. Let's make some hard falsifiable predictions. I predict bumpy IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI, maybe even ending in acquisition instead. I predict anything with a PE over 100 is in trouble. But I also predict anyone with a PE of 40 or less is going to be just fine. Like Michael Burry said, just like Cisco, now running a PE in the high 30s after going through some things. Finally, coding agents are here to stay and they will only get better and cheaper, but they are unlikely to replace common sense meatbags. So what are your predictions?
  - dofm 2mo ago
    > You clearly don't like the idea there are some businesses in the AI mix that will continue making money and/or diversify their divisions to cover for any losses they suffer during this hypothetical crash or I wouldn't be getting downvoted for it. Me? I didn't downvote you for it and you are projecting a lot onto me without a sound basis. Either way, my predictions are all personal, because as someone with his own problems I don't really have the spare energy to give a fuck what happens to the US economy or its tech industry. In practice for the rest of the world, I think it will all be dwarfed by the USA's failings in the Strait of Hormuz. Though as a man in his fifties who has spent his life in the tech industry, I am slightly invested in the possibility of Larry Ellison's humiliation. Bring that on.
    - LogicFailsMe 2mo ago
      Look, if you like his vibes, that's totally cool but it's also a bit GPT-4o. He's predicting a vague crash that will happen someday and he's been predicting it for a while now (2024). It didn't happen yet. His value as a prophet of the AI bubble is going down by the day, but if it's the gospel you want and/or need to hear, by all means... But also, if you don't want to talk about this stuff, why comment about it?
      - dofm 2mo ago
        > His value as a prophet of the AI bubble is going down by the day Is it? I don't think this is really true. For example he's spent some time talking about Oracle's relatively more dangerous exposure to OpenAI. Here he is back in April: https://shows.acast.com/the-tech-report/episodes/how-openai-ends-and-takes-oracle-with-it-ed-zitron https://shows.acast.com/the-tech-report/episodes/how-openai-... Here's S&P in July, downgrading Oracle specifically because of their exposure to risks from OpenAI. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101695609 https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/vie... > and he's been predicting it for a while now (2024) Like I said elsewhere, the first accurate, detailed, correct predictions of the subprime crisis were made four years before it finally unfolded. There's likely at least one more round of funding to come for both OpenAI and Anthropic. The big systemic risk to the USA is if the bubble bursts in 2028, if you ask me; that is shaping up to be a restless year. > but if it's the gospel you want and/or need to hear, It's not, especially? I listen every now and then; I don't even use a podcast app as a rule, so I'm far from a subscriber or follower. I am more interested in what Cal Newport has to say. I am probably slightly less bearish about AI's long tail value than Zitron is, as it goes. > But also, if you don't want to talk about this stuff, why comment about it? I'm happy to talk about it. I just don't care enough to make predictions beyond the personal, because I'm just not that invested and other people are better at it than me. To the extent that I think personal observations scale up to the rest of the world, I would say that leads me to think that on-device AI will very significantly derail optimistic consumer AI revenue predictions (in particular OpenAI's), that cloud-based agentic coding is closer to its useful limits than people so far understand, that local (on-prem or boutique-hosted if not necessarily on-device) LLMs will do more and more of that work, and that as a result the total addressable market for cloud AI in the next five years is closer to its apex than people in the industry think. But I am not going to bother to make more specific predictions about the fates of the two big AI companies or the value of the market, because I am not invested in them or the celebrity OpenAI/Anthropic employee influencer aspect of it. I have no team (and I am trying to avoid the products as much as possible). I have learned in my life not to have too much anxiety about things that won't affect me or I am not close enough to influence. My limited interest in AI is in the potential offered by smaller models, and I personally think people in the tech industry are thinking in a shallow, FOMO way, obsessing about shiny "frontier" model baubles and what a handful of overpaid loudmouths think, when they should be spending that energy exploring running open weights models and open source tools.

dofm 2mo ago

> So in a couple years now, AI will be as gone as cabbage patch kids and pet rocks? > IMO that's anti-AI Psychosis, the evil twin of believing GPT-4o was sentient. IMO that’s a particularly scraggly straw man. Even Ed Zitron, who we can stipulate is among the most cynical, thinks that some value will be left after the bubble either deflates or bursts.

LogicFailsMe 2mo ago
So some value, but how much value? You clearly don't like the idea there are some businesses in the AI mix that will continue making money and/or diversify their divisions to cover for any losses they suffer during this hypothetical crash or I wouldn't be getting downvoted for it. META, for example, is running a gross margin of 80% or so right now. You really think they're in trouble? So really, after all of these companies are wiped off the map because the bubble popped and they went broke, what will be left? Let's get specific here. Let's make some hard falsifiable predictions. I predict bumpy IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI, maybe even ending in acquisition instead. I predict anything with a PE over 100 is in trouble. But I also predict anyone with a PE of 40 or less is going to be just fine. Like Michael Burry said, just like Cisco, now running a PE in the high 30s after going through some things. Finally, coding agents are here to stay and they will only get better and cheaper, but they are unlikely to replace common sense meatbags. So what are your predictions?
- dofm 2mo ago
  > You clearly don't like the idea there are some businesses in the AI mix that will continue making money and/or diversify their divisions to cover for any losses they suffer during this hypothetical crash or I wouldn't be getting downvoted for it. Me? I didn't downvote you for it and you are projecting a lot onto me without a sound basis. Either way, my predictions are all personal, because as someone with his own problems I don't really have the spare energy to give a fuck what happens to the US economy or its tech industry. In practice for the rest of the world, I think it will all be dwarfed by the USA's failings in the Strait of Hormuz. Though as a man in his fifties who has spent his life in the tech industry, I am slightly invested in the possibility of Larry Ellison's humiliation. Bring that on.
  - LogicFailsMe 2mo ago
    Look, if you like his vibes, that's totally cool but it's also a bit GPT-4o. He's predicting a vague crash that will happen someday and he's been predicting it for a while now (2024). It didn't happen yet. His value as a prophet of the AI bubble is going down by the day, but if it's the gospel you want and/or need to hear, by all means... But also, if you don't want to talk about this stuff, why comment about it?
    - dofm 2mo ago
      > His value as a prophet of the AI bubble is going down by the day Is it? I don't think this is really true. For example he's spent some time talking about Oracle's relatively more dangerous exposure to OpenAI. Here he is back in April: https://shows.acast.com/the-tech-report/episodes/how-openai-ends-and-takes-oracle-with-it-ed-zitron https://shows.acast.com/the-tech-report/episodes/how-openai-... Here's S&P in July, downgrading Oracle specifically because of their exposure to risks from OpenAI. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101695609 https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/vie... > and he's been predicting it for a while now (2024) Like I said elsewhere, the first accurate, detailed, correct predictions of the subprime crisis were made four years before it finally unfolded. There's likely at least one more round of funding to come for both OpenAI and Anthropic. The big systemic risk to the USA is if the bubble bursts in 2028, if you ask me; that is shaping up to be a restless year. > but if it's the gospel you want and/or need to hear, It's not, especially? I listen every now and then; I don't even use a podcast app as a rule, so I'm far from a subscriber or follower. I am more interested in what Cal Newport has to say. I am probably slightly less bearish about AI's long tail value than Zitron is, as it goes. > But also, if you don't want to talk about this stuff, why comment about it? I'm happy to talk about it. I just don't care enough to make predictions beyond the personal, because I'm just not that invested and other people are better at it than me. To the extent that I think personal observations scale up to the rest of the world, I would say that leads me to think that on-device AI will very significantly derail optimistic consumer AI revenue predictions (in particular OpenAI's), that cloud-based agentic coding is closer to its useful limits than people so far understand, that local (on-prem or boutique-hosted if not necessarily on-device) LLMs will do more and more of that work, and that as a result the total addressable market for cloud AI in the next five years is closer to its apex than people in the industry think. But I am not going to bother to make more specific predictions about the fates of the two big AI companies or the value of the market, because I am not invested in them or the celebrity OpenAI/Anthropic employee influencer aspect of it. I have no team (and I am trying to avoid the products as much as possible). I have learned in my life not to have too much anxiety about things that won't affect me or I am not close enough to influence. My limited interest in AI is in the potential offered by smaller models, and I personally think people in the tech industry are thinking in a shallow, FOMO way, obsessing about shiny "frontier" model baubles and what a handful of overpaid loudmouths think, when they should be spending that energy exploring running open weights models and open source tools.