4 ms·

Yeah, it's not like there are AI-focused hedge funds crashing and burning right now.

gizajob 2mo ago
One, very over-leveraged and risk-thirsty speculative vehicle crashed and burned during its first market cycle of bullishness the first time there was a reasonable pullback. Hedge funds in general got a boost from this implosion.
gizmodo59 2mo ago
If your comment is referring to situational awareness, its due to 4x leverage. leverage is always risky. AI/semis are still doing extremely well (over last 2 years) despite the recent dip
- tim333 2mo ago
  And run by a ~23 year old who I don't think had managed money before. It's easy to screw up leveraged trading irrespective of the virtues of AI. The fund is still well up because approximately 25% of the fund’s assets were invested in Anthropic, which has done well but is not very liquid yet.
vonneumannstan 2mo ago
Its up 80% on the year. How do your investments compare?
- cmiles8 2mo ago
  This is the most misquoted bit in that whole fiasco. He apparently had to sell every liquid thing in the portfolio. What’s left is allegedly just some highly illiquid paper assets that they’ve also been trying to unload. The present value of those is iffy at best and may well also plummet before they can be cashed in. That “80%” can’t be realized right now in any traditional sense. No matter how you slice it the whole sequence of events last week was an unmitigated disaster. He’ll likely never manage other people’s money ever again.
  - striking 2mo ago
    He was lucky to be managing any money at all, the West Coast smiling upon him did not translate into East Coast excitement: > When this star of San Francisco arrived in New York during his fund-raising tour around last summer, however, he received a relatively cool reception, according to three people from whom he tried to raise money, who declined to be identified talking about a private fund. They said they viewed him as a lightweight and a one-hit wonder. The asset management colossus Blackstone, the world’s largest investor in hedge funds, passed on investing, according to two of those people. > One wealthy New York investor who did take the meeting welcomed Mr. Aschenbrenner into his downtown office, and then gave him a grilling, according to the investor, who declined to be named publicly because he had agreed to keep the contents of the fund’s pitch private. > What was Mr. Aschenbrenner’s plan if the A.I. revolution didn’t pan out quite as hoped? The hedge-fund founder had no detailed response, the investor recalled. Mr. Aschenbrenner simply truly believed it would all work out. (as quoted in https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-08-03/hedgehog-hedge-fund https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-08-03/hed..., originally from https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/business/situational-awareness-leopold-aschenbrenner.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/business/situational-awar...)
    - cmiles8 2mo ago
      Yes… the “trust me bro” vibe doesn’t play well with East Coast money
  - ElProlactin 2mo ago
    > No matter how you slice it the whole sequence of events last week was an unmitigated disaster. It actually wasn't an unmitigated disaster. He was overleveraged and apparently had the dumbest hedges (he was long AI and short software and when AI was down software was up so his hedges didn't hedge). Citadel swooped in and bought the public equity portfolio. That's the definition of mitigated. There was no propagation of the fund's losses to other financial institutions. This made for great headlines but it was a nothingburger as far as markets are concerned. > He’ll likely never manage other people’s money ever again. He didn't close the fund so he's still managing other people's money. And while nothing about his profile would ever persuade me to be his LP, you're underestimating the fact that a pristine track record isn't required to raise money. Given this kid's profile and the fact that he made an obvious mistake (even if it was big), there are probably people out there who still have an appetite for parking money with him.
LogicFailsMe 2mo ago
So the thing is just like America isn't entirely Donald Trump, AI is not entirely Sam Altman, Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, Mark Zuckerberg, Dario Amodei, and Leopold Aschenbrenner, but you wouldn't know it reading the social media feeds.

One, very over-leveraged and risk-thirsty speculative vehicle crashed and burned during its first market cycle of bullishness the first time there was a reasonable pullback. Hedge funds in general got a boost from this implosion.

gizmodo59 2mo ago

If your comment is referring to situational awareness, its due to 4x leverage. leverage is always risky. AI/semis are still doing extremely well (over last 2 years) despite the recent dip

tim333 2mo ago
And run by a ~23 year old who I don't think had managed money before. It's easy to screw up leveraged trading irrespective of the virtues of AI. The fund is still well up because approximately 25% of the fund’s assets were invested in Anthropic, which has done well but is not very liquid yet.

vonneumannstan 2mo ago

Its up 80% on the year. How do your investments compare?

cmiles8 2mo ago
This is the most misquoted bit in that whole fiasco. He apparently had to sell every liquid thing in the portfolio. What’s left is allegedly just some highly illiquid paper assets that they’ve also been trying to unload. The present value of those is iffy at best and may well also plummet before they can be cashed in. That “80%” can’t be realized right now in any traditional sense. No matter how you slice it the whole sequence of events last week was an unmitigated disaster. He’ll likely never manage other people’s money ever again.
- striking 2mo ago
  He was lucky to be managing any money at all, the West Coast smiling upon him did not translate into East Coast excitement: > When this star of San Francisco arrived in New York during his fund-raising tour around last summer, however, he received a relatively cool reception, according to three people from whom he tried to raise money, who declined to be identified talking about a private fund. They said they viewed him as a lightweight and a one-hit wonder. The asset management colossus Blackstone, the world’s largest investor in hedge funds, passed on investing, according to two of those people. > One wealthy New York investor who did take the meeting welcomed Mr. Aschenbrenner into his downtown office, and then gave him a grilling, according to the investor, who declined to be named publicly because he had agreed to keep the contents of the fund’s pitch private. > What was Mr. Aschenbrenner’s plan if the A.I. revolution didn’t pan out quite as hoped? The hedge-fund founder had no detailed response, the investor recalled. Mr. Aschenbrenner simply truly believed it would all work out. (as quoted in https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-08-03/hedgehog-hedge-fund https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-08-03/hed..., originally from https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/business/situational-awareness-leopold-aschenbrenner.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/business/situational-awar...)
  - cmiles8 2mo ago
    Yes… the “trust me bro” vibe doesn’t play well with East Coast money
- ElProlactin 2mo ago
  > No matter how you slice it the whole sequence of events last week was an unmitigated disaster. It actually wasn't an unmitigated disaster. He was overleveraged and apparently had the dumbest hedges (he was long AI and short software and when AI was down software was up so his hedges didn't hedge). Citadel swooped in and bought the public equity portfolio. That's the definition of mitigated. There was no propagation of the fund's losses to other financial institutions. This made for great headlines but it was a nothingburger as far as markets are concerned. > He’ll likely never manage other people’s money ever again. He didn't close the fund so he's still managing other people's money. And while nothing about his profile would ever persuade me to be his LP, you're underestimating the fact that a pristine track record isn't required to raise money. Given this kid's profile and the fact that he made an obvious mistake (even if it was big), there are probably people out there who still have an appetite for parking money with him.

LogicFailsMe 2mo ago

So the thing is just like America isn't entirely Donald Trump, AI is not entirely Sam Altman, Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, Mark Zuckerberg, Dario Amodei, and Leopold Aschenbrenner, but you wouldn't know it reading the social media feeds.