8 ms·

Is your ad hominem attack any better?

semiquaver 2mo ago
I don’t see how “This guy has no experience in the field he is actively commentating on. None of his predictions have come to pass.” is an ad hominem. The critiques are directly relevant to the subject matter.
- parineum 2mo ago
  Would you expect someone in the AI industry to predict the collapse of the AI industry? I'm sure there weren't a ton of bankers predicting the mortgage collapse of 2008 but I, a young programmer of mortgage software could see something was weird (but didn't realize that it wasn't the norm).
  - francisofascii 2mo ago
    curious, what weird things did you see?
    - parineum 2mo ago
      It's nothing special that's not already pretty well known by now. It was seeing how popular loans that were some combination of zero documentation, baloon payments and jumbo loans. People were getting multi-million dollar loans with no documentation which had affordable introductory payment and then ballooned to many times the payment. I had no idea that wasn't normal but I was surprised when I learned that it was possible. I just lacked context and understanding of how the mortgage/banking industry really worked. Had I known as much as I do now after having been adulting for a while and become much more familiar with how banking really works, I could have seen that there was a massive pool of risk that was relying on the value of the housing market to not just keep increasing but increase at an incredible rate. All that it took was for the market to slow down just a little and then all those balloon payments would start defaulting because they couldn't be refinance again. I couldn't have predicted everything that happened or who exactly would be holding the bag but, with just a couple more pieces of knowledge, I could have easily seen it was unsustainable.
  - 4674745745 2mo ago
    [flagged]
    - dofm 2mo ago
      Fully possible to square those two things. Like, if you were young and you knew even trivial things about how much your parents or relatives earned, you might have thought “how can they afford this new house” but then see others getting new houses and assume that your own limited knowledge is at fault, when in fact the situation was a mix of irrational exuberance, ignorance, greed, head-in-the-sand avoidance, blind eyes turned to fraud, and absurd rates of commission and mis-selling, and your naïve common sense interpretation was correct. In retrospect it seems that one of the hallmarks of a property boom is people being persuaded they can afford mortgages they can't, or persuaded to round up, pad their application, and willing naïve people lining up to be sold stuff they can't afford, out of an urge to take advantage of what is being sold as a golden opportunity. In this bubble, one of the hallmarks is CEOs pressuring employees to use AI, urging suppliers to sell them AI solutions they can report to their investors, etc.; people are eager to buy things with fully unproven value out of an urge to take advantage of what is being sold as a golden opportunity.
  - srveale 2mo ago
    If it does come to pass, the AI version of the Big Short will be wildly entertaining
    - dofm 2mo ago
      If it gets a distributor!
  - LogicFailsMe 2mo ago
    So in a couple years now, AI will be as gone as cabbage patch kids and pet rocks? IMO that's anti-AI Psychosis, the evil twin of believing GPT-4o was sentient. And a really bad case of it is labeling anyone who disagrees with you in any way as having AI Psychosis for doing so. And your first line sounds exactly like that to me. IMO coding agents alone have made AI viable. Healthcare applications have done the same, but coding agents will print money as the cost of tokens drops, and it is dropping. In the meantime, max plans are obviously subsidized, but as long as most of their holders don't token max, they are the netflix of AI until that changes. https://pricepertoken.com/trends https://pricepertoken.com/trends We needed OpenAI and Anthropic to get us there, but we're there now, and they need to adapt or they will be reduced to glorified neoclouds in the long run. I also predict publicly traded companies that are AI-first with huge PE ratios will go through some things. What I will not do is even try to pin a date on that. The market can stay irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent. But I wouldn't worry so much about companies with high gross margin and PE ratios of 40 or less. Time in the market beats timing the market and all that. TBF my realtor was telling me about the "Got a pulse? Here's your mortgage!" issue starting in late 2004 after a bizarre conversation with his favorite loan agent after she had done too many tequila shots and started blabbing about basically giving loans to anyone. 100% true story. But again, good luck timing the crash.
    - dofm 2mo ago
      > So in a couple years now, AI will be as gone as cabbage patch kids and pet rocks? > IMO that's anti-AI Psychosis, the evil twin of believing GPT-4o was sentient. IMO that’s a particularly scraggly straw man. Even Ed Zitron, who we can stipulate is among the most cynical, thinks that some value will be left after the bubble either deflates or bursts.
      - LogicFailsMe 2mo ago
        So some value, but how much value? You clearly don't like the idea there are some businesses in the AI mix that will continue making money and/or diversify their divisions to cover for any losses they suffer during this hypothetical crash or I wouldn't be getting downvoted for it. META, for example, is running a gross margin of 80% or so right now. You really think they're in trouble? So really, after all of these companies are wiped off the map because the bubble popped and they went broke, what will be left? Let's get specific here. Let's make some hard falsifiable predictions. I predict bumpy IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI, maybe even ending in acquisition instead. I predict anything with a PE over 100 is in trouble. But I also predict anyone with a PE of 40 or less is going to be just fine. Like Michael Burry said, just like Cisco, now running a PE in the high 30s after going through some things. Finally, coding agents are here to stay and they will only get better and cheaper, but they are unlikely to replace common sense meatbags. So what are your predictions?
  - deleted 2mo ago
    [deleted]
gyanchawdhary 2mo ago
[dead]

I don’t see how “This guy has no experience in the field he is actively commentating on. None of his predictions have come to pass.” is an ad hominem. The critiques are directly relevant to the subject matter.

parineum 2mo ago
Would you expect someone in the AI industry to predict the collapse of the AI industry? I'm sure there weren't a ton of bankers predicting the mortgage collapse of 2008 but I, a young programmer of mortgage software could see something was weird (but didn't realize that it wasn't the norm).
- francisofascii 2mo ago
  curious, what weird things did you see?
  - parineum 2mo ago
    It's nothing special that's not already pretty well known by now. It was seeing how popular loans that were some combination of zero documentation, baloon payments and jumbo loans. People were getting multi-million dollar loans with no documentation which had affordable introductory payment and then ballooned to many times the payment. I had no idea that wasn't normal but I was surprised when I learned that it was possible. I just lacked context and understanding of how the mortgage/banking industry really worked. Had I known as much as I do now after having been adulting for a while and become much more familiar with how banking really works, I could have seen that there was a massive pool of risk that was relying on the value of the housing market to not just keep increasing but increase at an incredible rate. All that it took was for the market to slow down just a little and then all those balloon payments would start defaulting because they couldn't be refinance again. I couldn't have predicted everything that happened or who exactly would be holding the bag but, with just a couple more pieces of knowledge, I could have easily seen it was unsustainable.
- 4674745745 2mo ago
  [flagged]
  - dofm 2mo ago
    Fully possible to square those two things. Like, if you were young and you knew even trivial things about how much your parents or relatives earned, you might have thought “how can they afford this new house” but then see others getting new houses and assume that your own limited knowledge is at fault, when in fact the situation was a mix of irrational exuberance, ignorance, greed, head-in-the-sand avoidance, blind eyes turned to fraud, and absurd rates of commission and mis-selling, and your naïve common sense interpretation was correct. In retrospect it seems that one of the hallmarks of a property boom is people being persuaded they can afford mortgages they can't, or persuaded to round up, pad their application, and willing naïve people lining up to be sold stuff they can't afford, out of an urge to take advantage of what is being sold as a golden opportunity. In this bubble, one of the hallmarks is CEOs pressuring employees to use AI, urging suppliers to sell them AI solutions they can report to their investors, etc.; people are eager to buy things with fully unproven value out of an urge to take advantage of what is being sold as a golden opportunity.
- srveale 2mo ago
  If it does come to pass, the AI version of the Big Short will be wildly entertaining
  - dofm 2mo ago
    If it gets a distributor!
- LogicFailsMe 2mo ago
  So in a couple years now, AI will be as gone as cabbage patch kids and pet rocks? IMO that's anti-AI Psychosis, the evil twin of believing GPT-4o was sentient. And a really bad case of it is labeling anyone who disagrees with you in any way as having AI Psychosis for doing so. And your first line sounds exactly like that to me. IMO coding agents alone have made AI viable. Healthcare applications have done the same, but coding agents will print money as the cost of tokens drops, and it is dropping. In the meantime, max plans are obviously subsidized, but as long as most of their holders don't token max, they are the netflix of AI until that changes. https://pricepertoken.com/trends https://pricepertoken.com/trends We needed OpenAI and Anthropic to get us there, but we're there now, and they need to adapt or they will be reduced to glorified neoclouds in the long run. I also predict publicly traded companies that are AI-first with huge PE ratios will go through some things. What I will not do is even try to pin a date on that. The market can stay irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent. But I wouldn't worry so much about companies with high gross margin and PE ratios of 40 or less. Time in the market beats timing the market and all that. TBF my realtor was telling me about the "Got a pulse? Here's your mortgage!" issue starting in late 2004 after a bizarre conversation with his favorite loan agent after she had done too many tequila shots and started blabbing about basically giving loans to anyone. 100% true story. But again, good luck timing the crash.
  - dofm 2mo ago
    > So in a couple years now, AI will be as gone as cabbage patch kids and pet rocks? > IMO that's anti-AI Psychosis, the evil twin of believing GPT-4o was sentient. IMO that’s a particularly scraggly straw man. Even Ed Zitron, who we can stipulate is among the most cynical, thinks that some value will be left after the bubble either deflates or bursts.
    - LogicFailsMe 2mo ago
      So some value, but how much value? You clearly don't like the idea there are some businesses in the AI mix that will continue making money and/or diversify their divisions to cover for any losses they suffer during this hypothetical crash or I wouldn't be getting downvoted for it. META, for example, is running a gross margin of 80% or so right now. You really think they're in trouble? So really, after all of these companies are wiped off the map because the bubble popped and they went broke, what will be left? Let's get specific here. Let's make some hard falsifiable predictions. I predict bumpy IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI, maybe even ending in acquisition instead. I predict anything with a PE over 100 is in trouble. But I also predict anyone with a PE of 40 or less is going to be just fine. Like Michael Burry said, just like Cisco, now running a PE in the high 30s after going through some things. Finally, coding agents are here to stay and they will only get better and cheaper, but they are unlikely to replace common sense meatbags. So what are your predictions?
- deleted 2mo ago
  [deleted]

gyanchawdhary 2mo ago

[dead]