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What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?
- the_sleaze_ 3mo agoai drivel, sadly / humorously
- lkbm 3mo agoPangram gave 95% human for the chunk (1,547 words) that I gave it. Part of a single paragraph was listed as AI.
- micromacrofoot 3mo ago> More than half of the decline came from a statistical correction to the population level in January and from the steady effects of an aging population, not from workers exiting the labor market. But part of the decline is due to June’s sharp drop in the participation rate among workers ages 25 to 54. > While dramatic, the June drop brings the participation rate among these prime-age workers back to a level consistent with those of recent years. nothing to note unless it continues to drop
- lazide 3mo agoConsidering the prior years were Covid, and the obvious scale tipping from the gov’t? Yeah right.
- micromacrofoot 3mo agowe've had people saying the sky is falling for years now
- lazide 3mo agowho said the sky is falling? i'm just saying if you trust anything in those reports one way or another, I have a bridge to sell you.
- throwitaway222 3mo agomaybe it was that 90% of all hiring in 2020-2024 was foreigners thing?
- lkbm 3mo agoWhat changed in June?
- programmertote 3mo ago> Still, this rate merits carefully watching in coming months; a continued decline may signal a deeper change in the behavior of workers in this critical age group. I know I'm speaking from a rather (somewhat) privileged position. I myself don't consider working beyond 50 years of age. I have lived frugally/minimally and am confident that (unless WW3 happens or some sort of unexpected global catastrophe arrives) I can FIRE (retire frugally with my savings) before I hit 50. I also know it's somewhat of a bubble, but Reddit has a lot of subreddits (like r/HENRYfinance/; r/Fire/; and r/coastFIRE/) dedicated for folks retiring early. Observing that FIRE trend and the fact that AI psychosis (don't get me wrong, I believe AI is useful, but not to a level that humans will be entirely replaced) at work place will surely drive some folks away (or at least discourage them) from staying in the work force, I am not surprised that this trend is showing up in the data. Plus, a lot of millennials are child free (by choice), so they can afford to retire early as well.
- glimshe 3mo agoI bailed out at 50 while fully employed and making a ton of money in big tech - I was not laid off, I simply let my manager know, found a replacement and walked away. I have kids but I saved enough for healthcare, housing etc. I worked my ass off and lived very frugally to get here. Yes, I would be screwed if WW3 comes along, but who wouldn't? That comfy Big Tech job would vanish pretty quickly too. I have no desire to keep working for random "Mikes" and "Bobs" in upper management that only care about their bonuses and stocks. Not in Big Tech, not in random startups, not anywhere else. "Mike wants this", "Bob wants that"... Gosh, I couldn't care less about their "direction"! My days are now full of self-imposed challenges and interesting projects. Am I in the labor force? I guess so, but I'm working for me and humanity now. Time is the most precious asset we all have, folks.
- ryandrake 3mo agoI salute you! I just turned 50, but I never feel I can pull the trigger. The only thing really keeping me from doing it is the cost of health insurance. I've got 15 years before I can get on Medicare, and 15 years of privately purchased health insurance for the family is just not do-able.
- mikert89 3mo agoAnecdotal evidence, but more than half of my friends that grew up: 1. middle upper class 2. college educated at a top 75 college 3. tall, decent looking are just not working regular corporate 9 to 5s and get by with consulting, small businesses, living off parents, living off nothing, scammy startups w2 9-5 is straight up not worth it, even in the 150-300k range
- nh23423fefe 3mo agohow are any of those premises connected to the conclusion?
- mikert89 3mo agopeople that are able to work "good jobs" are choosing not to
- xeromal 3mo agoIf 150k to 300k isn't enough for someone, they need financial therapy
- antonymoose 3mo agoTry raising a classic family of three with a stay at home spouse in that salary in any metro. You will quickly learn how fast those dollars disappear. Somehow my grandfather did this as a painter. Inflation is a killer.
- xeromal 3mo agoOnly if you're trying to keep up with the Joneses.
- antonymoose 3mo agoNope! We live very conservatively. Turns out life is expensive.
- darth_avocado 3mo agoIm in the prime working age and if I didn’t have responsibilities (mortgage, health insurance, dependents etc.), I’d quit today and not participate for at least a couple of years. Corporate treatment of workers has deteriorated at an unprecedented rate since Covid and based on my anecdotal evidence we probably have a national level burnout and depression epidemic that no one is talking about or looking into. Most people I talk to in my age group are experiencing the same feelings.
- lifestyleguru 3mo agoLooks like trickling up of the covid money is definitely complete now.
- reinitctxoffset 3mo ago[flagged]
- reinitctxoffset 3mo ago@dang this gets brigaded? It goes in the lawsuit.
- reinitctxoffset 3mo agoOrganic downvotes at human speed are fine. GP getting flagged at machine speed? Nah dawg. That's a hard no. Edit: oh gee willicker. I completely forgot to mention I chart all of this. I don't even need an HMM. XGboost prints the fucking switch statement.
- devindotcom 3mo agono one understands what you are saying
- inigyou 3mo agoYou got banned, that means all of your comments are now flagged automatically.
- whatever1 3mo agoIn south Europe it has been the case for like 20 years. The answer is simple. Businesses don’t pay enough. People prefer cutting expenses and expectations (nobody in their 30-40s buys a house for example). Businesses cannot find labor or customers. So it is a downward spiral. Everyone loses.
- lifestyleguru 3mo agoDepending on EU country employment contract is impossible to get, or while having it you are a workhorse ruthlessly lashed to sponsor and support everyone from "poor underprivileged" to rich unwilling to pay their share, and entire legion of people in-between with more or less social and retirement priviledges. Europe killed employment.
- Varelion 3mo agoBeyond clear the latter is far more at fault than the former.
- antonymoose 3mo ago[flagged]
- inigyou 3mo agoGovernments have tools they can use to make this spiral go up or down. The current direction and velocity of the spiral are policy choices. The most basic one would be the interest rate (not available to Italy because of the Eurozone)
- FromHoiPolloi 3mo agoWhat other tools are there available? I believe increasing minimum wage, punishing (through tax) rent seeking would also be viable.
- inigyou 3mo agoIncreasing minimum wage only works if employer surplus is already high. But you can put various controls on rent and building, and you can encourage local production.
- TuringNYC 3mo agoI talk to a lot of people in the Metro NY area. One problem here is -- if you need to commute into Manhattan (job center) -- it demands a certain salary, below which commuting in is a net-loss. Rent is $2000/mo. If you have a family and cannot have multiple roommates, you might be looking at $4000/mo. "if you cannot afford it, stop complainingb and live elsehwere" they say...sure...but a commuter train into Manhattan can run you $30-50/day. Add in parking at the commuter train station and you're down about $60 or more a day. Now suppose you eke out some net saving -- you've unqualified yourself from medicaid health insurance now. Your net savings may not even pay for your medical deductible. There are a lot of reasons to just not bother unless the salary can get beyond all these hurdles.
- thegrim33 3mo agoYour theory is that some people don't find it financially worthwhile to work in NYC, so therefore they decide to just give up and not work and not move anywhere else and just do absolutely nothing instead?
- washadjeffmad 3mo agoIn an economy where someone staying home to care for children or elderly parents can easily save $40-60k, I'd believe it. Homemakers aren't doing nothing, they're just not represented.
- sleepybrett 3mo agoYou have to work where the jobs are. Where the jobs are is expensive as fuck, AI and the economy are driving down labor costs (both actual number of salaries and the cost of those individual salaries)... but rent and other living costs are only going up.
- TuringNYC 3mo agoNot only is that my theory but that is literally the article we’re all commenting on “labor participation down” and this is one explanation based on discussions with hundreds of friends and classmates struggling with this issue.
- fuzzfactor 3mo ago>the rate now stands at its lowest level since 1976. What makes the move even more striking is the abruptness of the change Nothing to see here, just another one of those things that hasn't happened since the Nixon Recession. Coincidentally at a time when government economists made adjustments to statistical reporting to also include stepwise offsets and discontinuities, specifically to "compensate" for a new paradigm that could not be ignored because of how much worse things would look if calculated the "old" way.