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His history of predictions about LLMs is not great and he generally seems ideologically committed to pretending they're almost useless and teetering on the edge
by no_multitudes 2mo ago
His history of predictions about LLMs is not great and he generally seems ideologically committed to pretending they're almost useless and teetering on the edge of collapse.
For example, this article claims:
"Every single story you’ve read about the “incredible growth” of these cloud platforms is an embarrassing misread of three companies that are misleading investors that will more than likely be forced in the next year or two to have to restate revenues, cut remaining performance obligations, and admit that they’ve drastically overbuilt capacity. "
In july 2024, Zitron wrote at length about how the economics of OpenAI were likely to collapse in the next 1 to 2 years [1].
It seems like the nearly inevitable collapse of generative AI is always 1 to 2 years away, but it's just the details of the intricate financial argument that change.
[1]: https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman/
- an0malous 2mo agoHe said: > I am hypothesizing that for OpenAI to survive for longer than two years, it will have to (in no particular order): And listed various things like a technological breakthrough or more fundraising. I would bet he’s right that they’ll fundraise by the end of the year if they can’t IPO and pass the bag to retail investors. What the AI bulls don’t seem to understand is that AI could be a great technological achievement AND an impending economic collapse because the valuations of these companies are absurd, basically requiring them to fulfill 10% of the country’s GDP within the next couple years. The achievements are impressive but vastly outpaced by the mania.
- no_multitudes 2mo agoFor the record, I agree that the generative AI industry might collapse. But I think Ed Zitron is ideologically committed to this belief in a way that is not a reflection of the evidence, and doesn't seem to update this belief based on new evidence. >What the AI bulls don’t seem to understand is that AI could be a great technological achievement AND an impending economic collapse This doesn't seem to be Ed Zitron's position, though. He is always minimizing the use cases of AI, and seems to think virtually all of the demand is due to the technology industry manufacturing consent.
- dgellow 2mo agoThe fact there are use cases or not for AI is pretty much irrelevant to his overall points. You can disagree on that specific thing but the thesis regarding what is fueling the bubble is pretty well documented by now
- jackb4040 2mo agoThis is his position, he doesn't have time to say it on corporate media that give him 5 minutes but he starts basically every podcast with (paraphrasing) "LLMs are rightfully a boring several-hundred-million-dollar business that will be important in some industries like coding but the vast majority of the population won't care about".
- dwaltrip 2mo agoHe has admitted to being grotesquely wrong about LLMs being useful?
- no_multitudes 2mo agoI do not watch podcasts or news videos. I am basing my opinions on the content he writes in his free 5-10,000 word blog posts.
- pydry 2mo ago>In july 2024, Zitron wrote at length about how the economics of OpenAI were likely to collapse in the next 1 to 2 years [1]. One of my clearest memories of the first tech bubble was of a number of people who accurately identified that it WAS a bubble and then predicted it would go pop 12-18 months before it did. They attracted plenty of scorn and derision for being 80% right from people who were 100% wrong. Some also lost a bunch of money - short selling really explodes in your face if you time it badly. It's not enough to know that it is a bubble, you have to be able to know when market sentiment will finally turn which is a gigantic gamble.
- senderista 2mo ago"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of men" -- Isaac Newton
- jackb4040 2mo agoIs that the prediction they're claiming is "wrong"? The year's nowhere near out yet.
- pydry 2mo agowell, it is over 2 years since July 2024