3 ms·

When is it popping? Is the AI bubble in the room with us now?

by aurareturn 3mo ago

baalimago 3mo ago
Next month perpetually
amrit3128 3mo ago
Tomorrow? Next year? In 5 years? Nobody can say. But we do know that AI is overvalued, so it WILL pop.
- aurareturn 3mo ago
  Well, if no body can say when it will pop, then can we really say it's a bubble and it's overvalued? I can tell you it will pop in 10 years and when it pops, it will still be 20x bigger than in 2026. Does that even make any sense? People said AI bubble will pop soon in 2024 and that it was overvalued. Turns out, many AI stocks 10x, 20x since 2024. Actual usage has gone exponential as well. Anthropic revenue went from $100m ARR at start of 2024 to $80b ARR today.
  - Joel_Mckay 3mo ago
    Many are saying July 2027, as in the past these market corrections have correlated with Shrek movie releases. Debt-backed investors have to pay up eventually. =3
  - ekidd 3mo ago
    > Well, if no body can say when it will pop, then can we really say it's a bubble and it's overvalued? Well, given the literal trillions being spent, the only ways this pays off are: 1. AI replaces a non-trivial fraction of human employees. 2. Someone builds a Culture Mind, and humans become (hopefully) pampered pets of AIs we don't understand. Seems unlikely, but it would arguably count as a payoff even if it made money meaningless. Or maybe the AIs don't want pets, and you get SkyNet. Which definitely doesn't care about paying off anyone's investments. When you look at various news articles about investors, yeah, there are definitely a lot of rich people who think that they're going to automate all human labor or just bring about the Singularity. Possibly with them in charge of the rest of us. If you don't make these kinds of wild assumptions, then yeah, this is looking like one of the biggest bubbles ever.
    - aurareturn 3mo ago
      Can we see some actual numbers, projections, models instead of vibes?
      - atwrk 3mo ago
        Debt is at $3 trillion right now: https://fortune.com/2026/07/31/ai-debt-hypescalers-capex-capital-spending-hidden-borrowing-bond-issuance/ https://fortune.com/2026/07/31/ai-debt-hypescalers-capex-cap... Interest alone, at assumed 5%, amounts to about $150 billions per year. That's probably higher than the combined AI revenue of the top 3 providers.
        aurareturn 3mo ago
        Did you read your own article? It's well less than $3 trillion. Now let's build the model out more. What is the projected revenue, backlog, improvements in existing big tech businesses such as AI helping Meta's ad business?
        atwrk 3mo ago
        Did you read beyond the headline? It's 1.65 trillion hidden and 1.35 trillion overt - which sums up to 3 trillion.
        aurareturn 3mo ago
        Ok, so they're using footnotes. Can you now analyze backlog? For example, Microsoft and Amazon have backlogs of $1.45 trillion. Not including Google, Oracle, Meta.
      - qwytw 3mo ago
        That's what you should ask the companies spending massive amounts of money on AI though?
    - CamperBob2 3mo ago
      1. AI replaces a non-trivial fraction of human employees. I mean, it's pretty clear that's going to happen. How could it not? The only question is whether resources are optimally allocated at the moment to prepare for this. That seems unlikely at best. So yes, there is probably a bubble, and if so, then yes, it will pop, and then life will go on, with resources better allocated. Just like when the dot-com bubble popped.
slaw 3mo ago
The AI bubble will pop when China gets access to EUV, so the earliest it could happen is 2030
dghlsakjg 3mo ago
Nvidia has ever so slightly underperformed the SP500 YTD (at the exact time this comment is being typed), so its basically the apocalypse already.

When is it popping? Is the AI bubble in the room with us now?

baalimago 3mo ago

Next month perpetually

amrit3128 3mo ago

Tomorrow? Next year? In 5 years? Nobody can say. But we do know that AI is overvalued, so it WILL pop.

aurareturn 3mo ago
Well, if no body can say when it will pop, then can we really say it's a bubble and it's overvalued? I can tell you it will pop in 10 years and when it pops, it will still be 20x bigger than in 2026. Does that even make any sense? People said AI bubble will pop soon in 2024 and that it was overvalued. Turns out, many AI stocks 10x, 20x since 2024. Actual usage has gone exponential as well. Anthropic revenue went from $100m ARR at start of 2024 to $80b ARR today.
- Joel_Mckay 3mo ago
  Many are saying July 2027, as in the past these market corrections have correlated with Shrek movie releases. Debt-backed investors have to pay up eventually. =3
- ekidd 3mo ago
  > Well, if no body can say when it will pop, then can we really say it's a bubble and it's overvalued? Well, given the literal trillions being spent, the only ways this pays off are: 1. AI replaces a non-trivial fraction of human employees. 2. Someone builds a Culture Mind, and humans become (hopefully) pampered pets of AIs we don't understand. Seems unlikely, but it would arguably count as a payoff even if it made money meaningless. Or maybe the AIs don't want pets, and you get SkyNet. Which definitely doesn't care about paying off anyone's investments. When you look at various news articles about investors, yeah, there are definitely a lot of rich people who think that they're going to automate all human labor or just bring about the Singularity. Possibly with them in charge of the rest of us. If you don't make these kinds of wild assumptions, then yeah, this is looking like one of the biggest bubbles ever.
  - aurareturn 3mo ago
    Can we see some actual numbers, projections, models instead of vibes?
    - atwrk 3mo ago
      Debt is at $3 trillion right now: https://fortune.com/2026/07/31/ai-debt-hypescalers-capex-capital-spending-hidden-borrowing-bond-issuance/ https://fortune.com/2026/07/31/ai-debt-hypescalers-capex-cap... Interest alone, at assumed 5%, amounts to about $150 billions per year. That's probably higher than the combined AI revenue of the top 3 providers.
      - aurareturn 3mo ago
        Did you read your own article? It's well less than $3 trillion. Now let's build the model out more. What is the projected revenue, backlog, improvements in existing big tech businesses such as AI helping Meta's ad business?
        atwrk 3mo ago
        Did you read beyond the headline? It's 1.65 trillion hidden and 1.35 trillion overt - which sums up to 3 trillion.
        aurareturn 3mo ago
        Ok, so they're using footnotes. Can you now analyze backlog? For example, Microsoft and Amazon have backlogs of $1.45 trillion. Not including Google, Oracle, Meta.
    - qwytw 3mo ago
      That's what you should ask the companies spending massive amounts of money on AI though?
  - CamperBob2 3mo ago
    1. AI replaces a non-trivial fraction of human employees. I mean, it's pretty clear that's going to happen. How could it not? The only question is whether resources are optimally allocated at the moment to prepare for this. That seems unlikely at best. So yes, there is probably a bubble, and if so, then yes, it will pop, and then life will go on, with resources better allocated. Just like when the dot-com bubble popped.

slaw 3mo ago

The AI bubble will pop when China gets access to EUV, so the earliest it could happen is 2030

dghlsakjg 3mo ago

Nvidia has ever so slightly underperformed the SP500 YTD (at the exact time this comment is being typed), so its basically the apocalypse already.