the first lesson here is that betting is easy when you believe that you know the important variable, your edge. the second lesson is that, no matter how poorly

the first lesson here is that betting is easy when you believe that you know the important variable, your edge. the second lesson is that, no matter how poorly you perform, you are going to be able to make the case to your stakeholders that, contrary to all evidence, you do in fact have an edge and you are in fact exploiting it correctly. the lesson not here is that, in practice, continuing to believe that you know your edge is going to be virtually impossible in the long run, partly because of volatility, but mostly because, in practice, you do not know it.