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Right - black swans are by definition things that the majority didn't see coming. Ever since the 2008 housing crisis, people have been predicting the next bubb

Right - black swans are by definition things that the majority didn't see coming. Ever since the 2008 housing crisis, people have been predicting the next bubble-burst/black-swan event. The one that really crushed the markets was the one almost body saw coming: Covid-19.

kube-system 2mo ago
Not every crash is due to a black-swan event. Many crashes are due to causes with predictable reasons, but unpredictable timing.
- rybosworld 2mo ago
  You have any examples? Because all of the biggest and most famous crashes were events that only a very small minority of people ever saw coming. Tulips, 1929, Dotcom, Great Recession, 2010's Flash Crash - none of these were in the public discussion before they happened.
  - axus 2mo ago
    2008 financial crisis, after years of "mortgage bros" inflating that bubble.
    - rybosworld 2mo ago
      That's the great recession
    - prewett 2mo ago
      (somewhat tangential) We've got too much subtle deception going on, let's call it what it was: the Panic of '08. Because there was definitely some panic going on. Solvent companies like GE were days away from bankruptcy because they couldn't get a routine short-term loan for payroll.
  - kube-system 2mo ago
    > 1929, Dotcom, Great Recession, 2010's Flash Crash - none of these were in the public discussion before they happened. The "public discussion" is a whole different thing. They weren't in the public discussion because macroeconomic theory isn't something mom and pop like to chat about on the weekend. They only become dinner-table discussion topics when the impacts hit main street, after they happen. But bubbles in recent history have been pretty reliably identified beforehand: https://web.archive.org/web/20180330001927/https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB953335580704470544 https://web.archive.org/web/20180330001927/https://www.barro... https://www.economist.com/special-report/2005/06/16/in-come-the-waves https://www.economist.com/special-report/2005/06/16/in-come-... It isn't hard for economists to find bubbles, where the market is taking on high levels of risk. What is downright near impossible to do is predict what specific event will cause the dominos to begin dropping, or when it will happen.
    - rybosworld 2mo ago
      Right - my point is that if everyone is talking about it, then it isn't a bubble that's waiting to be popped. Anecdotally, I have family who don't follow the stock market at all and are talking about the "AI Bubble" that's about to pop.
      - kube-system 2mo ago
        People in the early 2000s were talking about crazy housing prices.
  - gloryjulio 2mo ago
    Michael Burry almost got wipe out if the bubble last just a bit longer. He started shorting way before the crash. He was lucky that he held long enough. There are many others see the same thing but just lost right before the end of the race. That's why timing the crash is hard. The market has to agree with you but also at the right time
  - runarberg 2mo ago
    I was there for the Great Recession, and they were indeed in the public discussion. I remember the year 2007, as a 20 year old anti-capitalist, I was counting days until the economic crash. As predicted by plenty of left-wing economists at the time. The only people who didn’t see it coming were the capitalists who were invested in the inflated market, and had bought into pseudo-scientific economic theories that served the single purpose of affirming what the capitalists already believed.
    - rybosworld 2mo ago
      I was too - and to be frank: it's dishonestly revisionist to say this was a topic in the public eye. There's a very good reason a book (and movie) like The Big Short was such a big hit. It's because it was about the handful of people who actually saw the crash coming and were confident enough to put their money and reputation on the line.
      - runarberg 2mo ago
        The entire left wing of the political spectrum saw this coming (except social democrats; whom I don’t consider left wing). And if you were shorting stocks to make money of off this, you probably were not left wing. Additionally, left wing economists get plenty of ridicule from main stream capitalists no matter what they say, so there really is no reputation to either earn nor to keep.
        rybosworld 2mo ago
        > The entire left wing of the political spectrum saw this coming Feel free to cite at least one reputable source.
        runarberg 2mo ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Portes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Portes
mjcarden 2mo ago
A lot of swans live here in the Australian Capital Territory. They seem to like our lakes. I have only ever seen black ones.

kube-system 2mo ago

Not every crash is due to a black-swan event. Many crashes are due to causes with predictable reasons, but unpredictable timing.

rybosworld 2mo ago
You have any examples? Because all of the biggest and most famous crashes were events that only a very small minority of people ever saw coming. Tulips, 1929, Dotcom, Great Recession, 2010's Flash Crash - none of these were in the public discussion before they happened.
- axus 2mo ago
  2008 financial crisis, after years of "mortgage bros" inflating that bubble.
  - rybosworld 2mo ago
    That's the great recession
  - prewett 2mo ago
    (somewhat tangential) We've got too much subtle deception going on, let's call it what it was: the Panic of '08. Because there was definitely some panic going on. Solvent companies like GE were days away from bankruptcy because they couldn't get a routine short-term loan for payroll.
- kube-system 2mo ago
  > 1929, Dotcom, Great Recession, 2010's Flash Crash - none of these were in the public discussion before they happened. The "public discussion" is a whole different thing. They weren't in the public discussion because macroeconomic theory isn't something mom and pop like to chat about on the weekend. They only become dinner-table discussion topics when the impacts hit main street, after they happen. But bubbles in recent history have been pretty reliably identified beforehand: https://web.archive.org/web/20180330001927/https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB953335580704470544 https://web.archive.org/web/20180330001927/https://www.barro... https://www.economist.com/special-report/2005/06/16/in-come-the-waves https://www.economist.com/special-report/2005/06/16/in-come-... It isn't hard for economists to find bubbles, where the market is taking on high levels of risk. What is downright near impossible to do is predict what specific event will cause the dominos to begin dropping, or when it will happen.
  - rybosworld 2mo ago
    Right - my point is that if everyone is talking about it, then it isn't a bubble that's waiting to be popped. Anecdotally, I have family who don't follow the stock market at all and are talking about the "AI Bubble" that's about to pop.
    - kube-system 2mo ago
      People in the early 2000s were talking about crazy housing prices.
- gloryjulio 2mo ago
  Michael Burry almost got wipe out if the bubble last just a bit longer. He started shorting way before the crash. He was lucky that he held long enough. There are many others see the same thing but just lost right before the end of the race. That's why timing the crash is hard. The market has to agree with you but also at the right time
- runarberg 2mo ago
  I was there for the Great Recession, and they were indeed in the public discussion. I remember the year 2007, as a 20 year old anti-capitalist, I was counting days until the economic crash. As predicted by plenty of left-wing economists at the time. The only people who didn’t see it coming were the capitalists who were invested in the inflated market, and had bought into pseudo-scientific economic theories that served the single purpose of affirming what the capitalists already believed.
  - rybosworld 2mo ago
    I was too - and to be frank: it's dishonestly revisionist to say this was a topic in the public eye. There's a very good reason a book (and movie) like The Big Short was such a big hit. It's because it was about the handful of people who actually saw the crash coming and were confident enough to put their money and reputation on the line.
    - runarberg 2mo ago
      The entire left wing of the political spectrum saw this coming (except social democrats; whom I don’t consider left wing). And if you were shorting stocks to make money of off this, you probably were not left wing. Additionally, left wing economists get plenty of ridicule from main stream capitalists no matter what they say, so there really is no reputation to either earn nor to keep.
      - rybosworld 2mo ago
        > The entire left wing of the political spectrum saw this coming Feel free to cite at least one reputable source.
        runarberg 2mo ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Portes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Portes

mjcarden 2mo ago

A lot of swans live here in the Australian Capital Territory. They seem to like our lakes. I have only ever seen black ones.