5 ms·
When we are talking about countries, what matters is the political decisions, not the technical details imo.
by freehorse 3mo ago
When we are talking about countries, what matters is the political decisions, not the technical details imo.
- RandomLensman 3mo agoWhat German political decision back then do you mean that cut off supply via NS1?
- freehorse 3mo agoPolitical decisions that lead to that point and geopolitical situation. The russians cut the gas on their terms because it would have happened anyway and they were not stupid. Then somebody else blew the pipe up and the whole discussion conveniently ended. The divestment from russian economy and blocking imports was already established, but germany and others could not phase out the gas that fast.
- RandomLensman 3mo agoStill, when did Germany cut off Russian gas back then? I don't think there is particular complexity in the sequence of events back then. Germany back then was not seeking an end to supplies then and there, if I recall correctly.
- uecker 3mo agoBut it did exactly this. The pipeline was not the only way to import Russian gas.
- RandomLensman 3mo agoWhat exactly did Germany do when? You mean after a huge supply cut by Russia, Germany moved to reduce/end use of Russian gas?
- uecker 3mo agoRussia did not completely cut gas exports to Europa, but reduced in substantially, but this was a reaction to sanctions and the decision in Europa to reduce imports from Russia (but more slowly). In fact, Russia still exports to countries in Europa (to be ended in 2027), but Germany stopped gas imports from Russia in September 2022. So the order of things was that Germany decided to reduce imports from Russia, Russian then gradually reduced and then stopped exporting via pipelines to Germany, and Germany then started to import LNT gas as a replacement but - in contrast to others - not from Russia.
- bluGill 3mo agoThe German political decision to not join with Russia and invade Ukraine (via Poland?). Just because it was the right decision doesn't mean there are not downsides.
- RandomLensman 3mo agoAccepting potential consequences is not the same as oneself cutting things off. Germany did not seek to end supplies then and there. Edit: there was never any chance of Germany invading Ukraine then/joining Russia on any invasion.
- bluGill 3mo agoIt doesn't matter what they wanted to do. What matters is what happened. As a result of their actions they got cut off. If Germany had invaded Ukraine (via Poland?) the gas might still be on. Of course we don't know that because other countries would likely take offense to that action and I'm not willing to predict how the world would change if they had. (I can't even imagine change would cause them to be willing to invade in the first place, much less how everyone else would respond.) Politics often are about the unintended consequences. Often they are also unforeseen.
- RandomLensman 3mo agoGermany joining the Russian invasion was never anything even remotely in the option space at all - utterly inconceivable in 2022. (Not aware of Russia seeking any such support there either.)
- bluGill 3mo agoI think it is clear to everybody that wasn't an possible option. There are consequences for it that though.
- RandomLensman 3mo ago