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Germany cut off Russian gas? Gazprom suspended supply indefinitely via NS1 before it was destroyed.

by RandomLensman 2mo ago

freehorse 2mo ago
When we are talking about countries, what matters is the political decisions, not the technical details imo.
- RandomLensman 2mo ago
  What German political decision back then do you mean that cut off supply via NS1?
  - freehorse 2mo ago
    Political decisions that lead to that point and geopolitical situation. The russians cut the gas on their terms because it would have happened anyway and they were not stupid. Then somebody else blew the pipe up and the whole discussion conveniently ended. The divestment from russian economy and blocking imports was already established, but germany and others could not phase out the gas that fast.
    - RandomLensman 2mo ago
      Still, when did Germany cut off Russian gas back then? I don't think there is particular complexity in the sequence of events back then. Germany back then was not seeking an end to supplies then and there, if I recall correctly.
      - uecker 2mo ago
        But it did exactly this. The pipeline was not the only way to import Russian gas.
        RandomLensman 2mo ago
        What exactly did Germany do when? You mean after a huge supply cut by Russia, Germany moved to reduce/end use of Russian gas?
        uecker 2mo ago
        Russia did not completely cut gas exports to Europa, but reduced in substantially, but this was a reaction to sanctions and the decision in Europa to reduce imports from Russia (but more slowly). In fact, Russia still exports to countries in Europa (to be ended in 2027), but Germany stopped gas imports from Russia in September 2022. So the order of things was that Germany decided to reduce imports from Russia, Russian then gradually reduced and then stopped exporting via pipelines to Germany, and Germany then started to import LNT gas as a replacement but - in contrast to others - not from Russia.
  - bluGill 2mo ago
    The German political decision to not join with Russia and invade Ukraine (via Poland?). Just because it was the right decision doesn't mean there are not downsides.
    - RandomLensman 2mo ago
      Accepting potential consequences is not the same as oneself cutting things off. Germany did not seek to end supplies then and there. Edit: there was never any chance of Germany invading Ukraine then/joining Russia on any invasion.
      - bluGill 2mo ago
        It doesn't matter what they wanted to do. What matters is what happened. As a result of their actions they got cut off. If Germany had invaded Ukraine (via Poland?) the gas might still be on. Of course we don't know that because other countries would likely take offense to that action and I'm not willing to predict how the world would change if they had. (I can't even imagine change would cause them to be willing to invade in the first place, much less how everyone else would respond.) Politics often are about the unintended consequences. Often they are also unforeseen.
        RandomLensman 2mo ago
        Germany joining the Russian invasion was never anything even remotely in the option space at all - utterly inconceivable in 2022. (Not aware of Russia seeking any such support there either.)
        bluGill 2mo ago
        I think it is clear to everybody that wasn't an possible option. There are consequences for it that though.
        RandomLensman 2mo ago
pydry 2mo ago
Canada sanctioned the repaired gas turbines needed to operate NS1. They flip flopped on their decision some time later though. This was spun as a Russian decision, but western countries were clearly trying to force Germany's hand.
- RandomLensman 2mo ago
  I don't think the turbine that was serviced in Canada was causal there. The turbine thing was earlier, as far as I recall it. Gazprom announced its decision in early Sep 2022, btw.
- stefan_ 2mo ago
  And then Russia refused to install the turbine, proving it was a ploy all along. Like the maintenance in the first place. Which is why they acquired gas storage in Germany, then ran it low timed with their illegal war of aggression. This is a theme of course; Russia invented another gas crisis every few years with Ukraine. It should have been a warning sign when they settled them by taking payment in the form of Soviet-era cruise missiles. The gas was never cheap, either; apart from the money spent now to restrain the military buildup and invasion it financed, even at the height of supplies it was much higher price than China is paying, a price sustained by Russia using military force and more to restrain other (Asian) countries from supplying to Europe. (This was obvious to everyone, right? A single majority supplier nation state charging a cheap price out of the kindness of their heart? No, of course not; neither cheap nor kind. It was a monopoly, built on blood.)
  - pydry 2mo ago
    They installed it and then they took the pipeline down for planned maintenance. it's a little rich to accuse them of playing games with gas after the stunt Canada pulled and most especially after a western partner subsequently blew up the pipeline and blamed it on Russia. Clearly certain western allies decided that Germany couldnt be trusted to make its own decisions about where Germany gets its energy.
    - 2mo ago
goobatrooba 2mo ago
Markets are now committed than a single pipeline. Germany was importing most gas through other channels - pipelines through Eastern and Southern Europe and shipping - as well as of course plenty of oil. While the NortStream cut had a significant short term impact it took much more effort to wean the country off all the other routes.
- RandomLensman 2mo ago
  NS1 had like 30% of German gas imports (Russia in total around 50%).
1239176 2mo ago
That is a half truth. A turbine was broken, repaired in Canada, which required a lot of bureaucracy. Then the turbine was shipped to Germany. Then the Russians started their own bureaucracy and came up with excuses why the turbine could not be installed. During that time Nord Stream was blown up. The point is moot, since Putin has offered multiple times to open the remaining intact pipe: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-urges-germany-make-decision-buying-russian-gas-again-via-nord-stream-2026-06-04/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-urges-germany-... And the broken pipes can be repaired, as was determined in the LLoyds lawsuit recently. I'm not saying that reopening would be reliable, but it would be one diversification away from US and Qatar dependencies. The US just cut the EU off from Qatar gas.

Germany cut off Russian gas? Gazprom suspended supply indefinitely via NS1 before it was destroyed.

freehorse 2mo ago

When we are talking about countries, what matters is the political decisions, not the technical details imo.

RandomLensman 2mo ago
What German political decision back then do you mean that cut off supply via NS1?
- freehorse 2mo ago
  Political decisions that lead to that point and geopolitical situation. The russians cut the gas on their terms because it would have happened anyway and they were not stupid. Then somebody else blew the pipe up and the whole discussion conveniently ended. The divestment from russian economy and blocking imports was already established, but germany and others could not phase out the gas that fast.
  - RandomLensman 2mo ago
    Still, when did Germany cut off Russian gas back then? I don't think there is particular complexity in the sequence of events back then. Germany back then was not seeking an end to supplies then and there, if I recall correctly.
    - uecker 2mo ago
      But it did exactly this. The pipeline was not the only way to import Russian gas.
      - RandomLensman 2mo ago
        What exactly did Germany do when? You mean after a huge supply cut by Russia, Germany moved to reduce/end use of Russian gas?
        uecker 2mo ago
        Russia did not completely cut gas exports to Europa, but reduced in substantially, but this was a reaction to sanctions and the decision in Europa to reduce imports from Russia (but more slowly). In fact, Russia still exports to countries in Europa (to be ended in 2027), but Germany stopped gas imports from Russia in September 2022. So the order of things was that Germany decided to reduce imports from Russia, Russian then gradually reduced and then stopped exporting via pipelines to Germany, and Germany then started to import LNT gas as a replacement but - in contrast to others - not from Russia.
- bluGill 2mo ago
  The German political decision to not join with Russia and invade Ukraine (via Poland?). Just because it was the right decision doesn't mean there are not downsides.
  - RandomLensman 2mo ago
    Accepting potential consequences is not the same as oneself cutting things off. Germany did not seek to end supplies then and there. Edit: there was never any chance of Germany invading Ukraine then/joining Russia on any invasion.
    - bluGill 2mo ago
      It doesn't matter what they wanted to do. What matters is what happened. As a result of their actions they got cut off. If Germany had invaded Ukraine (via Poland?) the gas might still be on. Of course we don't know that because other countries would likely take offense to that action and I'm not willing to predict how the world would change if they had. (I can't even imagine change would cause them to be willing to invade in the first place, much less how everyone else would respond.) Politics often are about the unintended consequences. Often they are also unforeseen.
      - RandomLensman 2mo ago
        Germany joining the Russian invasion was never anything even remotely in the option space at all - utterly inconceivable in 2022. (Not aware of Russia seeking any such support there either.)
        bluGill 2mo ago
        I think it is clear to everybody that wasn't an possible option. There are consequences for it that though.
        RandomLensman 2mo ago

pydry 2mo ago

Canada sanctioned the repaired gas turbines needed to operate NS1. They flip flopped on their decision some time later though. This was spun as a Russian decision, but western countries were clearly trying to force Germany's hand.

RandomLensman 2mo ago
I don't think the turbine that was serviced in Canada was causal there. The turbine thing was earlier, as far as I recall it. Gazprom announced its decision in early Sep 2022, btw.
stefan_ 2mo ago
And then Russia refused to install the turbine, proving it was a ploy all along. Like the maintenance in the first place. Which is why they acquired gas storage in Germany, then ran it low timed with their illegal war of aggression. This is a theme of course; Russia invented another gas crisis every few years with Ukraine. It should have been a warning sign when they settled them by taking payment in the form of Soviet-era cruise missiles. The gas was never cheap, either; apart from the money spent now to restrain the military buildup and invasion it financed, even at the height of supplies it was much higher price than China is paying, a price sustained by Russia using military force and more to restrain other (Asian) countries from supplying to Europe. (This was obvious to everyone, right? A single majority supplier nation state charging a cheap price out of the kindness of their heart? No, of course not; neither cheap nor kind. It was a monopoly, built on blood.)
- pydry 2mo ago
  They installed it and then they took the pipeline down for planned maintenance. it's a little rich to accuse them of playing games with gas after the stunt Canada pulled and most especially after a western partner subsequently blew up the pipeline and blamed it on Russia. Clearly certain western allies decided that Germany couldnt be trusted to make its own decisions about where Germany gets its energy.
  - 2mo ago

goobatrooba 2mo ago

Markets are now committed than a single pipeline. Germany was importing most gas through other channels - pipelines through Eastern and Southern Europe and shipping - as well as of course plenty of oil. While the NortStream cut had a significant short term impact it took much more effort to wean the country off all the other routes.

RandomLensman 2mo ago
NS1 had like 30% of German gas imports (Russia in total around 50%).

1239176 2mo ago

That is a half truth. A turbine was broken, repaired in Canada, which required a lot of bureaucracy. Then the turbine was shipped to Germany. Then the Russians started their own bureaucracy and came up with excuses why the turbine could not be installed. During that time Nord Stream was blown up. The point is moot, since Putin has offered multiple times to open the remaining intact pipe: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-urges-germany-make-decision-buying-russian-gas-again-via-nord-stream-2026-06-04/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-urges-germany-... And the broken pipes can be repaired, as was determined in the LLoyds lawsuit recently. I'm not saying that reopening would be reliable, but it would be one diversification away from US and Qatar dependencies. The US just cut the EU off from Qatar gas.