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TSLA's 400 PE ratio (along with Elon Musk's trillionaire status) was never sustainable. Where I disagree is with companies running market average PE ratios supp

TSLA's 400 PE ratio (along with Elon Musk's trillionaire status) was never sustainable. Where I disagree is with companies running market average PE ratios supposedly being doomed as well. But also, don't count out OpenAI and Anthropic, no matter how shaky the numbers. The market has also demonstrated how to price SPCX so if they IPO, they will see their true FMV and I'm sure it's >0 and much much less than what they believe. For even in the worst case scenarios, they have valuable personnel, experience, and IP deploying AI at scale for what is to come, even if it's based on Chinese open weight models. RIP lightcone of all future value though. As for the hyperscalers embedded in FAANNG, they've been using profitable divisions to cover the expense of growing but unprofitable divisions for a while now. In fact, that's business as usual. They're all going to land on their feet with PE ratios of ~20 or higher. Now take your favorite tech stock you prefer to scapegoat and figure out its approximate bottom relative to today. You'll be glad you did.

palmotea 2mo ago
> But also, don't count out OpenAI and Anthropic, no matter how shaky the numbers. The market has also demonstrated how to price SPCX so if they IPO, they will see their free market FMV and I'm sure it's >0 and much much less than what they believe. For even in the worst case scenarios, they have valuable personnel, experience, and IP deploying AI at scale for what is to come, even if it's based on Chinese open weight models. RIP lightcone of all future value though. You know what I'd like to see? OpenAI going bankrupt, wiping out its investors, then being bought up by IBM for a nickel. Ditto with Anthropic, but ending up with Oracle (if it's still around after running up so much debt).
- LogicFailsMe 2mo ago
  The karmic Schadenfreude of those outcomes would be delicious. And while Sam Altman has long been out as a lucky fool, until recently, I thought more of Dario Amodei. Not anymore.
- xnx 2mo ago
  I think it is very likely that OpenAI stop operating as an independent entity, but more likely that Microsoft would get full control.

palmotea 2mo ago

> But also, don't count out OpenAI and Anthropic, no matter how shaky the numbers. The market has also demonstrated how to price SPCX so if they IPO, they will see their free market FMV and I'm sure it's >0 and much much less than what they believe. For even in the worst case scenarios, they have valuable personnel, experience, and IP deploying AI at scale for what is to come, even if it's based on Chinese open weight models. RIP lightcone of all future value though. You know what I'd like to see? OpenAI going bankrupt, wiping out its investors, then being bought up by IBM for a nickel. Ditto with Anthropic, but ending up with Oracle (if it's still around after running up so much debt).

LogicFailsMe 2mo ago
The karmic Schadenfreude of those outcomes would be delicious. And while Sam Altman has long been out as a lucky fool, until recently, I thought more of Dario Amodei. Not anymore.
xnx 2mo ago
I think it is very likely that OpenAI stop operating as an independent entity, but more likely that Microsoft would get full control.