3 ms·

It's holding up the entire US stock market and therefore the entire US economy and the dollar value. You probably don't want this particular Atlas to shrug.

by inigyou 3mo ago

delfinom 3mo ago
It's inevitable though. The funny-money has outpaced actual money by lightyears at this point. On the plus side, our interest rates aren't 0% right now, so there's some room there. On the down side, our national debt generation now exceeds 125% of GDP and bond rates are shooting up because nobody wants to buy our debt.
- LogicFailsMe 3mo ago
  This guy makes a decent argument that the funny money party doesn't really get started until Q3 2027. To which I would respond probably, but also probably not if another coding agent sized market opens up between now and then. But predicting the future is hard and all that. https://overweightskepticism.substack.com/p/ais-cash-cushion-runs-out-around https://overweightskepticism.substack.com/p/ais-cash-cushion...
theideaofcoffee 3mo ago
I do. The faster it happens, the faster a recovery begins and we can devote resources back to doing more practical things. Get it over with as soon as possible, rip the bandaid off, insert your idiom of choice.
- inigyou 3mo ago
  Have you converted all your dollars to other currencies and non-financial assets?
  - soco 3mo ago
    But what is the point of this discussion? That we deny a possible burst because we stand to lose personally? Or is it, we believe it could burst because reasons?
Waterluvian 3mo ago
You can’t threaten me with two good times. Long term that would help correct the overemphasis on the U.S. economy and AI.
cmiles8 3mo ago
The “Let it burn” attitude doesn’t mean people think they are immune. Yes the overall market will take a hit but, like a forest fire we need a healthy burn to just wipe out the weaker players so the older more mature trees can get on with it. Yes the big trees will get burned a bit but they’ll be fine in the long run. We need a good brush fire to just wipe out all the iffy startups and investors that over-indexed here. Thats what people want with “let it burn.”
DanTheManPR 3mo ago
I would rather be market-corrected out of a job for a few weeks or months than have this inflate into an economy-wrecking bubble that derails my career and life for years. I'm worried that we're at that state already...
- spwa4 3mo ago
  The thing about the past is that it's the past. Things change, big changes do not bring back the past. They change things. If you are market-corrected out of a job that situation most software engineers will be out of a job for years and wages will not recover for decades, or just never.
  - inigyou 3mo ago
    The trajectory of feudalism has always bent towards low wages and high rent extraction. There is no possible future where we stay with feudalism but increase wages.
    - spwa4 3mo ago
      Let's see ... feudalism started with slave labour (which is what muslims are still fighting for, fighting to bring it back), there were many bills of rights. Feudalism more or less started with Christianity forcibly implementing the right to quit your job, any job, including slavery, and ended with equality for all. So: nope. Quite the opposite. Feudalism was a very slow increase in rights for normal people over time.
LogicFailsMe 3mo ago
TSLA's 400 PE ratio (along with Elon Musk's trillionaire status) was never sustainable. Where I disagree is with companies running market average PE ratios supposedly being doomed as well. But also, don't count out OpenAI and Anthropic, no matter how shaky the numbers. The market has also demonstrated how to price SPCX so if they IPO, they will see their true FMV and I'm sure it's >0 and much much less than what they believe. For even in the worst case scenarios, they have valuable personnel, experience, and IP deploying AI at scale for what is to come, even if it's based on Chinese open weight models. RIP lightcone of all future value though. As for the hyperscalers embedded in FAANNG, they've been using profitable divisions to cover the expense of growing but unprofitable divisions for a while now. In fact, that's business as usual. They're all going to land on their feet with PE ratios of ~20 or higher. Now take your favorite tech stock you prefer to scapegoat and figure out its approximate bottom relative to today. You'll be glad you did.
- palmotea 3mo ago
  > But also, don't count out OpenAI and Anthropic, no matter how shaky the numbers. The market has also demonstrated how to price SPCX so if they IPO, they will see their free market FMV and I'm sure it's >0 and much much less than what they believe. For even in the worst case scenarios, they have valuable personnel, experience, and IP deploying AI at scale for what is to come, even if it's based on Chinese open weight models. RIP lightcone of all future value though. You know what I'd like to see? OpenAI going bankrupt, wiping out its investors, then being bought up by IBM for a nickel. Ditto with Anthropic, but ending up with Oracle (if it's still around after running up so much debt).
  - LogicFailsMe 3mo ago
    The karmic Schadenfreude of those outcomes would be delicious. And while Sam Altman has long been out as a lucky fool, until recently, I thought more of Dario Amodei. Not anymore.
  - xnx 3mo ago
    I think it is very likely that OpenAI stop operating as an independent entity, but more likely that Microsoft would get full control.
palmotea 3mo ago
> It's holding up the entire US stock market and therefore the entire US economy and the dollar value. You probably don't want this particular Atlas to shrug. So you're saying we want to keep this bubble going forever? If's it's a bubble, it's gonna pop, and better sooner than later.

It's holding up the entire US stock market and therefore the entire US economy and the dollar value. You probably don't want this particular Atlas to shrug.

by inigyou 3mo ago

It's holding up the entire US stock market and therefore the entire US economy and the dollar value. You probably don't want this particular Atlas to shrug.

delfinom 3mo ago

It's inevitable though. The funny-money has outpaced actual money by lightyears at this point. On the plus side, our interest rates aren't 0% right now, so there's some room there. On the down side, our national debt generation now exceeds 125% of GDP and bond rates are shooting up because nobody wants to buy our debt.

LogicFailsMe 3mo ago
This guy makes a decent argument that the funny money party doesn't really get started until Q3 2027. To which I would respond probably, but also probably not if another coding agent sized market opens up between now and then. But predicting the future is hard and all that. https://overweightskepticism.substack.com/p/ais-cash-cushion-runs-out-around https://overweightskepticism.substack.com/p/ais-cash-cushion...

theideaofcoffee 3mo ago

I do. The faster it happens, the faster a recovery begins and we can devote resources back to doing more practical things. Get it over with as soon as possible, rip the bandaid off, insert your idiom of choice.

inigyou 3mo ago
Have you converted all your dollars to other currencies and non-financial assets?
- soco 3mo ago
  But what is the point of this discussion? That we deny a possible burst because we stand to lose personally? Or is it, we believe it could burst because reasons?

Waterluvian 3mo ago

You can’t threaten me with two good times. Long term that would help correct the overemphasis on the U.S. economy and AI.

cmiles8 3mo ago

The “Let it burn” attitude doesn’t mean people think they are immune. Yes the overall market will take a hit but, like a forest fire we need a healthy burn to just wipe out the weaker players so the older more mature trees can get on with it. Yes the big trees will get burned a bit but they’ll be fine in the long run. We need a good brush fire to just wipe out all the iffy startups and investors that over-indexed here. Thats what people want with “let it burn.”

DanTheManPR 3mo ago

I would rather be market-corrected out of a job for a few weeks or months than have this inflate into an economy-wrecking bubble that derails my career and life for years. I'm worried that we're at that state already...

spwa4 3mo ago
The thing about the past is that it's the past. Things change, big changes do not bring back the past. They change things. If you are market-corrected out of a job that situation most software engineers will be out of a job for years and wages will not recover for decades, or just never.
- inigyou 3mo ago
  The trajectory of feudalism has always bent towards low wages and high rent extraction. There is no possible future where we stay with feudalism but increase wages.
  - spwa4 3mo ago
    Let's see ... feudalism started with slave labour (which is what muslims are still fighting for, fighting to bring it back), there were many bills of rights. Feudalism more or less started with Christianity forcibly implementing the right to quit your job, any job, including slavery, and ended with equality for all. So: nope. Quite the opposite. Feudalism was a very slow increase in rights for normal people over time.

LogicFailsMe 3mo ago

TSLA's 400 PE ratio (along with Elon Musk's trillionaire status) was never sustainable. Where I disagree is with companies running market average PE ratios supposedly being doomed as well. But also, don't count out OpenAI and Anthropic, no matter how shaky the numbers. The market has also demonstrated how to price SPCX so if they IPO, they will see their true FMV and I'm sure it's >0 and much much less than what they believe. For even in the worst case scenarios, they have valuable personnel, experience, and IP deploying AI at scale for what is to come, even if it's based on Chinese open weight models. RIP lightcone of all future value though. As for the hyperscalers embedded in FAANNG, they've been using profitable divisions to cover the expense of growing but unprofitable divisions for a while now. In fact, that's business as usual. They're all going to land on their feet with PE ratios of ~20 or higher. Now take your favorite tech stock you prefer to scapegoat and figure out its approximate bottom relative to today. You'll be glad you did.

palmotea 3mo ago
> But also, don't count out OpenAI and Anthropic, no matter how shaky the numbers. The market has also demonstrated how to price SPCX so if they IPO, they will see their free market FMV and I'm sure it's >0 and much much less than what they believe. For even in the worst case scenarios, they have valuable personnel, experience, and IP deploying AI at scale for what is to come, even if it's based on Chinese open weight models. RIP lightcone of all future value though. You know what I'd like to see? OpenAI going bankrupt, wiping out its investors, then being bought up by IBM for a nickel. Ditto with Anthropic, but ending up with Oracle (if it's still around after running up so much debt).
- LogicFailsMe 3mo ago
  The karmic Schadenfreude of those outcomes would be delicious. And while Sam Altman has long been out as a lucky fool, until recently, I thought more of Dario Amodei. Not anymore.
- xnx 3mo ago
  I think it is very likely that OpenAI stop operating as an independent entity, but more likely that Microsoft would get full control.

palmotea 3mo ago

> It's holding up the entire US stock market and therefore the entire US economy and the dollar value. You probably don't want this particular Atlas to shrug. So you're saying we want to keep this bubble going forever? If's it's a bubble, it's gonna pop, and better sooner than later.