3 ms·
well if bubble pops, everyone will die EXCEPT google UNLESS openAI/etc actually succeeds in making AGI that never hallucinates and goes over the current LLM li
by sysguest 2mo ago
well if bubble pops, everyone will die EXCEPT google
UNLESS openAI/etc actually succeeds in making AGI that never hallucinates and goes over the current LLM limitations
as for google... well they own the web
(+google has plenty of other revenue sources, so it can just pay out its AI survival)
if you're a website owner, would you welcome chatgpt/etc's data-collection bots?
but... as for google's bots... you need your website to be on the Google search results...
- bzzzt 2mo ago> well if bubble pops, everyone will die EXCEPT google Also, possible Apple since they haven't gone into deep debt to finance 'AI buildout'.
- gizajob 2mo agoThey’re also primed to capture the on-device AI market in 3-5 years time when a “good enough” model can run locally.
- brazzy 2mo agoDo they even have any direct exposure to the whole AI bubble? If not, I'd say they don't even count in the "everyone"-
- bzzzt 2mo agoTheir exposure could be net positive. If other companies fail they will still be around to pick up their customers.
- delfinom 2mo agoApple is also just partnering with Google. https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/company-announcements/joint-statement-google-apple/ https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/company-annou...
- tremon 2mo agoI expect Nvidia to survive the crash on its own, and everyone else except Softbank to be bailed out with US taxpayer money.
- thepasch 2mo agoNvidia has hordes of raucous gamers on the prowl waiting to tear their chips out of their hands the moment hyperscaler demand falters; plus, China has made sure there will always be plenty of open models to run for hobbyists and neoclouds, even if training compute were to drop off a cliff. They'll be just fine.
- ff10 2mo agoI want to see the number of gamers that tear the chips from the dead hands of hyperscalers to make up for the implosion of that market. If I had to guess, half of humanity does not have interest in dedicated gaming chips. Memory, that's another story.
- mschild 2mo agoThe gpus will be too expensive and a lot of them are not even close to useable for gaming. Any consumer gpus maybe but I suspect that nvidia will be able to pivot more quickly producing consumer gpus again.
- delecti 2mo agoThe market for video game hardware is absolutely puny in comparison to the datacenter GPU boom. I saw it put quite well in a comment on reddit: > In 2020, the gaming segment was 47% of revenue at around 8 billion. Today it's doubled to 16 billion, or 7% of revenue. That's right, data center went from 6 billion 2020 to around 198 billion today. Even if gaming revenue doubles again when the AI bubble pops, their total revenue will still drop by something like 80%. I'm neither smart nor dumb enough to be confident about whether that's something Nvidia can survive.
- sysguest 2mo ago
- trashb 2mo ago> but... as for google's bots... you need your website to be on the Google search results... Why? Depends totally on what kind of website you are running.
- mschild 2mo agoTotally agree. For a lot of tradefolks maps seem to be the actually more important location. Still Google obviously but it's less slopified in comparison to search. For now at least.
- sysguest 2mo agowell there are just 2 sources for website profits: 1. money from advertisements (from views, visits): you need to be on google search results at the bear minimum. 2. money from non-advertisements, mostly-offline (eg. you sell preminum stuff/service): you CAN hand out pamphlets to your service website IF your ROI per visit is so good to be true... but even in the 2nd case, it really helps to be on the google's search result
- rsynnott 2mo agoI'd be a little surprised if any of the hyperscalers (except for Oracle) die, though they may be quite badly burned.