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There is a limit on production efficiency, life is full of logistic curves which feel exponential at first until the inflection and leveling off phases. It's g

There is a limit on production efficiency, life is full of logistic curves which feel exponential at first until the inflection and leveling off phases. It's going to hurt when agriculture does not see the efficiency gains it has been receiving for the last century or so. We might be at the inflection or leveling off now.

650 2mo ago
Ponzi scheme stock market is also relevant here. Productivity will max out if RSI AGI doesn't pan out.
rainsford 2mo ago
Sure, but this particular issue isn't because we're hitting some plateau on computer cost or performance efficiency where instead of paying less money for more performance like we've gotten used to you're paying the same to get similar performance. Instead for probably the first time in the history of computing devices as a consumer product, you're paying significantly more money to get the same thing you could have paid much less for months or years ago. If you bought a computer in 2025, it's unexpectedly an appreciating asset.
ethbr1 2mo ago
> It's going to hurt when agriculture does not see the efficiency gains it has been receiving for the last century or so. Could go either way. Advanced robotics + AI could finally break more agriculture free from the "tied to people's time" limitation. Or all the growable land could be in use, so that simply decreases prices a bit. Expect world population leveling off will be the biggest determinant.
- inigyou 2mo ago
  People's time isn't a significant restriction on agriculture. It used to be, but now it's all giant corporate robotic industrial processes and the bottleneck is on land.
  - ethbr1 2mo ago
    Not in the sense that there aren't enough people to work, because there are, but because there isn't enough human labor willing to work at economically sustainable prices. There are categories of foods (e.g. many vegetables) that aren't economical to grow because they (1) require manual labor and (2) the price of that manual labor must compete against alternatives (soybeans) that require less. If robotics + AI provides working people-less solutions, then suddenly those crops become economically viable to grow again, which also opens up the land that might be unsuited for heavy-mechanized farming (flat, rectangular).

650 2mo ago

Ponzi scheme stock market is also relevant here. Productivity will max out if RSI AGI doesn't pan out.

rainsford 2mo ago

Sure, but this particular issue isn't because we're hitting some plateau on computer cost or performance efficiency where instead of paying less money for more performance like we've gotten used to you're paying the same to get similar performance. Instead for probably the first time in the history of computing devices as a consumer product, you're paying significantly more money to get the same thing you could have paid much less for months or years ago. If you bought a computer in 2025, it's unexpectedly an appreciating asset.

ethbr1 2mo ago

> It's going to hurt when agriculture does not see the efficiency gains it has been receiving for the last century or so. Could go either way. Advanced robotics + AI could finally break more agriculture free from the "tied to people's time" limitation. Or all the growable land could be in use, so that simply decreases prices a bit. Expect world population leveling off will be the biggest determinant.

inigyou 2mo ago
People's time isn't a significant restriction on agriculture. It used to be, but now it's all giant corporate robotic industrial processes and the bottleneck is on land.
- ethbr1 2mo ago
  Not in the sense that there aren't enough people to work, because there are, but because there isn't enough human labor willing to work at economically sustainable prices. There are categories of foods (e.g. many vegetables) that aren't economical to grow because they (1) require manual labor and (2) the price of that manual labor must compete against alternatives (soybeans) that require less. If robotics + AI provides working people-less solutions, then suddenly those crops become economically viable to grow again, which also opens up the land that might be unsuited for heavy-mechanized farming (flat, rectangular).