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Even if we don't consider economics, the reason "AI" has not increased white collar productivity is because it's not necessary for knowledge work beyond aggrega

Even if we don't consider economics, the reason "AI" has not increased white collar productivity is because it's not necessary for knowledge work beyond aggregating information for research. Knowledge work has always been a lot more arguing than "doing". Google was already the default option for this, and Google Gemini is a genuine improvement for Google Search. Google (and Apple) have sidestepped all the drama by just improving their existing products. Sometimes that's the right call in the shorter term, and this is one of those times.

jay_kyburz 2mo ago
Yes, and the scary thing is, when Google starts selling ads in Gemini results, you wont be able to see them, it will be a bigger business that Google Search ever was. Update: Perhaps this is what Zitron doesn't want to say out loud, (and why investors are confused), the return on investment is going to come from having the largest mind control machine the world has even known.
- flextheruler 2mo ago
  There's just no easy way to see what makes LLMs able to duplicate the profits of the entire existing tech sector of the economy. This is the return they need to make based on what they're currently expensing and projecting. Couple that with the circular financing agreements and it's just preposterous. Zitron may have been first and most outspoken to this argument, but like all bubbles it's an open secret.
  - HWR_14 2mo ago
    LLM advertising consuming all current advertising dollars plus more is realistic. That's a solid chunk of the entire tech center it eats right there.
- sublinear 2mo ago
  > the return on investment is going to come from having the largest mind control machine the world has even known This is what Google already was and continues to be. They didn't need OpenAI and Anthropic as foils to maintain that position or expand Google Cloud. If anything, they did all this work with Gemini despite what's happening on the sidelines. OpenAI secured their multinational defense contract with Project Stargate. I can easily see the extremely high demand to get rid of so many contractors with security clearances. No government believes that the risk of another Snowden-like whistleblower is worth the mediocre intelligence summaries. The loser will be Anthropic unless Microsoft buys them out for a lowball price at the last minute in an attempt to make Copilot less terrible. For everyone else, it's business as usual.

jay_kyburz 2mo ago

Yes, and the scary thing is, when Google starts selling ads in Gemini results, you wont be able to see them, it will be a bigger business that Google Search ever was. Update: Perhaps this is what Zitron doesn't want to say out loud, (and why investors are confused), the return on investment is going to come from having the largest mind control machine the world has even known.

flextheruler 2mo ago
There's just no easy way to see what makes LLMs able to duplicate the profits of the entire existing tech sector of the economy. This is the return they need to make based on what they're currently expensing and projecting. Couple that with the circular financing agreements and it's just preposterous. Zitron may have been first and most outspoken to this argument, but like all bubbles it's an open secret.
- HWR_14 2mo ago
  LLM advertising consuming all current advertising dollars plus more is realistic. That's a solid chunk of the entire tech center it eats right there.
sublinear 2mo ago
> the return on investment is going to come from having the largest mind control machine the world has even known This is what Google already was and continues to be. They didn't need OpenAI and Anthropic as foils to maintain that position or expand Google Cloud. If anything, they did all this work with Gemini despite what's happening on the sidelines. OpenAI secured their multinational defense contract with Project Stargate. I can easily see the extremely high demand to get rid of so many contractors with security clearances. No government believes that the risk of another Snowden-like whistleblower is worth the mediocre intelligence summaries. The loser will be Anthropic unless Microsoft buys them out for a lowball price at the last minute in an attempt to make Copilot less terrible. For everyone else, it's business as usual.