I can accept the author's premise that LLMs double coding productivity today. Semiconductors following Moore's Law increased their density, which is a reasonab

I can accept the author's premise that LLMs double coding productivity today. Semiconductors following Moore's Law increased their density, which is a reasonable metric for effectiveness, by 40% a year for several decades. Leaving aside projections of AGI in two years, it's still a substantial impact if we can figure out how to increase coding productivity by 40% a year for two or three decades. I don't think that gets us to AGI or the Singularity, but it's similar to the impact of the steam engine, steel, or electricity. These are "normal technologies" that were transformational, and that may be the path we are on with LLMs.