3 ms·

> There needs to be a certain level maintained Isn't that the "180mn to 200mn barrels"?

vel0city 3mo ago
~300 - 200 = 100mn useful barrels. If we're drawing it down by about 4 a week, that's about 25 weeks. If it's really closer to the 180 needed to prevent collapse and hit unusable supply then it's 120mn barrels and we're at 30 weeks. A year is 52 weeks. That also is based on a massive assumption of constant draw rate. Something is probably going to change, who knows when. Maybe the war ends and things actually reopen soon. Maybe Iran manages to blow up Saudi pipelines avoiding the straight. Maybe China's SPR runs out (nobody knows what it's at) and international demand skyrockets again. Other reserves are likely to be eliminated soon as well, putting more international pressure. I wouldn't have a clue what the rate will be in a month or two, but I can't imagine it'll be anywhere near the same as the past few weeks.
- JumpCrisscross 3mo ago
  Oh yeah, I fucked up my math. Thanks.
- whatisthiseven 3mo ago
  Regardless of usage patterns, oil simply can't go above a certain price or a chunk of the northeast dies in winter. This war is the largest self inflicted wound to the US in history. And Trump is pretending like all is fine because he keeps, erroneously, believing the oil problem he caused will resolve itself. Of course the next (Dem) president will be blamed for low oil reserves and high prices to refill it.
mapping365 3mo ago
From what I understand, below 300 you start having issues, there's also a minimum national security level at 250 (not legally binding).
- JumpCrisscross 3mo ago
  > below 300 you start having issues Source?
  - mapping365 3mo ago
    I'll try to find it again, it was in a Bloomberg podcast about energy.
Computer0 3mo ago
This is unfamiliar territory, and honestly it's still an assumption. No one is sure at what level the system needs to remain stable.

~300 - 200 = 100mn useful barrels. If we're drawing it down by about 4 a week, that's about 25 weeks. If it's really closer to the 180 needed to prevent collapse and hit unusable supply then it's 120mn barrels and we're at 30 weeks. A year is 52 weeks. That also is based on a massive assumption of constant draw rate. Something is probably going to change, who knows when. Maybe the war ends and things actually reopen soon. Maybe Iran manages to blow up Saudi pipelines avoiding the straight. Maybe China's SPR runs out (nobody knows what it's at) and international demand skyrockets again. Other reserves are likely to be eliminated soon as well, putting more international pressure. I wouldn't have a clue what the rate will be in a month or two, but I can't imagine it'll be anywhere near the same as the past few weeks.

JumpCrisscross 3mo ago
Oh yeah, I fucked up my math. Thanks.
whatisthiseven 3mo ago
Regardless of usage patterns, oil simply can't go above a certain price or a chunk of the northeast dies in winter. This war is the largest self inflicted wound to the US in history. And Trump is pretending like all is fine because he keeps, erroneously, believing the oil problem he caused will resolve itself. Of course the next (Dem) president will be blamed for low oil reserves and high prices to refill it.

mapping365 3mo ago

From what I understand, below 300 you start having issues, there's also a minimum national security level at 250 (not legally binding).

JumpCrisscross 3mo ago
> below 300 you start having issues Source?
- mapping365 3mo ago
  I'll try to find it again, it was in a Bloomberg podcast about energy.

Computer0 3mo ago

This is unfamiliar territory, and honestly it's still an assumption. No one is sure at what level the system needs to remain stable.