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My unsolicited thoughts: * AI will drive additional features as development accelerates * There will be a window where fast adopting AI companies can deliver

My unsolicited thoughts: * AI will drive additional features as development accelerates * There will be a window where fast adopting AI companies can deliver features faster than peers * Those fast adopting AI companies will be able to garner additional revenue * Gap closes as AI benefits slow in their impact to feature development and slower adopting companies catch up * Companies that were faster adopters can no longer charge more for additional revenue without giving up market share to now caught-up competitors * New normal is that companies are in a bind - they have to pay for tokens/AI aided development else they lose speed and therefore market share - but the paying is now without additional revenue and exists as a tax Assumptions: * No AGI * LLMs have bounded impact on features * Timeframe is long enough that companies that trail in AI won't be starved out https://www.youtube.com/shorts/iVHmp9F4Rl0 https://www.youtube.com/shorts/iVHmp9F4Rl0

discreteevent 2mo ago
> There will be a window where fast adopting AI companies can deliver features faster than peers >Those fast adopting AI companies will be able to garner additional revenue The companies going 50% slower on reliable features that customers want to pay for will continue to wipe the floor with the hyper productive companies producing fluff.
- joshstrange 2mo ago
  I reject the premise that you can’t use LLM’s to build reliable features.
  - budsniffer952 2mo ago
    And you get down voted for saying something truthful and mundane because, apparently, HackerNews is now filled with morons.
cyanydeez 2mo ago
* AI will drive 10x bike shedding for 90% of the consumers diluting any real speed up, except the one...autist.
matrix87 2mo ago
> There will be a window where fast adopting AI companies can deliver features faster than peers The fundamental problem is having people doing the right things. Lines of code does not equal real economic value. I think AI will have a much different effect: raw headcount will no longer give large companies the same moat that they once had. If AI makes a 10x engineer into an 100x engineer and unlocks this whole world of productivity, getting them to actually deliver 100x requires the proper culture where they aren't blocked by environmental factors, management, and incentive structure. 10x -> 100x is an extreme example, but the point stands: if AI amplifies our productivity and productivity is determined by motivation + environment + alignment on priorities, in order to realize the advantage from AI, a company needs to both embrace it and have the right culture
- andrekandre 2mo ago
  > If AI makes a 10x engineer into an 100x engineer and unlocks this whole world of productivity, getting them to actually deliver 100x requires the proper culture where they aren't blocked by environmental factors, management, and incentive structure. yea, from what i've seen, even "ai-first" companies have too many barriers in place to allow anyone to reach that hypothetical 100x... to many reviews, daily meetings, incidents, goals set by management that you cant ignore, etc etc just a guess but i suppose that hypothetical 100x (if its even possible) is only going to be reachable by people in better suited orgs (my cynical side says very few) or just indie devs...

discreteevent 2mo ago

> There will be a window where fast adopting AI companies can deliver features faster than peers >Those fast adopting AI companies will be able to garner additional revenue The companies going 50% slower on reliable features that customers want to pay for will continue to wipe the floor with the hyper productive companies producing fluff.

joshstrange 2mo ago
I reject the premise that you can’t use LLM’s to build reliable features.
- budsniffer952 2mo ago
  And you get down voted for saying something truthful and mundane because, apparently, HackerNews is now filled with morons.

cyanydeez 2mo ago

* AI will drive 10x bike shedding for 90% of the consumers diluting any real speed up, except the one...autist.

matrix87 2mo ago

> There will be a window where fast adopting AI companies can deliver features faster than peers The fundamental problem is having people doing the right things. Lines of code does not equal real economic value. I think AI will have a much different effect: raw headcount will no longer give large companies the same moat that they once had. If AI makes a 10x engineer into an 100x engineer and unlocks this whole world of productivity, getting them to actually deliver 100x requires the proper culture where they aren't blocked by environmental factors, management, and incentive structure. 10x -> 100x is an extreme example, but the point stands: if AI amplifies our productivity and productivity is determined by motivation + environment + alignment on priorities, in order to realize the advantage from AI, a company needs to both embrace it and have the right culture

andrekandre 2mo ago
> If AI makes a 10x engineer into an 100x engineer and unlocks this whole world of productivity, getting them to actually deliver 100x requires the proper culture where they aren't blocked by environmental factors, management, and incentive structure. yea, from what i've seen, even "ai-first" companies have too many barriers in place to allow anyone to reach that hypothetical 100x... to many reviews, daily meetings, incidents, goals set by management that you cant ignore, etc etc just a guess but i suppose that hypothetical 100x (if its even possible) is only going to be reachable by people in better suited orgs (my cynical side says very few) or just indie devs...