4 ms·

$2.5tn is about 8% of U.S. GDP. So a handful of AI firms really expect that they will become larger than the entire U.S. sectors of manufacturing, government, o

$2.5tn is about 8% of U.S. GDP. So a handful of AI firms really expect that they will become larger than the entire U.S. sectors of manufacturing, government, or healthcare?

nemomarx 3mo ago
Investors expect that they will, I guess. If you really believe the strong ai use cases (like exponential improvements, or it replacing hundreds of knowledge workers at every company" then maybe this isn't unreasonable.
- misterderpie 3mo ago
  If many people lose their jobs, thus consumers having less and less money, where would that money come from?
  - nemomarx 3mo ago
    If you look at recent trends in consumer spending, a lot more of it is from the upper classes and less from the middle. Selling services to the rich can displace the loss of white collar workers. (in theory). as a bonus, ideally you create some more really wealthy people to spend on things during this shift.
    - misterderpie 3mo ago
      I'm yet to see what part of AI really wealthy people would like to spend their money on. It's not like we can get AI Yachts and AI Rockets. What would the premium product for the upper class be?
      - trollbridge 3mo ago
        My experience with rich people is they don’t even sign up for ChatGPT Pro. They’re happy to use a free tier or pay $20 a month.
  - ben_w 3mo ago
    Depends how many people, but don't forget that: 1) people like me exist: I don't live in the USA, yet it is possible for me to buy things which are made in the USA 2) fiat money is only created or deleted by laws the government controls (plus a tiny quantity from forgery and damage to coins and notes), so everyone losing their jobs doesn't make the money disappear, just who has it available to spend 3) previous waves of automation have created new business opportunities; while this has not been too good for the people who lost jobs to the automation, it has generally boosted the overall economies this happened in, so it is absolutely possible to wipe out tech employees without it seriously harming consumers collectively
philipwhiuk 3mo ago
The share price is based on them eliminating entire sectors yes.
- trollbridge 3mo ago
  A rather big assumption everyone will keep paying API prices to OAI and Anthropic, though. $3.2tn a year on inference is going to attract a lot of competition.
polytely 3mo ago
I guess the bet is that they will become embedded in basically 8% of the tasks in every sector. which I guess could happen long term? thinking about the whole ass economy in this way always make my mind boggle so I don't really feel equipped to talk intelligently about this.
jcranmer 3mo ago
I suspect that they believe they can integrate with a substantial portion of not just the US economy, but also most of the European and formal Latin America economies. And I also suspect that the number is quite high because there are so many AI companies planning to snag like 80% market share for AI.

$2.5tn is about 8% of U.S. GDP. So a handful of AI firms really expect that they will become larger than the entire U.S. sectors of manufacturing, government, or healthcare?

nemomarx 3mo ago

Investors expect that they will, I guess. If you really believe the strong ai use cases (like exponential improvements, or it replacing hundreds of knowledge workers at every company" then maybe this isn't unreasonable.

misterderpie 3mo ago
If many people lose their jobs, thus consumers having less and less money, where would that money come from?
- nemomarx 3mo ago
  If you look at recent trends in consumer spending, a lot more of it is from the upper classes and less from the middle. Selling services to the rich can displace the loss of white collar workers. (in theory). as a bonus, ideally you create some more really wealthy people to spend on things during this shift.
  - misterderpie 3mo ago
    I'm yet to see what part of AI really wealthy people would like to spend their money on. It's not like we can get AI Yachts and AI Rockets. What would the premium product for the upper class be?
    - trollbridge 3mo ago
      My experience with rich people is they don’t even sign up for ChatGPT Pro. They’re happy to use a free tier or pay $20 a month.
- ben_w 3mo ago
  Depends how many people, but don't forget that: 1) people like me exist: I don't live in the USA, yet it is possible for me to buy things which are made in the USA 2) fiat money is only created or deleted by laws the government controls (plus a tiny quantity from forgery and damage to coins and notes), so everyone losing their jobs doesn't make the money disappear, just who has it available to spend 3) previous waves of automation have created new business opportunities; while this has not been too good for the people who lost jobs to the automation, it has generally boosted the overall economies this happened in, so it is absolutely possible to wipe out tech employees without it seriously harming consumers collectively

philipwhiuk 3mo ago

The share price is based on them eliminating entire sectors yes.

trollbridge 3mo ago
A rather big assumption everyone will keep paying API prices to OAI and Anthropic, though. $3.2tn a year on inference is going to attract a lot of competition.

polytely 3mo ago

I guess the bet is that they will become embedded in basically 8% of the tasks in every sector. which I guess could happen long term? thinking about the whole ass economy in this way always make my mind boggle so I don't really feel equipped to talk intelligently about this.

jcranmer 3mo ago

I suspect that they believe they can integrate with a substantial portion of not just the US economy, but also most of the European and formal Latin America economies. And I also suspect that the number is quite high because there are so many AI companies planning to snag like 80% market share for AI.