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> If Anthropic and OpenAI believed customers would actually pay the real cost of AI tokens, they wouldn't have to give away 20 to 40 times the amount of tokens

> If Anthropic and OpenAI believed customers would actually pay the real cost of AI tokens, they wouldn't have to give away 20 to 40 times the amount of tokens to subscribers. One logical gap in the SemiAnalysis 40x cost of tokens versus subscription: I don't know anybody actually maxing out their account limits. Sure, if you're somehow always running stuff, you can max it out, but subscriptions like this allow people to max sometimes (or always), while others never come close to the max. What is the average usage of subscribers? Only Anthropic and OpenAI know, as far as I can tell.

wilg 3mo ago
I max out Claude Code and Codex subs both every week without fail and I’m doing a lot of work but it’s not insane.
telotortium 3mo ago
Also enterprises have to pay per-token.
namrog84 3mo ago
Just to counterpoint the adjacent replier. I have claude, chatgpt, and gemini subs and rarely even use even close to 50%. I code c++ everyday. But im not full in on agentic workflows which is probably why. I mostly do fairly targeted things to my various code bases.
ChrisMarshallNY 3mo ago
I'm of the opinion that the market will need to expand, horizontally. That's what's happening, with low-cost LLMs. I already know lots of "regular folks" that are totally hooked on LLMs (mostly ChatGPT, at the "regular mensch" level). They usually use the free tier, but a lot of them are doing the $20/month Pro tier. If anyone is in my age group, they remember when ATMs were free. It was the "heroin dealer" business model. It worked out well (for the banks). The Chinese did it with manufacturing. Getting people hooked on subsidized junk, is an age-old (and highly effective) business model. Think of all the shops that will soon be composed of people that simply can't even get out of bed, if their LLM is not available. If the LLM dealer starts raising the price, there's no choice. I suspect many of the valuations are taking this into account. > "Junk is the ideal product... the ultimate merchandise. No sales talk necessary. The client will crawl through a sewer and beg to buy." -William Burroughs
- dan_gee 3mo ago
  > Think of all the shops that will soon be composed of people that simply can't even get out of bed, if their LLM is not available. I'm biased because I don't use AI, but I don't understand why you wouldn't fire these LLM-addicted people and replace them with people who can code or write an email without the use of an AI assistant.
  - ChrisMarshallNY 3mo ago
    They won't. They'll just pay more for the LLM. I use LLMs all the time, but I'm also a highly capable and experienced engineer that can definitely work without. I have just found that the LLM is a force multiplier, like I haven't had before.
    - bensyverson 3mo ago
      Same, though the types of jobs I’m working on now require the speed I get from LLMs. If I had to take my current projects and switch to hand-coding I’d have to extend the timelines and practically add a zero to the price.
      - dan_gee 3mo ago
        If you don't mind sharing, what types of jobs are you working on now? I haven't personally seen a speed boost from LLMs, but my experience with them suggests that they could be effective in some domains and inadequate in others. E.G., I have observed that LLM tools are inadequate for generating C++ code.
        ChrisMarshallNY 3mo ago
        I’m writing Swift (native iOS apps), with PHP backends. I have found it does good PHP code, and Swift code that definitely needs adult supervision. Also, very good for things like code documentation, debugging, and writing copy for things.

wilg 3mo ago

I max out Claude Code and Codex subs both every week without fail and I’m doing a lot of work but it’s not insane.

telotortium 3mo ago

Also enterprises have to pay per-token.

namrog84 3mo ago

Just to counterpoint the adjacent replier. I have claude, chatgpt, and gemini subs and rarely even use even close to 50%. I code c++ everyday. But im not full in on agentic workflows which is probably why. I mostly do fairly targeted things to my various code bases.

ChrisMarshallNY 3mo ago

I'm of the opinion that the market will need to expand, horizontally. That's what's happening, with low-cost LLMs. I already know lots of "regular folks" that are totally hooked on LLMs (mostly ChatGPT, at the "regular mensch" level). They usually use the free tier, but a lot of them are doing the $20/month Pro tier. If anyone is in my age group, they remember when ATMs were free. It was the "heroin dealer" business model. It worked out well (for the banks). The Chinese did it with manufacturing. Getting people hooked on subsidized junk, is an age-old (and highly effective) business model. Think of all the shops that will soon be composed of people that simply can't even get out of bed, if their LLM is not available. If the LLM dealer starts raising the price, there's no choice. I suspect many of the valuations are taking this into account. > "Junk is the ideal product... the ultimate merchandise. No sales talk necessary. The client will crawl through a sewer and beg to buy." -William Burroughs

dan_gee 3mo ago
> Think of all the shops that will soon be composed of people that simply can't even get out of bed, if their LLM is not available. I'm biased because I don't use AI, but I don't understand why you wouldn't fire these LLM-addicted people and replace them with people who can code or write an email without the use of an AI assistant.
- ChrisMarshallNY 3mo ago
  They won't. They'll just pay more for the LLM. I use LLMs all the time, but I'm also a highly capable and experienced engineer that can definitely work without. I have just found that the LLM is a force multiplier, like I haven't had before.
  - bensyverson 3mo ago
    Same, though the types of jobs I’m working on now require the speed I get from LLMs. If I had to take my current projects and switch to hand-coding I’d have to extend the timelines and practically add a zero to the price.
    - dan_gee 3mo ago
      If you don't mind sharing, what types of jobs are you working on now? I haven't personally seen a speed boost from LLMs, but my experience with them suggests that they could be effective in some domains and inadequate in others. E.G., I have observed that LLM tools are inadequate for generating C++ code.
      - ChrisMarshallNY 3mo ago
        I’m writing Swift (native iOS apps), with PHP backends. I have found it does good PHP code, and Swift code that definitely needs adult supervision. Also, very good for things like code documentation, debugging, and writing copy for things.