4 ms·

I’m probably illustrating your point but as a FSD fan it really got ”good enough” recently with version 14. The tipping point was suddenly, much more often than

by qwerpy 2mo ago

I’m probably illustrating your point but as a FSD fan it really got ”good enough” recently with version 14. The tipping point was suddenly, much more often than not, it can drive end to end from start (my garage) to finish (parked at destination) with no interventions. I can text and watch videos on my phone and as long as I glance up once a minute, it doesn’t complain. Handling highway driving with lane changes was great when it got there years ago, but just in the last year or so it has gone from a nice to have to “from now on I will never buy a car that can’t do this”. AI has hit some milestones for replacing work as well. There’s still many more to go and maybe some of them will never get hit (much like I don’t think a coast to coast drive with zero interventions during winter conditions is ever going to happen) but there are points at which it forever meaningfully changes some field of work. I think it’s there for writing code.

ben_w 2mo ago
> I’m probably illustrating your point but as a FSD fan Half-and-half. I'm not denying that self driving cars (and LLMs) are improving, I'm comparing it against the standards set by the biggest proponents. But yes, I have heard basically the same thing you just wrote for the previous several major releases of FSD. Where we agree is that, while you are a fan, you do explicitly give as an example of something you think it will never do, something very close to what Musk has promised: "Ultimately you'll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you'll be able to summon your car from across the country. It will meet you wherever your phone is … and it will just automatically charge itself along the entire journey." - Musk, in Jan 2016: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono... (That said, I think Tesla's FSD will never get there, not that it's impossible. The way Musk is behaving, there's going to be a financial scheme named after him in whatever passes for a textbook in 20 years, and it won't be the positive kind of example).
- qwerpy 2mo ago
  What matters is the benefit it affords to drivers, not what "biggest proponents" say. Elon got overly excited in 2016, but for my day to day usage, I don't need it to self-charge on a drive across the country to get me. I need it to safely drive my family on my daily errands or weekend trips, which I now consider solved. I'm mentally prepared for the next US administration to exact retribution on his companies, and I expect FSD will be neutered after that. Hopefully other car companies are able to catch up. I'm more of a self-driving fan than a Tesla fan, so as long as the thing works as well as what I have now, I'll be fine with it.
  - ben_w 2mo ago
    > Elon got overly excited in 2016 Yes. He was before and remains so to this day, but he did so then, too. > I need it to safely drive my family on my daily errands or weekend trips, which I now consider solved. This is probably unwise. As with LLMs, the statistics suggest a spikiness in the intelligence, with it being mostly good but also sometimes still making some very odd mistakes that humans would essentially never make. As with your other comment, you know that if it gets into a crash you're responsible; while you consider this a win, I suggest waiting until the company you buy the car from (in this case Tesla) puts their money where their mouth is on quality and takes liability for crashes due to the AI upon themselves. (The Cybercab was supposed to be sans-steering-wheel and sans-pedals, which would be a sign of that level of confidence, but the ones spotted in the wild at least sometimes seem to come with the wheel, which suggests they're still not there yet: https://www.vehiclesuggest.com/cybercab-with-steering-wheel-seen-at-giga-texas/ https://www.vehiclesuggest.com/cybercab-with-steering-wheel-... https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/real-tesla-cybercab-spotted-in-the-wild-with-tweaks-as-tesla-forges-ahead-with-driverless https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/real-tesla-cybercab-sp...) > Hopefully other car companies are able to catch up. From the stats I've seen, they're much closer to the goal, relatively smoother/less spiky all-round driving intelligence. They may not be as impressive at their best, but when they fail the failure modes are themselves much safer.
    - qwerpy 2mo ago
      The data shows that FSD (supervised) is safer than human alone driving. Given that I value the well-being of my family, FSD (supervised) it is as often as possible. Separately from the data, it is just so nice to hit a button and sit back and relax for the entirety of the drive. The usual HN nits at this point are that the data is unreliable/biased and that the way I’m using it isn’t supervised enough. I’ll admit to the latter. In my experience the mistakes tend to be navigational but I’ve seen a few of the “nearly drove through the lane closed gate” videos so I definitely keep a closer watch when there is complicated highway stuff going on. I also have my foot at the ready for when I go through the gate to my community, similar failure mode and about 1% of the time it forgets to wait for the gate to close and reopen. I look forward to the other car companies catching up, competition and more options are good. Elon is a loose cannon, so I need alternatives if Tesla ceases to be.
grim_io 2mo ago
Who is responsible for any accident happening while you use your phone during FSD? It's not FSD until the human is no longer responsible. This half measure bullshit is a joke.
- qwerpy 2mo ago
  The fact of the matter is that it drives reliably end to end. I don't care who's responsible or what it's called. I only care about the benefit it provides my family, which is immense. If it gets into a crash I know I'm responsible, but given that I consider it a better driver than I am now, this is an improvement over before.
  - grim_io 2mo ago
    I'm not going to tell you how you should keep your family safe, or not. It's just absolutely crazy to me that you trust this experimental feature more than the manufacturer does.
    - 3ff3 2mo ago
      [dead]
      - Alpha3031 2mo ago
        People's right to make stupid decisions end when they reach public roads and/or borrow children to make a point. That's why we have things like driver's licences.
      - qwerpy 2mo ago
        Yes, I'll continue stupidly looking at data and putting the safety of my family in the hands of the safer option. If only I could be smart enough to use emotion-based politics to make those decisions instead.
        rightbyte 2mo ago
StilesCrisis 2mo ago
Please don't text and watch videos when you drive.
sumeno 2mo ago
You are going to get someone killed. You should not be allowed on the road
keeda 2mo ago
I would deeply implore you to not put to much faith in this technology as there are many very dangerous edge cases, including as I personally experienced, jumping red lights after coming to a full stop: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48928102 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48928102 And this is not anecdotal, there are enough reports that an investigation is ongoing: https://autos.yahoo.com/policy-and-environment/articles/tesla-fsd-red-light-probe-120800698.html https://autos.yahoo.com/policy-and-environment/articles/tesl... I keep saying, FSD being marketed as FSD is going to get people killed and I can't believe more is not being done to prevent this.

by qwerpy 2mo ago

ben_w 2mo ago

> I’m probably illustrating your point but as a FSD fan Half-and-half. I'm not denying that self driving cars (and LLMs) are improving, I'm comparing it against the standards set by the biggest proponents. But yes, I have heard basically the same thing you just wrote for the previous several major releases of FSD. Where we agree is that, while you are a fan, you do explicitly give as an example of something you think it will never do, something very close to what Musk has promised: "Ultimately you'll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you'll be able to summon your car from across the country. It will meet you wherever your phone is … and it will just automatically charge itself along the entire journey." - Musk, in Jan 2016: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono... (That said, I think Tesla's FSD will never get there, not that it's impossible. The way Musk is behaving, there's going to be a financial scheme named after him in whatever passes for a textbook in 20 years, and it won't be the positive kind of example).

qwerpy 2mo ago
What matters is the benefit it affords to drivers, not what "biggest proponents" say. Elon got overly excited in 2016, but for my day to day usage, I don't need it to self-charge on a drive across the country to get me. I need it to safely drive my family on my daily errands or weekend trips, which I now consider solved. I'm mentally prepared for the next US administration to exact retribution on his companies, and I expect FSD will be neutered after that. Hopefully other car companies are able to catch up. I'm more of a self-driving fan than a Tesla fan, so as long as the thing works as well as what I have now, I'll be fine with it.
- ben_w 2mo ago
  > Elon got overly excited in 2016 Yes. He was before and remains so to this day, but he did so then, too. > I need it to safely drive my family on my daily errands or weekend trips, which I now consider solved. This is probably unwise. As with LLMs, the statistics suggest a spikiness in the intelligence, with it being mostly good but also sometimes still making some very odd mistakes that humans would essentially never make. As with your other comment, you know that if it gets into a crash you're responsible; while you consider this a win, I suggest waiting until the company you buy the car from (in this case Tesla) puts their money where their mouth is on quality and takes liability for crashes due to the AI upon themselves. (The Cybercab was supposed to be sans-steering-wheel and sans-pedals, which would be a sign of that level of confidence, but the ones spotted in the wild at least sometimes seem to come with the wheel, which suggests they're still not there yet: https://www.vehiclesuggest.com/cybercab-with-steering-wheel-seen-at-giga-texas/ https://www.vehiclesuggest.com/cybercab-with-steering-wheel-... https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/real-tesla-cybercab-spotted-in-the-wild-with-tweaks-as-tesla-forges-ahead-with-driverless https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/real-tesla-cybercab-sp...) > Hopefully other car companies are able to catch up. From the stats I've seen, they're much closer to the goal, relatively smoother/less spiky all-round driving intelligence. They may not be as impressive at their best, but when they fail the failure modes are themselves much safer.
  - qwerpy 2mo ago
    The data shows that FSD (supervised) is safer than human alone driving. Given that I value the well-being of my family, FSD (supervised) it is as often as possible. Separately from the data, it is just so nice to hit a button and sit back and relax for the entirety of the drive. The usual HN nits at this point are that the data is unreliable/biased and that the way I’m using it isn’t supervised enough. I’ll admit to the latter. In my experience the mistakes tend to be navigational but I’ve seen a few of the “nearly drove through the lane closed gate” videos so I definitely keep a closer watch when there is complicated highway stuff going on. I also have my foot at the ready for when I go through the gate to my community, similar failure mode and about 1% of the time it forgets to wait for the gate to close and reopen. I look forward to the other car companies catching up, competition and more options are good. Elon is a loose cannon, so I need alternatives if Tesla ceases to be.

grim_io 2mo ago

Who is responsible for any accident happening while you use your phone during FSD? It's not FSD until the human is no longer responsible. This half measure bullshit is a joke.

qwerpy 2mo ago
The fact of the matter is that it drives reliably end to end. I don't care who's responsible or what it's called. I only care about the benefit it provides my family, which is immense. If it gets into a crash I know I'm responsible, but given that I consider it a better driver than I am now, this is an improvement over before.
- grim_io 2mo ago
  I'm not going to tell you how you should keep your family safe, or not. It's just absolutely crazy to me that you trust this experimental feature more than the manufacturer does.
  - 3ff3 2mo ago
    [dead]
    - Alpha3031 2mo ago
      People's right to make stupid decisions end when they reach public roads and/or borrow children to make a point. That's why we have things like driver's licences.
    - qwerpy 2mo ago
      Yes, I'll continue stupidly looking at data and putting the safety of my family in the hands of the safer option. If only I could be smart enough to use emotion-based politics to make those decisions instead.
      - rightbyte 2mo ago

StilesCrisis 2mo ago

Please don't text and watch videos when you drive.

sumeno 2mo ago

You are going to get someone killed. You should not be allowed on the road

keeda 2mo ago

I would deeply implore you to not put to much faith in this technology as there are many very dangerous edge cases, including as I personally experienced, jumping red lights after coming to a full stop: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48928102 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48928102 And this is not anecdotal, there are enough reports that an investigation is ongoing: https://autos.yahoo.com/policy-and-environment/articles/tesla-fsd-red-light-probe-120800698.html https://autos.yahoo.com/policy-and-environment/articles/tesl... I keep saying, FSD being marketed as FSD is going to get people killed and I can't believe more is not being done to prevent this.