This is great! I wish more people did analyses like these. One nitpick: intuitively, I'm not comfortable with the idea that a 20% chance for each nominated mo

This is great! I wish more people did analyses like these. One nitpick: intuitively, I'm not comfortable with the idea that a 20% chance for each nominated movie is a reasonable prior. There is a ranking of the 5 nominations implied by the voting process (http://tr.im/gEYg http://tr.im/gEYg). However, not being very familiar with Academy Award voting, I'm not sure if this data is ever publicly released. Anyone?