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Well deserved. Her most memorable program for me was her 2018 program "Contagion" which modelled a virus outbreak among volunteers in the town of Haslemere, UK

by kitd 2mo ago

Well deserved. Her most memorable program for me was her 2018 program "Contagion" which modelled a virus outbreak among volunteers in the town of Haslemere, UK, using an app measuring Bluetooth proximity. Guess which town contained the UK's Covid patient zero a year later! Edit: found it here https://youtu.be/yISdMLbO0Wc?is=T-Tq9LwzLgbusuoe https://youtu.be/yISdMLbO0Wc?is=T-Tq9LwzLgbusuoe

pmg101 2mo ago
And didn't the NHS app use Bluetooth proximity to alert you if you'd been in contact with a COVID case early in the pandemic? A nice case of life imitating art.
- kitd 2mo ago
  Yeah, just watching the first few minutes of the program, it's astonishing how prophetic it was.
  - rustyhancock 2mo ago
    It's not prophetic. Prophetic means it predicts the future, this is epidimlogical science being applied as intended. It didn't predict the future it designed it because we applied it. Contagion used GPS logging to predict who was where an applied a random transmission risk based on that. The actual origin of the Bluetooth proximity and duration tracking was from FluPhone back in 2010 or so[0] Human contact networks, and epidemiology is a long standing science COVID just made that apparent for the lay public. Quarantines have existed for centuries, contact tracing is Victorian (smallpox mostly),social distancing, It was all application of research that largely already existed. [0] https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/srg/netos/projects/archive/fluphone2/ https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/srg/netos/projects/archive...
    - thegabriele 2mo ago
      Since you seems well versed in the matter...Did we learn something new from the whole covid experience?
      - lostlogin 2mo ago
        > Did we learn something new from the whole covid experience? The hardest part of a 5 day snap lockdown are the first 10 weeks.
      - nephihaha 2mo ago
        Yes: * That you sell a six month lockdown by saying it will take two or three weeks. You can do this several times. * That censorship is essential. * That any public disagreement will be responded to with terms of personal abuse. * That you can use it to introduce/try out all kinds of other long-desired schemes like digital ID (so called passports) or increasing working from home.
        spiderfarmer 2mo ago
        And that it will clearly show, without any doubt, the people who will cling to fringe beliefs to justify their lack of empathy.
        nephihaha 2mo ago
        Many of the decisions made were not scientific, nor were they compassionate. Despite claims to the contrary. Permitting intercontinental flights and Amazon delivery cannot be construed as either. In fact flights would be one of the biggest vectors. History shows that the biggest danger from humans is when they follow leaders' statements without question. They are capable of anything when their personal responsibility is outsourced. Obedience is not always a virtue. Dissidence =/= fringe beliefs I certainly see the near abandonment of vulnerable groups such as addicts and the elderly as unempathetic. I knew some people who died that way, including one who drank himself to death due to complete lack of offline support.
      - thegabriele 2mo ago
skerit 2mo ago
And on her podcast with Vsauce she said the reason they chose that town was because their budget was so low and they could sleep over at a crew member's family there.
- willis936 2mo ago
  Which episode? I subscribe but I don't have the attention surplus to listen to them all.
  - inamorty 2mo ago
    https://youtu.be/ClqvH-uG2Mw https://youtu.be/ClqvH-uG2Mw Hannah Predicted a Pandemic | The Rest Is Science
    - nephihaha 2mo ago
      So did Bill Gates in his Ted talk six years before and the Event 201 table top exercise six months before lockdown. The second one also managed to predict the use of trusted media and keeping intercontinental flights going throughout the pandemic.
      - willis936 2mo ago
        Wait until you watch the 2011 movie Contagion.
    - telesilla 2mo ago
      Starts at 32mins https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ClqvH-uG2Mw&t=1902s https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ClqvH-uG2Mw&t=1902s
dspillett 2mo ago
> UK's Covid patient zero a year later! I thought our first confirmed case was in York, very late in January 2020, who was staying at the Staycity hotel while visiting a family member attending the University here. That hotel is just around the corner from where we do martial arts of an evening, so we were acutely aware of that bit of news. Though IIRC they were from another country, so might not count depending on how "UK's Covid patient zero" is defined.
- kitd 2mo ago
  Yeah, you're probably right. Looking back at news reports, it looks like the Haslemere case may have been the first person infected within the UK, ie they hadn't been abroad.
philjohn 2mo ago
Her youtube shorts are also good bite-sized explainers. The one on why "ghost" traffic jams occur was illuminating.

by kitd 2mo ago

pmg101 2mo ago

And didn't the NHS app use Bluetooth proximity to alert you if you'd been in contact with a COVID case early in the pandemic? A nice case of life imitating art.

kitd 2mo ago
Yeah, just watching the first few minutes of the program, it's astonishing how prophetic it was.
- rustyhancock 2mo ago
  It's not prophetic. Prophetic means it predicts the future, this is epidimlogical science being applied as intended. It didn't predict the future it designed it because we applied it. Contagion used GPS logging to predict who was where an applied a random transmission risk based on that. The actual origin of the Bluetooth proximity and duration tracking was from FluPhone back in 2010 or so[0] Human contact networks, and epidemiology is a long standing science COVID just made that apparent for the lay public. Quarantines have existed for centuries, contact tracing is Victorian (smallpox mostly),social distancing, It was all application of research that largely already existed. [0] https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/srg/netos/projects/archive/fluphone2/ https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/srg/netos/projects/archive...
  - thegabriele 2mo ago
    Since you seems well versed in the matter...Did we learn something new from the whole covid experience?
    - lostlogin 2mo ago
      > Did we learn something new from the whole covid experience? The hardest part of a 5 day snap lockdown are the first 10 weeks.
    - nephihaha 2mo ago
      Yes: * That you sell a six month lockdown by saying it will take two or three weeks. You can do this several times. * That censorship is essential. * That any public disagreement will be responded to with terms of personal abuse. * That you can use it to introduce/try out all kinds of other long-desired schemes like digital ID (so called passports) or increasing working from home.
      - spiderfarmer 2mo ago
        And that it will clearly show, without any doubt, the people who will cling to fringe beliefs to justify their lack of empathy.
        nephihaha 2mo ago
        Many of the decisions made were not scientific, nor were they compassionate. Despite claims to the contrary. Permitting intercontinental flights and Amazon delivery cannot be construed as either. In fact flights would be one of the biggest vectors. History shows that the biggest danger from humans is when they follow leaders' statements without question. They are capable of anything when their personal responsibility is outsourced. Obedience is not always a virtue. Dissidence =/= fringe beliefs I certainly see the near abandonment of vulnerable groups such as addicts and the elderly as unempathetic. I knew some people who died that way, including one who drank himself to death due to complete lack of offline support.
    - thegabriele 2mo ago

skerit 2mo ago

And on her podcast with Vsauce she said the reason they chose that town was because their budget was so low and they could sleep over at a crew member's family there.

willis936 2mo ago
Which episode? I subscribe but I don't have the attention surplus to listen to them all.
- inamorty 2mo ago
  https://youtu.be/ClqvH-uG2Mw https://youtu.be/ClqvH-uG2Mw Hannah Predicted a Pandemic | The Rest Is Science
  - nephihaha 2mo ago
    So did Bill Gates in his Ted talk six years before and the Event 201 table top exercise six months before lockdown. The second one also managed to predict the use of trusted media and keeping intercontinental flights going throughout the pandemic.
    - willis936 2mo ago
      Wait until you watch the 2011 movie Contagion.
  - telesilla 2mo ago
    Starts at 32mins https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ClqvH-uG2Mw&t=1902s https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ClqvH-uG2Mw&t=1902s

dspillett 2mo ago

> UK's Covid patient zero a year later! I thought our first confirmed case was in York, very late in January 2020, who was staying at the Staycity hotel while visiting a family member attending the University here. That hotel is just around the corner from where we do martial arts of an evening, so we were acutely aware of that bit of news. Though IIRC they were from another country, so might not count depending on how "UK's Covid patient zero" is defined.

kitd 2mo ago
Yeah, you're probably right. Looking back at news reports, it looks like the Haslemere case may have been the first person infected within the UK, ie they hadn't been abroad.

philjohn 2mo ago

Her youtube shorts are also good bite-sized explainers. The one on why "ghost" traffic jams occur was illuminating.