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That is similar to pointing to someone on the street and claiming they want to commit suicide because you see no indication that they want to live. Unless there
by roenxi 3mo ago
That is similar to pointing to someone on the street and claiming they want to commit suicide because you see no indication that they want to live. Unless there is strong evidence we can safely assume people don't want to be nuked. "I see no indication" is not the standard. The Iranians didn't start this, they don't seem to want to continue it and it is obvious that their planning will involve basic considerations like not doing things that will get them nuked.
Although hitting the AWS data centre in Tel Aviv seems like it would be a great tit-for-tat strike to really annoy the US and Israelis without threatening them in a way that will provoke a nuclear response or doing real damage to civilians. So I don't see why they'd purposefully hold back on that.
- laughing_man 3mo agoWhat target could the Iranians hit you believe would provoke a nuclear response?
- roenxi 3mo agoThings like the Knesset, attempts to knock out the entire military leadership simultaneously, maybe some sort of attack designed to wipe out a significant % of Israelis although I don't know what that would look like (maybe some sort of hit to take out food distribution or water). Attacks trying to topple the Israeli state, in essence. Knocking out profitable capital is quite unlikely to do it.
- laughing_man 3mo agoI don't think any of that would provoke a nuclear response. As long as the Iranians stay away from NBC attacks, the Israelis aren't going to nuke them.
- sampli 3mo agoSamson option
- JumpCrisscross 3mo ago> What target could the Iranians hit you believe would provoke a nuclear response? Anything existential. (Tehran doesn’t currently have that capability.)
- giardini 3mo agoI don't know what you classify as existential. But unfortunately it is drop-dead easy to make a fission bomb and even easier to make (multiple) dirty bombs. Iran has the pieces to do these things many times over. Hell, by now they could have deployed dirty bombs abroad in multiple locations and we'd never know. The only reason the USA doesn't flatten Iran with nukes is that the USA fears Russia will view it as an "all bets are off!" action and will do the same to Ukraine et al. Which is probably true right now.
- Epa095 3mo agoNo, Ukraine is not the (sole) reason. USA has been in multiple wars since 1945, and never used the bomb again. They know the value of the nuclear tabu, and are not interested in breaking it, independently of the situation in Ukraine. They also have enough conventional weapons to level Iran with those, so they dont need to use nukes. In addition I would hope that even in the morally bankrupt state USA is in today, murdering 92 million people would cause some political problems (but this might be naive of me).
- esseph 3mo ago> In addition I would hope that even in the morally bankrupt state USA is in today, murdering 92 million people would cause some political problems (but this might be naive of me). It might move the needle 15%.
- ericmay 3mo ago> The only reason the USA doesn't flatten Iran with nukes is that the USA fears Russia will view it as an "all bets are off!" action and will do the same to Ukraine et al. Which is probably true right now. That is not the only reason the United States doesn’t flatten Iran with nukes. It’s not even a consideration. How are you even arriving at such a conclusion?