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> because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time... Iran's political leadership is amenable to negotiating but their incumbent milit

> because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time... Iran's political leadership is amenable to negotiating but their incumbent military leadership which now calls the shots aren't [0][1]. The current incumbents in the IRGC and Artesh are now vets who were deployed on the frontlines in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq and are deeply anti-Western as a result. > or they (Iran) will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they (China) are providing to them... This is why Iran has been leveraging Russia as well [2][3]. Russia is trying to link the Ukraine War with the Iran War ("stop giving Ukraine targeting capabilities and we'll stop giving it to Iran"). Iran's military leadership doesn't trust China because they undermined Iran's position on Hormuz by backing the UAE [4], and because hardliners still harbor negative views of China and Eastern culture as undermining the precepts of the Islamic Revolution [5][6][7] and still calling them "uncultured orientals" (شرق زدۀ بی فرهنگ) [0] - https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediation-new-irgc-leaders-crisis-04-23-2026/ https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediati... [1] - https://quwa.org/podcasts/pulse-check/the-islamabad-talks-are-stalling-irans-irgc-crisis-and-pakistans-squandered-moment/ https://quwa.org/podcasts/pulse-check/the-islamabad-talks-ar... [2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-strikes-cia-facilities-prompt-questions-about-possible-russian-role-2026-07-22/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-strikes-cia-f... [3] - https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IB-10_25-Iran-Russia-Partnership_Edited.pdf https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IB-10_25-Ir... [4] - https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/china-maintains-stance-on-disputed-gulf-islands-despite-irans-anger https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/china-maintains-stance-on-... [5] - http://www.imam-khomeini.ir/fa/c78_117016/%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%A8/%D9%86%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%B4%DB%8C_%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B6%D9%88%D8%B9%DB%8C_%D8%A8%D8%B1_%D9%88%D8%B5%DB%8C%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%80_%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C_%D9%80_%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%DB%8C_%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%85_%D8%AE%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C_%D8%B3_/%D8%A7%D8%B2_%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A8%DB%8C%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%86%DA%AF%DB%8C_%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%B2%D8%AF%DA%AF%DB%8C_%D9%88_%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82%D8%B2%D8%AF http://www.imam-khomeini.ir/fa/c78_117016/%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%A7... [6] - https://ensani.ir/fa/article/93161/%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D9%88-%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%85-%DB%8C%D8%A7-%DA%AF%D9%81%D8%AA-%D9%88-%DA%AF%D9%88 https://ensani.ir/fa/article/93161/%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D9%88... [7] - https://psri.ir/?id=a7q4sdl4 https://psri.ir/?id=a7q4sdl4

walrus01 3mo ago
> leadership doesn't trust China because they undermined Iran's position on Hormuz by backing the UAE [4] Would you say that in the broadest possible sense, this is because China cares much more about keeping an unrestricted flow of (not $140-160 a barrel) oil coming from the Persian Gulf, oil/gas exports and outbound flow unrestricted for their own domestic consumption. They think that's much more important, given a choice and the impact of oil NOT flowing to their economies, than supporting the continuation of the IRGC and status-quo leadership in Iran.
- alephnerd 3mo ago
  Yes. But the issue is China doesn't have many options to push back against the IRGC's wish for shahadat. The political and private sector economic leadership in Iran was neutered after Rouhani was not re-appointed by Khamenei, so opposition within the regime is weak and is largely purged. Supporting opposition against the regime is also obviously a no-go as it would both be a diplomatic bruise for China's image as well as risk a Neutral or worst case Pro-American Iran, as well as send a message to Pakistan, North Korea, Laos, and Cambodia that Chinese commitments are only fair-weather. Supporting any intervention by neighboring countries would be diplomatically bruising for China's image and risk a Neutral or worst case Pro-American Iran, as well as send a message to Pakistan, North Korea, Laos, and Cambodia that Chinese commitments are still dependent on American power projection. And the clerical leadership and IRGC (two sides of the same coin - to join the Pasdaran you need to be ideologically vetted by clerical leadership, and a large portion of recruits are products of the religious education system) have complete control over all the organs of Iran's armed forces and it's economy, and hold resentment against both the West and East for being morally and religiously lax as well as capitalist.
  - walrus01 3mo ago
    Within the neighboring region, China has also been sending extensive signals of "we support you and will engage in full trade with you, and retain full diplomatic relationships, etc, no matter what you're doing to your own people domestically" to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Stuff like offering full accreditation to the Taliban-run embassy in Beijing and issuing visas/support for a whole cadre of Taliban officials. If China did an about-face on maintaining friendly relations with the IRGC, that would also be a big signal to the Taliban that maybe their "all weather" relationship with China was a bit more precarious than they previously thought it was. With the recent minor border war between Afghan Taliban and Pakistani forces, closing the major land cargo trade routes of Torkham, Spin Boldak (and flows of cargo) along the AF/PK border, Afghanistan has very recently become much more reliant on import transit trade via Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Much of that for manufactured goods and technology that Afghanistan can't build domestically (just about everything of any technical sophistication) is ultimately manufactured in China and goes through UZ and TJ.

walrus01 3mo ago

> leadership doesn't trust China because they undermined Iran's position on Hormuz by backing the UAE [4] Would you say that in the broadest possible sense, this is because China cares much more about keeping an unrestricted flow of (not $140-160 a barrel) oil coming from the Persian Gulf, oil/gas exports and outbound flow unrestricted for their own domestic consumption. They think that's much more important, given a choice and the impact of oil NOT flowing to their economies, than supporting the continuation of the IRGC and status-quo leadership in Iran.

alephnerd 3mo ago
Yes. But the issue is China doesn't have many options to push back against the IRGC's wish for shahadat. The political and private sector economic leadership in Iran was neutered after Rouhani was not re-appointed by Khamenei, so opposition within the regime is weak and is largely purged. Supporting opposition against the regime is also obviously a no-go as it would both be a diplomatic bruise for China's image as well as risk a Neutral or worst case Pro-American Iran, as well as send a message to Pakistan, North Korea, Laos, and Cambodia that Chinese commitments are only fair-weather. Supporting any intervention by neighboring countries would be diplomatically bruising for China's image and risk a Neutral or worst case Pro-American Iran, as well as send a message to Pakistan, North Korea, Laos, and Cambodia that Chinese commitments are still dependent on American power projection. And the clerical leadership and IRGC (two sides of the same coin - to join the Pasdaran you need to be ideologically vetted by clerical leadership, and a large portion of recruits are products of the religious education system) have complete control over all the organs of Iran's armed forces and it's economy, and hold resentment against both the West and East for being morally and religiously lax as well as capitalist.
- walrus01 3mo ago
  Within the neighboring region, China has also been sending extensive signals of "we support you and will engage in full trade with you, and retain full diplomatic relationships, etc, no matter what you're doing to your own people domestically" to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Stuff like offering full accreditation to the Taliban-run embassy in Beijing and issuing visas/support for a whole cadre of Taliban officials. If China did an about-face on maintaining friendly relations with the IRGC, that would also be a big signal to the Taliban that maybe their "all weather" relationship with China was a bit more precarious than they previously thought it was. With the recent minor border war between Afghan Taliban and Pakistani forces, closing the major land cargo trade routes of Torkham, Spin Boldak (and flows of cargo) along the AF/PK border, Afghanistan has very recently become much more reliant on import transit trade via Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Much of that for manufactured goods and technology that Afghanistan can't build domestically (just about everything of any technical sophistication) is ultimately manufactured in China and goes through UZ and TJ.