4 ms·

Companies are run by people, 100 billion dollar companies are ran by people who want to stay billionaires and will street accordingly. But I'm not sure what we'

Companies are run by people, 100 billion dollar companies are ran by people who want to stay billionaires and will street accordingly. But I'm not sure what we're disagreeing on, yes the talent will migrate, AI industry will eventually settle on some none bubble equilibrium, but that doesn't mean current AI economics is sensible, or inflated hardware costs beyond yield is not danger indicator. Like yeah, risky bets are burning, most people are going to move and carry their technical expertise on instead of unalive themselves or flip burgers, but that's independent of whether business models and broader economy is going to explode.

fooker 3mo ago
> that's independent of whether business models and broader economy is going to explode. It's independent of the former, but not the later. That is my point. Businesses and business models fail all the time, does not mean the 'broader economy is going to explode'. It could, sure. But that has been predicted several hundred times and happened only a few times.
- maxglute 3mo ago
  You're making a classic logic error by accidentally equating corner bodega with trillion dollar keystone industry. Business models fail all the time, trillion business models that underpins entire macro economic growth engine exploding and causing massive contagion happens rarely, not even generationally. But when they do the leading bubble mathematic indicators are more clear.
  - redwood 2mo ago
    You may be conflating magnitude of dollars invested in AI being at records with the fact that they're actually a lower percentage of GDP than other speculative bubbles have been ... this is important to understand because the magnitude of a slow down maybe much smaller than you seem to think
    - maxglute 2mo ago
      Direct DC/AI capex lower bound ~2.5% gdp already comparable to dotcom / dark fiber. Include down stream supply chain / infra and its ~5% - railway territory. Either way relative magnitude of AI financial footprint is systemic risk is within historic bubble territory. Also important to understand AI basically only major growth driver, other sectors underperforming, there's nothing to cushion, and fallout maybe much larger than you seem to think. Strip away IT 90s baseline economy was still growing 3%, strip out AI, 2026 baseline growth ~1%, negative once you factor in money printing and historic ~3% (and growing) burnt in debt servicing. Stack on hardware depreciation, and I wouldn't say contagion magnitude will be slow/small.

fooker 3mo ago

> that's independent of whether business models and broader economy is going to explode. It's independent of the former, but not the later. That is my point. Businesses and business models fail all the time, does not mean the 'broader economy is going to explode'. It could, sure. But that has been predicted several hundred times and happened only a few times.

maxglute 3mo ago
You're making a classic logic error by accidentally equating corner bodega with trillion dollar keystone industry. Business models fail all the time, trillion business models that underpins entire macro economic growth engine exploding and causing massive contagion happens rarely, not even generationally. But when they do the leading bubble mathematic indicators are more clear.
- redwood 2mo ago
  You may be conflating magnitude of dollars invested in AI being at records with the fact that they're actually a lower percentage of GDP than other speculative bubbles have been ... this is important to understand because the magnitude of a slow down maybe much smaller than you seem to think
  - maxglute 2mo ago
    Direct DC/AI capex lower bound ~2.5% gdp already comparable to dotcom / dark fiber. Include down stream supply chain / infra and its ~5% - railway territory. Either way relative magnitude of AI financial footprint is systemic risk is within historic bubble territory. Also important to understand AI basically only major growth driver, other sectors underperforming, there's nothing to cushion, and fallout maybe much larger than you seem to think. Strip away IT 90s baseline economy was still growing 3%, strip out AI, 2026 baseline growth ~1%, negative once you factor in money printing and historic ~3% (and growing) burnt in debt servicing. Stack on hardware depreciation, and I wouldn't say contagion magnitude will be slow/small.