> Nothing quite dampens your belief in hard work paying off Such a belief was not grounded in data to begin with. Like a religion, its based in faith. Humans a

> Nothing quite dampens your belief in hard work paying off Such a belief was not grounded in data to begin with. Like a religion, its based in faith. Humans are tricky, emotion and vibe driven; suboptimal mental models die hard. Humans want to believe in free will, they want to believe that their success was because of hard work and not luck. Older cohorts benefited from a golden period in US macro history that will not repeat. They were born at the right time, acquired assets at the right time, and had little job competition with great comp and working arrangements (single income could support a family of four, a single family home, etc). We are in a much different, punishing macro now. Asset prices are high, opportunities for income needed above basic needs are low, and youth unemployment is higher than the aggregate. Citations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Dream#Literary_commentary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Dream#Literary_commen... ("The vaunted American dream, the idea that life will get better, that progress is inevitable if we obey the rules and work hard, that material prosperity is assured, has been replaced by a hard and bitter truth. The American dream, we now know, is a lie. We will all be sacrificed. The virus of corporate abuse—the perverted belief that only corporate profit matters—has spread to outsource our jobs, cut the budgets of our schools, close our libraries, and plague our communities with foreclosures and unemployment." -- Chris Hedges from his book "Days of Destruction, Days of Revolt") 49% of young adults live at home, up 12 points since 2019. An economist says the fallout will reshape marriage, kids, and home-buying - https://fortune.com/2026/07/09/half-young-adults-live-home-financial-support-parents/ https://fortune.com/2026/07/09/half-young-adults-live-home-f... | https://archive.today/1uB8d https://archive.today/1uB8d - July 9th, 2026 (Federal Reserve survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2026-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2025-executive-summary.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2026-economic-we...) > The data comes from the Fed’s Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households, which found that 49% of adults ages 18 to 29 live with their parents, and another 47% of adults in that same age group received help from someone outside their household to pay an expense—money toward a cell phone bill, general living expenses, or housing costs. Notably, those aren’t the same population, according to Laura Ullrich, director of economics at Indeed Hiring Lab, who has studied household formation trends for years. “You’ve got to think about this as a Venn diagram,” Ullrich told Fortune. “Forty-nine percent of them are living at home. 47% of them are getting help from someone outside their household, which doesn’t include those living at home. There’s a lot of adult children getting financial support from their parents.” 42% of adults rely on their parents for financial support - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48937288 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48937288 - July 2026 31% of Wealth Owned by People Over 70 - https://www.apolloacademy.com/31-percent-of-wealth-owned-by-people-over-70/ https://www.apolloacademy.com/31-percent-of-wealth-owned-by-... - December 7th, 2025 The housing crisis is pushing Gen Z into crypto and economic nihilism - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46079617 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46079617 - November 2025 Why millennials feel hopeless about the economy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46062082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46062082 - November 2025 Most Americans don't earn enough to afford basic costs of living, analysis finds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 - May 2025 (Report: https://www.lisep.org/mql https://www.lisep.org/mql) Nearly half of Americans age 18 to 29 are living with their parents - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34086622 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34086622 - December 2022 https://www.cato.org/blog/81-say-they-cant-afford-pay-higher-taxes-next-year https://www.cato.org/blog/81-say-they-cant-afford-pay-higher... - April 14th, 2025 ("A recent survey by the Cato Institute and YouGov paints a troubling picture: 62 percent of Americans aged 18–29 say they hold a “favorable view” of socialism, and 34 percent say the same of communism.") https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/beautiful-minds/the-role-of-luck-in-life-success-is-far-greater-than-we-realized/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/beautiful-minds/the-rol... ("The Role of Luck in Life Success Is Far Greater Than We Realized") https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/01/144958/if-youre-so-smart-why-arent-you-rich-turns-out-its-just-chance/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/01/144958/if-youre-... | Ref: https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07068 https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07068 ("Talent vs. Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure") https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/analysis-if-youre-rich-youre-more-lucky-than-smart-and-theres-math-to-prove-it https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/analysis-i... ("Analysis: If you’re rich, you’re more lucky than smart. And there’s math to prove it") https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-you-realize-how-much-luck-goes-into-investing-you-might-change-your-methods-2017-11-13 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-you-realize-how-much-... ("When you realize how much luck goes into investing, you might change your methods")