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Nothing quite dampens your belief in hard work paying off when you see an openly corrupt government self-dealing billions of dollars.

toomuchtodo 3mo ago
> Nothing quite dampens your belief in hard work paying off Such a belief was not grounded in data to begin with. Like a religion, its based in faith. Humans are tricky, emotion and vibe driven; suboptimal mental models die hard. Humans want to believe in free will, they want to believe that their success was because of hard work and not luck. Older cohorts benefited from a golden period in US macro history that will not repeat. They were born at the right time, acquired assets at the right time, and had little job competition with great comp and working arrangements (single income could support a family of four, a single family home, etc). We are in a much different, punishing macro now. Asset prices are high, opportunities for income needed above basic needs are low, and youth unemployment is higher than the aggregate. Citations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Dream#Literary_commentary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Dream#Literary_commen... ("The vaunted American dream, the idea that life will get better, that progress is inevitable if we obey the rules and work hard, that material prosperity is assured, has been replaced by a hard and bitter truth. The American dream, we now know, is a lie. We will all be sacrificed. The virus of corporate abuse—the perverted belief that only corporate profit matters—has spread to outsource our jobs, cut the budgets of our schools, close our libraries, and plague our communities with foreclosures and unemployment." -- Chris Hedges from his book "Days of Destruction, Days of Revolt") 49% of young adults live at home, up 12 points since 2019. An economist says the fallout will reshape marriage, kids, and home-buying - https://fortune.com/2026/07/09/half-young-adults-live-home-financial-support-parents/ https://fortune.com/2026/07/09/half-young-adults-live-home-f... | https://archive.today/1uB8d https://archive.today/1uB8d - July 9th, 2026 (Federal Reserve survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2026-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2025-executive-summary.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2026-economic-we...) > The data comes from the Fed’s Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households, which found that 49% of adults ages 18 to 29 live with their parents, and another 47% of adults in that same age group received help from someone outside their household to pay an expense—money toward a cell phone bill, general living expenses, or housing costs. Notably, those aren’t the same population, according to Laura Ullrich, director of economics at Indeed Hiring Lab, who has studied household formation trends for years. “You’ve got to think about this as a Venn diagram,” Ullrich told Fortune. “Forty-nine percent of them are living at home. 47% of them are getting help from someone outside their household, which doesn’t include those living at home. There’s a lot of adult children getting financial support from their parents.” 42% of adults rely on their parents for financial support - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48937288 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48937288 - July 2026 31% of Wealth Owned by People Over 70 - https://www.apolloacademy.com/31-percent-of-wealth-owned-by-people-over-70/ https://www.apolloacademy.com/31-percent-of-wealth-owned-by-... - December 7th, 2025 The housing crisis is pushing Gen Z into crypto and economic nihilism - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46079617 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46079617 - November 2025 Why millennials feel hopeless about the economy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46062082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46062082 - November 2025 Most Americans don't earn enough to afford basic costs of living, analysis finds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 - May 2025 (Report: https://www.lisep.org/mql https://www.lisep.org/mql) Nearly half of Americans age 18 to 29 are living with their parents - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34086622 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34086622 - December 2022 https://www.cato.org/blog/81-say-they-cant-afford-pay-higher-taxes-next-year https://www.cato.org/blog/81-say-they-cant-afford-pay-higher... - April 14th, 2025 ("A recent survey by the Cato Institute and YouGov paints a troubling picture: 62 percent of Americans aged 18–29 say they hold a “favorable view” of socialism, and 34 percent say the same of communism.") https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/beautiful-minds/the-role-of-luck-in-life-success-is-far-greater-than-we-realized/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/beautiful-minds/the-rol... ("The Role of Luck in Life Success Is Far Greater Than We Realized") https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/01/144958/if-youre-so-smart-why-arent-you-rich-turns-out-its-just-chance/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/01/144958/if-youre-... | Ref: https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07068 https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07068 ("Talent vs. Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure") https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/analysis-if-youre-rich-youre-more-lucky-than-smart-and-theres-math-to-prove-it https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/analysis-i... ("Analysis: If you’re rich, you’re more lucky than smart. And there’s math to prove it") https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-you-realize-how-much-luck-goes-into-investing-you-might-change-your-methods-2017-11-13 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-you-realize-how-much-... ("When you realize how much luck goes into investing, you might change your methods")
- zaptheimpaler 3mo ago
  All of this macro only ever obfuscates the real picture. The rich are getting much, much richer. The houses are more expensive because people obstruct construction. The salaries haven’t kept up with CEOs salaries or productivity because the employers have more power. None of this is some mysterious inevitable macro, it’s a conscious choice of an oligarchic system to crush people and launder the blame.
  - EarthAmbassador 3mo ago
    No, people do not oppose construction. The very wealthy have chosen not to build for average people, but instead build for a higher net wealth demographic. Also, productivity gains are not shared downstream, which is a choice. Salaries and wages have not kept up with CEO salaries since the late 1970s--also a choice. It all adds up to a systematic shift of wealth upward at the expense of a healthy middle class, while foreclosing all social mobility to the working class.
elmer2 3mo ago
[flagged]
- TheCoelacanth 3mo ago
  Transparently corrupt maybe.
- watwut 3mo ago
  You dont know much about Weinmar, do you? And also, this administratiom is literally the most corrupt in history. You dont get to support them and prentend outrage over Biden or democrats.
- roto 3mo ago
  You don't have to whataboutism this, both "sides" can have bad actors it can be deeper than the idiotic team sport dichotomy of US politics. There is a reason leftists/DSA are gaining so much ground. People realize that the dems in power are really just "republican-light" and nothing meaningful is going to change under them. Are you also in favour of dropping medicaid and other popular programs? The US has popular socialist programs already but everyone just shuts their eyes and closes their ears and pretends that is somehow not a socialist program and is not popular, even among the right. How many services does the govt have to provide before it is deemed too "socialist"?
boznz 3mo ago
All governments are corrupt even poster children like here in NZ, its all about degrees of corruption. however one system of politics allows you to call this out and potentially vote out the perpetrators, the other will suppress you, lock you up and, once you've fallen down that rabbit hole, never vote again. Choose your poison.
- Timon3 3mo ago
  Not only is the current US government on a completely different level of corruption, but it's also actively trying to suppress dissent in increasingly forceful ways. And they're working hard to export this anti-human ideology all over the world.
- danwills 3mo ago
  I agree with your sentiment but myself I'm not convinced that either politics or corruption are actually (in reality) one-dimensional as you're suggesting, despite fairly widely reported trends towards world-wide political polarisation, and various different groups/parties/companies trying to appear as if they don't harbour corruption in a black-and-white way (how ridiculous!?) these things affect all systems to varying (nonzero) degrees. I think there are actually still plenty of other dimensions/axes/structures one can think and argue/discuss about even if not many people (or politicians) actually do! Authoritarianism surely sucks on so many levels though, I will echo that for sure!
deleted 3mo ago
[deleted]

toomuchtodo 3mo ago

> Nothing quite dampens your belief in hard work paying off Such a belief was not grounded in data to begin with. Like a religion, its based in faith. Humans are tricky, emotion and vibe driven; suboptimal mental models die hard. Humans want to believe in free will, they want to believe that their success was because of hard work and not luck. Older cohorts benefited from a golden period in US macro history that will not repeat. They were born at the right time, acquired assets at the right time, and had little job competition with great comp and working arrangements (single income could support a family of four, a single family home, etc). We are in a much different, punishing macro now. Asset prices are high, opportunities for income needed above basic needs are low, and youth unemployment is higher than the aggregate. Citations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Dream#Literary_commentary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Dream#Literary_commen... ("The vaunted American dream, the idea that life will get better, that progress is inevitable if we obey the rules and work hard, that material prosperity is assured, has been replaced by a hard and bitter truth. The American dream, we now know, is a lie. We will all be sacrificed. The virus of corporate abuse—the perverted belief that only corporate profit matters—has spread to outsource our jobs, cut the budgets of our schools, close our libraries, and plague our communities with foreclosures and unemployment." -- Chris Hedges from his book "Days of Destruction, Days of Revolt") 49% of young adults live at home, up 12 points since 2019. An economist says the fallout will reshape marriage, kids, and home-buying - https://fortune.com/2026/07/09/half-young-adults-live-home-financial-support-parents/ https://fortune.com/2026/07/09/half-young-adults-live-home-f... | https://archive.today/1uB8d https://archive.today/1uB8d - July 9th, 2026 (Federal Reserve survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2026-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2025-executive-summary.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2026-economic-we...) > The data comes from the Fed’s Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households, which found that 49% of adults ages 18 to 29 live with their parents, and another 47% of adults in that same age group received help from someone outside their household to pay an expense—money toward a cell phone bill, general living expenses, or housing costs. Notably, those aren’t the same population, according to Laura Ullrich, director of economics at Indeed Hiring Lab, who has studied household formation trends for years. “You’ve got to think about this as a Venn diagram,” Ullrich told Fortune. “Forty-nine percent of them are living at home. 47% of them are getting help from someone outside their household, which doesn’t include those living at home. There’s a lot of adult children getting financial support from their parents.” 42% of adults rely on their parents for financial support - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48937288 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48937288 - July 2026 31% of Wealth Owned by People Over 70 - https://www.apolloacademy.com/31-percent-of-wealth-owned-by-people-over-70/ https://www.apolloacademy.com/31-percent-of-wealth-owned-by-... - December 7th, 2025 The housing crisis is pushing Gen Z into crypto and economic nihilism - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46079617 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46079617 - November 2025 Why millennials feel hopeless about the economy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46062082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46062082 - November 2025 Most Americans don't earn enough to afford basic costs of living, analysis finds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 - May 2025 (Report: https://www.lisep.org/mql https://www.lisep.org/mql) Nearly half of Americans age 18 to 29 are living with their parents - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34086622 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34086622 - December 2022 https://www.cato.org/blog/81-say-they-cant-afford-pay-higher-taxes-next-year https://www.cato.org/blog/81-say-they-cant-afford-pay-higher... - April 14th, 2025 ("A recent survey by the Cato Institute and YouGov paints a troubling picture: 62 percent of Americans aged 18–29 say they hold a “favorable view” of socialism, and 34 percent say the same of communism.") https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/beautiful-minds/the-role-of-luck-in-life-success-is-far-greater-than-we-realized/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/beautiful-minds/the-rol... ("The Role of Luck in Life Success Is Far Greater Than We Realized") https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/01/144958/if-youre-so-smart-why-arent-you-rich-turns-out-its-just-chance/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/01/144958/if-youre-... | Ref: https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07068 https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07068 ("Talent vs. Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure") https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/analysis-if-youre-rich-youre-more-lucky-than-smart-and-theres-math-to-prove-it https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/analysis-i... ("Analysis: If you’re rich, you’re more lucky than smart. And there’s math to prove it") https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-you-realize-how-much-luck-goes-into-investing-you-might-change-your-methods-2017-11-13 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-you-realize-how-much-... ("When you realize how much luck goes into investing, you might change your methods")

zaptheimpaler 3mo ago
All of this macro only ever obfuscates the real picture. The rich are getting much, much richer. The houses are more expensive because people obstruct construction. The salaries haven’t kept up with CEOs salaries or productivity because the employers have more power. None of this is some mysterious inevitable macro, it’s a conscious choice of an oligarchic system to crush people and launder the blame.
- EarthAmbassador 3mo ago
  No, people do not oppose construction. The very wealthy have chosen not to build for average people, but instead build for a higher net wealth demographic. Also, productivity gains are not shared downstream, which is a choice. Salaries and wages have not kept up with CEO salaries since the late 1970s--also a choice. It all adds up to a systematic shift of wealth upward at the expense of a healthy middle class, while foreclosing all social mobility to the working class.

elmer2 3mo ago

[flagged]

TheCoelacanth 3mo ago
Transparently corrupt maybe.
watwut 3mo ago
You dont know much about Weinmar, do you? And also, this administratiom is literally the most corrupt in history. You dont get to support them and prentend outrage over Biden or democrats.
roto 3mo ago
You don't have to whataboutism this, both "sides" can have bad actors it can be deeper than the idiotic team sport dichotomy of US politics. There is a reason leftists/DSA are gaining so much ground. People realize that the dems in power are really just "republican-light" and nothing meaningful is going to change under them. Are you also in favour of dropping medicaid and other popular programs? The US has popular socialist programs already but everyone just shuts their eyes and closes their ears and pretends that is somehow not a socialist program and is not popular, even among the right. How many services does the govt have to provide before it is deemed too "socialist"?

boznz 3mo ago

All governments are corrupt even poster children like here in NZ, its all about degrees of corruption. however one system of politics allows you to call this out and potentially vote out the perpetrators, the other will suppress you, lock you up and, once you've fallen down that rabbit hole, never vote again. Choose your poison.

Timon3 3mo ago
Not only is the current US government on a completely different level of corruption, but it's also actively trying to suppress dissent in increasingly forceful ways. And they're working hard to export this anti-human ideology all over the world.
danwills 3mo ago
I agree with your sentiment but myself I'm not convinced that either politics or corruption are actually (in reality) one-dimensional as you're suggesting, despite fairly widely reported trends towards world-wide political polarisation, and various different groups/parties/companies trying to appear as if they don't harbour corruption in a black-and-white way (how ridiculous!?) these things affect all systems to varying (nonzero) degrees. I think there are actually still plenty of other dimensions/axes/structures one can think and argue/discuss about even if not many people (or politicians) actually do! Authoritarianism surely sucks on so many levels though, I will echo that for sure!

deleted 3mo ago

[deleted]